I shared tons of winners the last couple years, but have said I’m not too sure currently (doesn’t stop me though, which is something I need to be better at. Most recent purchase was googl). I’ve chimed in with plenty of thoughts on others, as well as giving my thoughts on simple options that I think active investors should be in .
I’ve also shared losses (like coin - the worst again!). And I recently have some general thoughts on the portfolio thread, but that’s not active. 
Yeah but it would be good if folks explained why a given stock looked good or not, like how I laid it out with Uber above.
It’s a weird thing with stock markets, they seem to react to profitability as if it couldn’t be predicted in advance.
Such as Airbnb, that’s been obvious for a few quarters that they are becoming profitable.
I would skip TSMC. They have a crazy 20 years and probably next 20 years will be different. Just listen to Morris Chang give you vibe hard times are ahead. Don’t go against chairman thoughts.
Chinese burn a lot of money (like 200 billions) trying to get into foundry business, Chang believe similar are about to happen to Americans. You think everything will be covered only by American taxpayers? Salaries will have to increase in order to keep/attract talent, but this isn’t even a problem. There isn’t enough talent out side of Taiwan, and in Taiwan demographics will hit it too.
Think how long tscm needed to become competitive in early 90s. Multiple this by 3x times for their Japanese, American investments.
What about when industry challenges comes together with hard landing? Than stock will plumb 70 % from top easily. Wait is right strategy for TSM.
Focus more on core value small cap companies in tech, those who aren’t over leveraged
1 Like
There is still high demand for chips, which will continue in the future. No matter how much money others throw on this tech, it needs a lot of time to catch up. Just look at failed Intel and struggling Samsung foundries.
Even with lower demand because of volatile crypto, Nvidia reported good numbers due to huge investments in AI by everyone. All this brings business to TSMC.
TSMC is more risky because of possible China - Taiwan conflict.
In the end TSMC is the company that has the chops for manufacturing the high end stuff, AI being throw at everything surely is going to increase demand in top of automotive, IOT and Cloud. It’s not like there are many other contenders. Its risky cos of geopolitics so not all in but some partial investment, and if things kick off the stock markets will be dogshit anyway.
AI chip demand is forecast to have a 37% CAGR for the next 8 years. Probably more than that in near term.
Hopefully TSMC can manage capital investment carefully i.e. talking big while keeping the core here.
1 Like
We’ll be holding onto our TSMC for a while. The trend for more hasn’t abated one bit.
So was for oil and energy stocks return little between 2008 and 2020.
Why do you think TSMC can go on forever without similar struggles? TSM foundry in Washington experiences similar difficulties for last decades
Is just a forecast. Resistant inflation and higher (for longer) interest will slow down growth and can leave foundries being overinvested. When there is demand destruction chips prices will fall for for 50 % like it happened to natural gas in Europe, while foundries will be left with cost of investments
Any advice for someone just entering the Taiwan market. Any stocks that you guys think are undervalued or have a bright future?
Thanks!
Its normal in crypto. What is a far bigger drag are the interest rates.
1 Like
This is why I don’t invest in crypto. 
Yup , this is part of the ride.
Is a major stock market crash coming in 60 days?
Or is this just the typical fear-mongering?
I am heavy in cash so bring it on, baby! I want to put the money in at rock bottom.
Yes me too. I will invest a lot if it happens. It’s all about the rates. If a few companies implode all the better. Higher rates will create pressures on those with high debts, junk bonds. merrging markets. Simultaneously making USD stronger, causing rush into USD…and paying back in weakening foreign currencies more difficult.
Ony reversion to mean theory the stock market should undershoot at a certain point.
I haven’t had time to read much about this yet but apparently Circle has $3B at this bank, among many tech companies who use it
The fact that there is so much money on the sides with people that want to buy the dip means it wont crash entirely imo
My newsletter has had us in cash for months. Now slowly buying back in.
Recent recs, and I had them already or bought on the rec:
HFRO
NVG
IEI
IEF
ENB
EQT
1 Like
I think this is a bad time to buy in. The real second wave of declines (after 2022) hasn’t even started yet, imo.
I’m fine with parking my cash in interest-bearing stuff and waiting another several months.