[quote]Personally, I think McCain will lose Pennsylvania. But even if you are right about PA and the polls are wrong (and they’d have to be really wrong – in the last survey I saw of 30 polls, 29 had Obama winning), how do you make the jump that losing PA would cost Obama the election?
With Obama currently on track to win about 348* electoral votes, and McCain 190, Obama – losing PA would just mean that Obama wins nationally by 327 to 211.
Even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, it is still going to be a landslide for Obama. [/quote]
The 5 red states that Obama has the strongest chance of stealing are:
- New Mexico
The probability that Obama will steal 5 out of 5 is low. McCain will probably retain 2 of those 5 states (could be Virginia and Nevada). I’m not saying that Obama can’t steal all 5 states. I want to be realistic here.
Obama’s chances are very good in Virginia, The state though has a lot of people and industries with connections to the military and defense industry. Lots of veterans and military bases like Norfolk in the southeastern part of the state. This is where McCain will have his highest margin of victory in Virginia.
Even though Obama is in a much better situation today to win Virginia than John Kerry was in 2004, McCain will give Obama a run for his money in Virginia.
And Nevada outside of its Latino population is not going to vote for Obama. This is a desert yee haw land whose white population frowns on “socialist policies”.
Most likely Obama steals 3 out of 5: Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. That’s 21 electoral votes.
A McCain win in Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) will wipe out those 21 electoral vote steals by Obama. If McCain steals PA, Obama must steal all 5 of those 5 states to reach 270. It can be done, but that’s a daunting task.
I think Obama will win PA by a slim margin, but keep in mind that Bush lost PA by only 2.5% points in 2004. McCain is far more popular here than Bush was in 2004.