Eight Reasons Why Obama Might Lose 11/4

Politics International Politics
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08 Reasons

[quote]
2.He’s played too much defense.

Though Obama's campaign has run bazillions of ads criticizing McCain, they've stayed away from trying to raise questions about McCain's character and his judgment—questions the McCain campaign has been raising relentlessly about Obama and that Obama has had to answer.

It's absurd, for instance, that more ink has been spilled about the judgment Obama showed in the 1990s when working on education reform with former Vietnam-era radical Bill Ayers than about McCain's judgment in 2002 and 2003 to cheerlead for the invasion of Iraq.[/quote]
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  1. Because there just might be enough people stupid enough to believe the lies about Obama being a “socialist”, a “terrorist”, a “Muslim”, or an “Ayrab”.
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It could be even worse America, although one would expected the Anti-Christ to be a socialist, a terrorist, and a Muslim.

[quote]In Luke 10:18 Jesus I beheld Satan as Lightning fall from Heaven. How does a Jewish Rabbi, which Jesus is credited with being (John 1:38), say in HEBREW, that Satan is like LIGHTNING from heaven?
Barack, also transliterated as Baraq in Hebrew, is LIGHTNING (Strongs Hebrew word 1300). Even in Greek, Barak is LIGHTNING (Strongs Greek word 913) for the name of a person!
The ONLY WAY, a Jewish Rabbi can say in Hebrew that SATAN is LIGHTNING is, SATAN BARACK! [/quote]
o.bamapost.com/

Maybe that’s why TC was calling him “Baraq” :slight_smile:

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Can just imagine the outroar if tommy525 said the Oba was the AntiChrist?

Lucky all I said was that his resume was a little light.

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There’s a high possibility that Obama will lose PA next Tuesday. He seems to take it for granted that polls showing him leading in PA will assure him a victory in the state.

McCain is quite popular here in my town in Montgomery County. And this is not even a rural county. This is in the white collar Philadelphia suburbs where Democrats outnumber Republicans almost 3 to 1 in voter registration. Despite the Democrats’ advantage in registration, this region finds McCain’s moderate form of Republicanism appealing. This Democratic-leaning region hates Bush, but McCain’s maverick Republicanism has a high appeal here.

All McCain has to do is come within 5-6 percentage points behind Obama in the Philly suburbs, and the state (and the election) is his.

That’s why I’m concerned Obama may be too complacent for his own good.

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Personally, I think McCain will lose Pennsylvania. But even if you are right about PA and the polls are wrong (and they’d have to be really wrong – in the last survey I saw of 30 polls, 29 had Obama winning), how do you make the jump that losing PA would cost Obama the election?

With Obama currently on track to win about 348* electoral votes, and McCain 190, Obama – losing PA would just mean that Obama wins nationally by 327 to 211.

Even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, it is still going to be a landslide for Obama.

(*That’s fivethirtyeight’s current poll average estimate, btw. Others my vary, but all of them that I’ve seen have Obama winning by a large margin, even if the numbers are not exactly the same.)

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That’s pretty funny. :laughing:

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…because the president selected by popular vote might not get enough electoral colege votes to be elected president?

Ever since I realized this, I knew we were doomed.

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Computer Hal knows who’s gonna win

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[quote]Personally, I think McCain will lose Pennsylvania. But even if you are right about PA and the polls are wrong (and they’d have to be really wrong – in the last survey I saw of 30 polls, 29 had Obama winning), how do you make the jump that losing PA would cost Obama the election?

With Obama currently on track to win about 348* electoral votes, and McCain 190, Obama – losing PA would just mean that Obama wins nationally by 327 to 211.

Even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, it is still going to be a landslide for Obama. [/quote]

The 5 red states that Obama has the strongest chance of stealing are:

  1. Colorado
  2. New Mexico
  3. Nevada
  4. Iowa
  5. Virginia

The probability that Obama will steal 5 out of 5 is low. McCain will probably retain 2 of those 5 states (could be Virginia and Nevada). I’m not saying that Obama can’t steal all 5 states. I want to be realistic here.

Obama’s chances are very good in Virginia, The state though has a lot of people and industries with connections to the military and defense industry. Lots of veterans and military bases like Norfolk in the southeastern part of the state. This is where McCain will have his highest margin of victory in Virginia.

Even though Obama is in a much better situation today to win Virginia than John Kerry was in 2004, McCain will give Obama a run for his money in Virginia.

And Nevada outside of its Latino population is not going to vote for Obama. This is a desert yee haw land whose white population frowns on “socialist policies”.

Most likely Obama steals 3 out of 5: Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. That’s 21 electoral votes.

A McCain win in Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) will wipe out those 21 electoral vote steals by Obama. If McCain steals PA, Obama must steal all 5 of those 5 states to reach 270. It can be done, but that’s a daunting task.

I think Obama will win PA by a slim margin, but keep in mind that Bush lost PA by only 2.5% points in 2004. McCain is far more popular here than Bush was in 2004.

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Thanks for the thoughtful response, reztop. I can see your point about Pennsylvania’s importance when you lay out the rest of the results the way you have. I guess PA’s importance depends on how you see the rest of the key states shaking out. I think Obama will win Florida and Ohio as well, which, of course, would make Colorado, NM and the like all pretty much sidenotes (PA too).

I guess we’ll what happens soon enough. (I still don’t believe that we will know the exact electoral vote totals by November 5, but if Obama’s win looks to be enough of a landslide I suspect McCain will call off the legal challenges and allow the result to be effectively finalized fairly soon after the election.)

H

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If McCain can make a convincing enough case in the last few days to flip deep blue PA, it’d be one heck of an argument that would more than likely cause nearby toss-up states to go McCain as well – OH, IN, VA. It would then all come down to FL, again.

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McCain should have been hitting the socialist angle from day one instead of wasting his time on the peripheral BS.

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No one here has yet mentioned the giant elephant in the room: Diebold.

Computers are very easily hacked. Everyone knows this. This is non-partisan paranoia - whoever controls the machines, controls the outcome of the election. Knowing what we know about how vulnerable computers are to hacking and viruses, how can anyone trust the process of electronic voting? There are certain times when the old ways are better. At least counting paper votes leaves a paper trail.

Obama is leading in all the polls. If McCain by some stroke wins…it will only confirm what many people have long suspected. It will make a sham of centuries of democracy. I am not being paranoid here. This is a justifiable concern. Who watches the watchmen?

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Refreshing to see someone in the media actually press the Obamessiah’s campaign for real answers rather than simply accept the Obamessiah’s smoke and mirrors.

Check out that video clip.

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[quote=“Tigerman”]Refreshing to see someone in the media actually press the Obamessiah’s campaign for real answers rather than simply accept the Obamessiah’s smoke and mirrors.

Check out that video clip.[/quote]

Good points. Good video. Anyone who expects to repeat the mistakes of the past (higher taxes as a solution for endemic poverty) and achieve different results is heading for some major disillusionment.

Still, the problem wouldn’t be as dire if George Bush hadn’t doubled the national debt and wrecked the economy because of his extremist fixations.

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You betcha, Tigerman, I mean I’m sure if the media had just pushed a little harder on Obama about the things that matter, you know terrs, having a weird name and stuff, why Captain Ricketty and the Alaskan airhead would win this thing hands down! And despite the worst financial chaos in eighty years, the legacy of unnecessary war and all that stuff.

HG

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The Alaskan Airhead (aka Palin) has said shes going to run for President in 2012 if this current campaign sees her and McCain losing. She lives up to her reputation once again.

I still hold McCain responsible for even selecting her.

I doubt that she will even make the GOP nomination as President in 2012 tho.

Palin as President? That is one of the stupidest things I can imagine.

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But Tommy, you voted for them! :laughing:

HG

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[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]But Tommy, you voted for them! :laughing:

HG[/quote]

I voted for HIM, I got her for free.