(Moved from other thread)
Listen, this is getting Rascallian in its silliness. We are talking past each other. I think I know why.*
The question was is Soros a great investor?
I suggested that his public persona does not match the reality. Investment requires knowing what to buy and how much to buy.** He relied on others to tell him what to buy.
Then there is the how much to buy (Risk management - vary the relative quantities to diversify your risks***.)
Then i suggested that even here there is a question - was his decision to buy lots a smart one or a lucky one? looking back, because it worked, we might all say it was smart… but that is the affect of hindsight. He took huge risks and backed JR’s or SD’s judegment. So was it a canny risk management process or a huge punt? Without doubt, it was the latter.
Think about the risk return profiles that these guys face. If the punt goes wrong, what happens? They go bankrupt. But they live to fight another day. If it goes right? They become billionaires and spend their money propagating their own world view.
Who made the smart investment decision and who made the gamblers’ punt?
I think the difference between us may largely come down to the use of the phrase “huge punt.” To investors, this means a large AND risky position. For example, putting a lot of money into a single stock, when you are measured by your performance against the whole market. That’s a punt. Interestingly enough, if you are being measured by your performance against the S&P500, putting a large amount of money in a deposit account would be considered a huge punt, too. (because you would look like an arse if the market goes up). Given this fact - that it is all about the relative nature of the investment as to whether it is a punt or not, it makes no sense to claim
For that is precisely the meaning of the word 'punt."
Let me add that if someone had a large amount of money in one place but it was peanuts compared to what they were doing with the rest of their portfolio, it would not be considered a huge punt.
**Not, as Fox misrepresents it “What and When?” trying to sidestep the whole issue.
***Even Fox agrees with this after seeming to quibble at the start.