On September 2 astrophycist Frank Drake passed away at the age of 92. He was most famous for the Drake Equation, which he thought could be used to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.
The equation was formulated in 1961 when the only known element was the rate of star formation, about 30 a year. Today there are about an estimated 10 billion Earth-aized planets and moons in the galaxy (it’s thought most stars have planets).
The Drake equation is:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
and
R ∗ = the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy f p = the fraction of those stars that have planets n e = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets f l = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point f i = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations) f c = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[5][6]
The last three numders are pretty well just guesses.
So, where are they?
I know little about this equation but I wonder why it doesn’t include length of time for signals to reach Earth after a civilization is able to release detectable signals.
Drake’s equation gives an estimate of the number of signal producing ET civilisations in our galaxy only. The milky way is “merely” 100k light years or so across, and so distance from Earth isn’t an important variable here if we’re talking about picking up electromagnetic signals
My best guess right now is that any intelligent civilization (like ours) is pretty much restricted to its own solar system and not likely to ever escape that. Within our own solar system, we will be hard-pressed to survive for another 200-300 years at our current technological level of evolvement or above. I expect that within the next 200-300 years some doomsday event will unfurl, whether it be an asteroid, AI, world hunger, or just a nuclear holocaust, I am not sure.
Several civilizations on EArth. Some open, some hidden.
While the stars are beautiful, I wonder why we look upwards for intelligent life, instead of to-the-side, or within.
In not sure if they ‘rule the world’. That’s disputed right now. Many groups are powerful and influential, but no single faction has outright say any more… There’s a balance of forces, and that’s healthy.
Earth is like a web-forum where 3 or 4 different moderators have a degree of admin rights. They keep overruling each other, and reversing each other’s decisions.
And this good article about Super-Earths, which,as the name implies, are Earth-like planets which are bigger than ours but even more hospitable to life. It really cuts back on the Goldilocks zone argument (that a planet, to be habilable, has to be like Earth, not too hot or not too cold), as well as fine-tuning, the idea that the Universe, to be capable of supporting life, has to be designed that way.
The fine-tuned concept has nothing to do with goldilocks planets in a tight habitable zone. I skimmed through the end, but saw nothing on that point.
Unless one of these superearths formed after its host star collapsed to a dwarf, I wonder how long the geological / seismic activity of a rocky planet persists. Look at Mars. That said, I guess the bigger they are, the longer they’ll have enough juice for a mag field.
I wonder if Elon realizes that he has most of what one would need to synthesize a magnetic field on Mars. A way to get there, solar generation, energy storage and delivery.
Edit, I guess generate is a better term than synthesize, but it would be a synthetic field
