Jlick posted comments a while back about some financial guru who published a book on investing in the stock market that had a picture of a bullseye on the cover. I’ve forgotten the name of the book and the author, but I saw it in Eslite one day, browsed through it and realized I lacked time or brainpower to make it through such technical advice. But one comment the author made stuck with me. He noted that when duck hunting one shouldn’t aim at the ducks, but should instead aim where the ducks are going to be. The same holds true for investing. The wise investor will calculate what companies are likely to do well down the road and invest in them.
In that vein, I’ve been trying to figure lately what might be a hot technology that will sell massive quantities in the near future and which is reliant on a product or component that is made mostly by one company (preferably a fairly small company) that holds the patents or otherwise has some strategic advantage over potential competitors.
I titled this finding the next Ebay, because if one had invested in that company in the Fall of 1999, ones investment would have multiplied by more than 20 in less than a year:
But I’m not interested in online auction sites per se. I’m interested in predicting the next Amazon.com, the next google, the next i-pod before it happens. I’m nowhere near placing my bet yet, but the following are the types of potential areas where I could imagine massive sales in the future and if I feel confident enough I’d like to bet on that one key company, as described above:
3G and next generation cell phones
next generation DVD (BlueRay v. HD-DVD)
on the latter see finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EBAY&t= … z=m&q=l&c=
So what do you think? What technology will be ubiquitous in 3 years and what company will manufacture 90% of that technology or a key component of it?