Japan tells its companies in Taiwan ‘you’re on your own’ if China invades FDI has slumped as businesses are warned to take on burden of protecting their staff if Beijing attacks
This is kind of worrying as my working assumption so far has been that there would be plenty of time for myself to get out before any lethal dangers. Has anybody done any concrete preparations for this? What is the likelihood of not being able to get out in time?
It depends how the war starts, if it begins with a ground invasion, which is probably quite unlikely, then we will know weeks or maybe even months in advance, but if it starts with air raids targeting military bases and critical infrastructure, followed by a naval blockade, which is probably quite likely, then there may be little to zero warning outside intelligence circles. Once they have a blockade in place, and Taiwan’s military has been severely decapitated, they can slowly pull their troops to coastal areas over a few weeks, without much threat to the blockade, ready for crossing the strait and actually capturing cities in Taiwan.
Yes, but in the air raid/blockade scenario would you as a foreigner then not still be able to leave Taiwan (maybe only with a little suitcase, but that is not so important). What do you think?
Best case scenario they don’t bomb the airports and there are still flights out, but if I recall correctly, Taiwan uses its international airports for military activities too, so they’d probably be top on the list for air raids. For example, Taipei Songshan Airport is also Songshan Air Force Base. Also there’s this: Army drill simulates Chinese airborne assault on Taoyuan Airport.
Yes, good point. But the Ukraine or Saigon scenario would still be quite ok for my selfish self as I would just leave at the slightest escalation of tensions. So I - just like 99% of the Ukrainian oligarchs - would not have been in Ukraine when Russia attacked. That scenarios is not what I am worried about contrary to me getting stuck in Taiwan and not being able to flee. So really what is the likelihood of the latter?
Yes, but even then I thought that the Western countries would negotiate for a few big ships to be allowed to rescue Western expats on the promise not to take anybody else and not to deliver anything to Taiwan. But again, not sure how realistic this is which is what I am trying to explore with this post.
Ukraine you could walk across the boarder to Poland. Iaiwan, you would need an aeroplane but with a blockade first you may not be able go anywhere (maybe only to Mainland China then to your homeland)
Everyone is aware of this, but the point is that if China bombs a bunch of foreign nationals visiting and living in Taiwan without proper warning to leave, they might incur action from countries that otherwise might sit it out on the sidelines. At the very least they would heavily damage relations with those countries and if they attack Taiwan, they’ll need all the “friends” they can get.
Well not sure if it got that point, they care about friends are not. China is big enough that they may think that is less important than get Taiwan.
I think most here in Taiwan is aware what it is, and those that worry have left. I am here for family, so unless we all run away I will stay as family for me is more important.
if your ethic Chinese they might not care what passport you have, as some Canadian-Chinese they treat as Chinese and got the death penalty.
On the other hand, giving Taiwan advanced warning would allow it and its allies to prepare effectively. If they can actually carry out some kind of no-warning scenario, they may well do it. Of course, achieving that kind of surprise would be somewhere between difficult and impossible. I hope
Invading Taiwan means WW3 anyway. If they think they can get stage one done fast and surgically, I wouldn’t put it past them. Not the most likely scenario, but I wouldn’t totally discount it.
I think every country, including China, wants to avoid WW III. A global confrontation with gloves off would result in the CCP’s demise. They’re strong against Taiwan. They’re not strong against the combined might of the USA, the UK, NATO, Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, possibly India, etc. They’ll try to have their cake and eat it too, and avoid (as much as possible at least) pissing off uninvolved parties.
Not so sure they would fight for Taiwan, they did not directly for Ukraine. Result is many years war in Ukraine, a many years war in Taiwan would be the worst (good for USA but vey very bad for us here)
