My BITO is up 54% since I bought it at the end of last year, and I’m obscurely annoyed by that.
Generally banks are better than in 2008, however QT drains their deposits. Many have lost on fixed income portfolio, those who have long duration . Opportunity cost are there not locking in higher intereat rates.
Big banks are way better than regional banks
There are banks which will provide ok return to shareholders like Deutsche bank, Citi, JP Morgen, bank of America.
You can have healthy tilt with banks in your portfolio, but don’t expect to be best performing sector
Big banks have been (mostly) properly regulated since 2008, the regional banks were able to take on more risk and become big (see SVB in 2021). Badly managed regional banks will be bought by big banks, making them even bigger. The potential problem then is less competition.
I would expect some of the fintechs to fold, since they often have unexperienced management and partner with smaller banks.
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Revolut and N26 seem to be doing very well in Europe. Yes the banks in Europe have more stringent capital requirements also.
I see the big techs are still laying off staff.
They both reported losses > 100 mm for last year. They claim they can dig themselves out of that hole without needing additional investment (hard to get with interest rates so high) but I am not so sure.
Edit: Sorry, Revolut actually already turned profitable
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The Financial Supervisory Commission, Taiwan’s top financial watchdog, will soon oversee crypto currency payments and transactions. An initial framework for the new regulations is expected by June.
Is this good or bad?
I think might be bad if have to start paying tax on it …I mean being on their radar. They alread ‘regulated’ it a few times.
In the meantime HK seems to be making a play for next crypto hq , which suits me very well.
Boeing screwing the pooch on execution again. 
Trying to sell some $170 Jan puts at $11 to take advantage of this drop.
Sold EQT and NVG today. Kept KYN as it’s good for the long term, but my guy wants to avoid the drop as the market he says looks toppy .
He has a buy on TBT as rates creep back up.
Follow Buffet’s latest financial moves!
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How long have you been following the newsletter guy? Remind me again which one you use?
What makes KYN look good long term to you? Doesn’t look like they’ve ever grown.
If you just want to follow his moves, why wouldn’t you just buy brk and be done with it? Especially since by the time you find out Buffet’s moves, chances are he’s moved the market already.
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To believe any person is a stock expert is a bit foolish imo. Especially one that trades daily/weekly. If he were that good he’d have a few tens of $millions by now, not running a newsletter
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Three or four years. Brett Owens
From April 6:
KYN Hikes Dividend by 5%
Oil prices had plunged in recent months on recession fears. However, there’s still no recession. Oops!
Meanwhile, OPEC said enough “cheap” oil. On Sunday the cartel announced production cuts. Oil prices popped.
Which is funny, because Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund (KYN) is on sale at 14% off its net asset value (NAV). Since KYN’s NAV is comprised of publicly traded stocks, it’s particularly attractive.
KYN yields 9.6% and holds Contrarian Income Report favorites like ONEOK (OKE) and The Williams Companies (WMB). If you enjoyed our 167% and 71% total returns respectively on them*,* KYN gets you both today for just 86 cents on the dollar.
KYN should be trading closer to its net asset value. Heck, the fund traded at a premium as recently as 2018 and energy was in a bear market then. Now, it’s making a multi-year run higher. But when there is fear in the broader stock market, we can buy KYN for less than the value of the stocks it holds.
Plus, KYN recently raised its dividend by 5%!
Taiwanese military-related stocks.
No fuss, no muss.
Exactly backwards on my trades last week - bought some weekly puts on META and calls on SNAP last week.
Thems the rolls…
I asked GPT4 for lists of investments and the conditions in which they’re good/bad to buy.
| Investment/Attribute | Situation & Effect | Evidence/Correlation (1-10) |
|---|---|---|
| Cyclical Stocks | Economic Expansion: Stock prices tend to rise in response to increased consumer spending. Their performance is tied to the business cycle, and they may outperform during economic booms. | 7/10 |
| Growth Stocks | Innovation Boom: Rapid technological advancements fuel growth for companies in this sector. Investors may see higher returns as these companies capitalize on innovations and expand their market share. | 6/10 |
| Value Stocks | Market Downturn: Out-of-favor companies can provide value & potential long-term returns. These stocks may be attractively priced during downturns and may offer opportunities for patient investors. | 6/10 |
| High Dividend Stocks | Low-Interest Environment: Investors seek income-producing assets as fixed-income alternatives. High dividend stocks offer reliable income streams to investors, making them more attractive when interest rates are low. | 7/10 |
| Small-Cap Stocks | Economic Recovery: Smaller companies tend to benefit from increased demand for goods/services. As the economy rebounds, these stocks may outperform their large-cap counterparts due to their agility and growth potential. | 6/10 |
| Defensive Stocks | Market Volatility: These stocks provide stability due to consistent demand for their products. In times of uncertainty, these stocks tend to remain resilient, as they are less influenced by market fluctuations. | 8/10 |
| Leveraged ETFs | Market Momentum: These ETFs are designed to magnify gains/losses in very bullish/bearish environments. In periods of strong market trends, leveraged ETFs can produce outsized returns or increased losses for investors seeking exposure to specific sectors or assets. | 5/10 |
| Short Selling | Market Bubble: When overvalued assets’ prices are anticipated to fall significantly, short selling allows investors to profit from price declines. This strategy can be profitable during market downturns, but it also comes with substantial risks. | 7/10 |
| Low Volatility Stocks | Bear Market: Less price fluctuation provides relative stability compared to other options. In a declining market, low volatility stocks may outperform their higher-volatility counterparts, offering a more conservative investment alternative. | 6/10 |
| Investment/Attribute | Situation & Effect | Evidence/Correlation (1-10) |
|---|---|---|
| REITs | Economic Expansion: During periods of economic growth, REITs may benefit from increased property values and rental income. This can lead to higher dividends and overall returns for investors. | 7/10 |
| Energy | Fluctuating Oil Prices: Changes in oil prices can have a significant impact on energy sector stocks. Higher oil prices typically benefit energy producers, while lower prices may hurt their profitability. | 8/10 |
| Junk Bonds | Risk Appetite Increase: In a “risk-on” environment, investors may be more willing to invest in high-yield bonds. Junk bonds offer higher interest rates due to their lower credit rating, making them attractive in such situations. | 7/10 |
| Developing Countries | Rapid Economic Growth: Developing countries can offer attractive investment opportunities as they experience accelerated GDP growth. Investors may benefit from the higher returns and diversification of their portfolios. | 6/10 |
| Healthcare | Aging Population: As the average age of the population increases, the demand for healthcare services and products tends to rise. This demographic shift may lead to increased growth and profitability for healthcare companies. | 7/10 |
| Banks | Rising Interest Rates: When interest rates rise, banks usually benefit from wider net interest margins. This can lead to increased profitability for banks and potentially higher stock prices. | 8/10 |
| Investment/Attribute | Outcome | Situation & Effect | Evidence/Correlation (1-10) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | Economic Expansion: REITs may benefit from increased property values and rental income, leading to higher returns. | 7/10 | |
| REITs | Negative | Economic Downturn: Falling property values and reduced rental income may negatively impact REITs’ performance. | 6/10 |
| Positive | Higher Oil Prices: Energy producers typically benefit from increased profitability and stock prices. | 8/10 | |
| Energy | Negative | Lower Oil Prices: Reduced oil prices may hurt the profitability of energy producers, leading to lower stock prices. | 8/10 |
| Positive | Risk-On Environment: Higher yields and interest rates make junk bonds more attractive to investors seeking returns. | 7/10 | |
| Junk Bonds | Negative | Risk-Off Environment: Lower risk tolerance can lead to reduced demand for high-yield bonds, potentially driving prices down. | 6/10 |
| Positive | Rapid Economic Growth: Investors can benefit from higher returns and diversification in flourishing developing markets. | 6/10 | |
| Developing Countries | Negative | Economic Instability: Political and economic risks may negatively impact investments in developing countries. | 7/10 |
| Positive | Aging Population: Increased demand for healthcare services and products may boost growth and profitability. | 7/10 | |
| Healthcare | Negative | Regulatory Risks: Changing regulations and policies can create uncertainty and potential hurdles for healthcare companies. | 6/10 |
| Positive | Rising Interest Rates: Banks usually benefit from wider net interest margins, leading to increased profitability. | 8/10 | |
| Banks | Negative | Low-Interest Rates: Reduced net interest margins in low-interest environments can limit banks’ profitability. | 7/10 |
and then situation first, investment second:
| Situation & Effect | Outcome | Evidence/Correlation (1-10) | Investment/Attribute |
|---|---|---|---|
| High Interest Rates | Positive | 8/10 | Banks |
| Negative | 7/10 | High Dividend Stocks | |
| Recession | Positive | 6/10 | Value Stocks |
| Negative | 7/10 | Cyclical Stocks | |
| Inflation | Positive | 7/10 | Real Assets (e.g., Gold, Real Estate) |
| Negative | 6/10 | Fixed Income Investments (e.g., Bonds) | |
| Stagflation | Positive | 6/10 | Non-cyclical Stocks |
| Negative | 7/10 | Growth Stocks | |
| Bull Market | Positive | 8/10 | Cyclical Stocks |
| Negative | 5/10 | Defensive Stocks | |
| Bear Market | Positive | 6/10 | Low Volatility Stocks |
| Negative | 7/10 | Growth Stocks |
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