Let’s see how I did on Oct 29 recommendations:
- GDXJ up 25%. GOAU up 33%, many juniors up 50%+. BCEKF up 135%. IAUX up 65%.
- RBLX down 28%, but I did say wait to buy under $30, and it hit $26 last week. Now back to $33.
- VWO up 15%
Not too shabby. Any new predictions?
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Thanks - I mostly follow gold and silver miners, and use two paid newsletters. When I try to dabble in other areas, like my 4 biotech stocks mentioned above, I usually get slaughtered. So I stick with what I know (I spent the last 5 years commuting to work listening to podcasts about mining stocks and financial stuff in general).
I personally don’t think it’s a good time to buy anything including miners. Stock market is rallying because it’s expecting the Fed to stop raising rates soon. Sure, that’ll trigger a rally, but 5% interest rates in the US isn’t a good situation at all for stocks. And those rates are wrecking the economy, real estate, and Treasury market. None of that is priced into the stock market yet.
As for gold and silver miners, they’ve been rallying for 4 months straight, it’s time for a pullback. If GDXJ (currently $40) pulls back to $35, it’s a buy. I don’t recommend buying the little stocks unless you spend a lot of time studying them AND use a paid expert. Here’s why:
You have to time the purchase well or you get slaughtered. You can’t buy and hold or average down with junior gold/silver miners.
These charts went straight down for 2 years before becoming good buys.
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I’ve noticed my GDX has gone green again and my miners are coming back steadily.
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Awesome, I was worried I was the only one! 
As someone said, better to be lucky than good.
I got lucky, quit my job in July, moved my 401k (which was all cash) to a brokerage IRA, just in time to buy mining stocks crazy cheap in Aug through Oct.
Much of the miners I bought in other accounts is still in the red.
They’ve been beaten down but there’s really no reason for it.
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So how did everyone do overall in 2022?
Overall probably lost 10-15%, mostly through exposure to bonds (15%-20%) and some tech (10%-15%), some crypto (2%). My employer is in tech and that left me over-exposed there. I was also in the process of building up on bonds after Covid, so inflation not being “transitory” was very unfortunate.
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Well you had a lot of negative fundmentals for gold miners in 2021 and 2022:
- cost of lumber, rubber and oil/diesel skyrocketed - making the cost of building and operating mines very expensive
- Fed was raising rates, driving up real rates which is probably the biggest driver of gold. Higher real rates are bad for gold
- bitcoin/crypto was stealing a lot of the interest in gold and junior gold miners
- stocks and bonds tanked in 2022, bringing in some margin calls which makes people sell gold and miners.
All four of these trends have reversed or slowed, making gold and gold miners attractive again.
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Not great. Its best to just keep on earning money and investing monthly isn’t it, investing is a long term game.
I mean imagine trying to invest in ‘natural gas’ as a commodity this year. Tesla stocks finally dived even though the electric vehicle market worldwide exploded. It’s so unpredictable . Keep diversified is also good.
Natural gas is called the widowmaker for a reason. I don’t touch it.
I’d be careful with the “keep buying” approach - that has depended on easy central bank money for a long time. Now that that’s gone (perhaps only temporarily), people shouldn’t expect stocks to keep going up.
This is a great time to build up cash.
What happens when you already built up a mountain of cash?.Better to keep buying monthly I think.
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Agree with this. Better to keep buying over time and not try to time the market.
Of course, I do not think one should buy individual stocks, but buy the market.
The past few days have been quite green for my portfolio. Did we pass rock bottom or is that yet another fake temporary upswing?
It might be the proverbial “soft landing” or the 5% interest rates have not been priced in yet, depending on who you believe. Could rain could shine?
Bear market rally. They can be pretty awesome.
Stock market investors are still in Buy All Dips mode, like it’s been the last 12 years. We won’t bottom til that mentality dies a horrible death.
Pro Tip: Change your language to Chinese and all your losses will appear green, too 
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Down about 5%. Just went positive in the last week.
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I reckon the world economy will bumble along, the worst is probably over if inflation is moderating.
Only thing is war …not much can do about that.
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Up like 35 %, I trade Canadian oil companies and a Italian Eni, got 300 % on natural gas long before summer and 100% short for a weekly trade around Christmas. Hold fairfax for whole year.
Currently 25 % in American Airlines and 25 % in Sainsbury, Wetherspoons together. Still hold 30 % in Fairfax. Barrick Gold 20 %. Last 2 I will hold during the year, Wetherspoon too probably. American airlines and Sainsbury have strong stop loss. Barrick gold will rebuy on the way down
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