[quote=“TainanCowboy”]Dr. K is quite clear in cautioning against drawing too close a VN - Iraq parralel.[/quote] Which is precisely what I stated:[quote=“Jaboney”]1) he questions the current administration’s assessment of the situation, its means of measuring success, and introduces the dreaded Vietnam analogy (which is limited and qualified).[/quote] The significance of the Vietnam analogy is that he introduces it all–the White House most certainly will not–and does not dismiss it. It’s application is limited, and qualified, but it is relevant.
[quote=“fred smith”]In fact, his Vietnam analogy would seem to strengthen the view that Tet was a success for America and it was only the lack of political will at home that was to blame. Hence, it is not Bush’s problem but one of the body politic and who is beating the same drums of failure again? The Left. So take the message from Kissinger as being one of we should be united behind the president and we will win.[/quote] If this is Kissinger’s means of rallying the populace, it’s a stunning failure. (In fairness, the guy’s never had “the common touch” like W., but then, I share the lack. shrug)
If the president, having been able to rally popular support for his Iraqi adventure, is unable to maintain that support, who’s to blame? That part of the population unwilling to endure a “war that does not end”? How about those who supported the president because they felt Iraq’s WMDs posed a threat, only to learn that threat wasn’t true? How about those led to believe that Saddam was connected to 9/11, who have since learned otherwise? Those who felt helping establish an Arab democracy in the region was worthwhile, only to learn that the democracy taking shape looks too much like the one next door in Iraq? With all the reasons for getting rid of Saddam, the administration’s decision to sell this adventure for all the wrong reasons seems a miscalculation at best. I can’t blame anyone for withdrawing their support; left, right, or unaligned.
Again, if the international community declines to sign up for this adventure, or signs up and then withdraws, whose fault is that? Does everyone, save the neocons, lack resolve?
Kissinger sets forth two principles: “Military success is difficult to sustain unless buttressed by domestic support. And an international framework within which the new Iraq can find its place needs to be fostered.” Has the administration been able to maintain either? No.
Kissinger’s hardly a peaceable flower child. His political methods have always been unapologetically ruthless. I’m not saying that he thinks Bush & Co. were wrong to march on Baghdad, only that according to his analysis, they’ve gone about it the wrong way. Read his concluding paragraphs and ask yourself how many of his questions invite a positive answer.
[quote=“Kissinger”]Is it then possible to speak of a national army at all? Today the Iraqi forces are in their majority composed of Shiites, and the insurrection is mostly in traditional Sunni areas. It thus foreshadows a return to the traditional Sunni-Shiite conflict, only with reversed capabilities. These forces may cooperate in quelling the Sunni insurrection. But will they, even when adequately trained, be willing to quell Shiite militias in the name of the nation? Do they obey the ayatollahs, especially Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, or the national government in Baghdad?
And if these two entities are functionally the same, can the national army make its writ run in non-Shiite areas except as an instrument of repression? And is it then still possible to maintain a democratic state?
The ultimate test of progress will therefore be the extent to which the Iraqi armed forces reflect – at least to some degree – the ethnic diversity of the country and are accepted by the population at large as an expression of the nation. Drawing Sunni leaders into the political process is an important part of an anti-insurgent strategy. Failing that, the process of building security forces may become the prelude to a civil war.
[b]Can a genuine nation emerge in Iraq through constitutional means?
The answer to that question will determine whether Iraq becomes a signpost for a reformed Middle East or the pit of an ever-spreading conflict.[/b] For these reasons, [color=blue]a withdrawal schedule should be accompanied by some political initiative inviting an international framework for Iraq’s future. Some of our allies may prefer to act as bystanders, but reality will not permit this for their own safety. Their cooperation is needed, not so much for the military as for the political task, which will test, above all, the West’s statesmanship in shaping a global system relevant to its necessities.[/color][/quote]
Who is responsible for taking that political initiative, those locked out of the process, or those at the center? I suggested “greater statesmanship is required on all sides, but “Western statesmanship” and “Western leadership” have been diplomatic code words for “American statesmanship and leadership” since WWII ended America’s period of splendid isolation.” Do you disagree?