Maybe 2 years ago, but his downfall has been swift. The ‘no’ vote on recall was 2.6% last I checked. That’s so ridiculously low that it makes me think his once sizeable support has shrunk to a small cult of diehards. And that’s not enough to win an election anywhere.
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When six inches becomes half an inch
He did urge his supporters not to vote.
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Do people not remember how well it went the last time seemingly progressive mechanisms (aka referenda) were exploited?
I think it’s misleading to say so. Kaohsiung residents voted at a 72% turnout last election, 2014 and 2010.
Assuming the same turnout because it’s a fairly normal turnout in Taiwan, Han likely would have received a little over 716k votes or 43% of the vote. I don’t think for a second that Han Fans and KMT old guard have simply dissolved into thin air but were trying to sabotage the election. The people that moved over were middle of the road types that wanted to give Han a try and he should have realised that as an anomaly, he should have worked as hard as possible to be a good choice for mayor. He alienated the 200k or so people who rolled the dice with him. But the KMT old guard hasn’t disappeared and that 97% is…fake in a way, and it means that the DPP will need to be at their best during the next election in (I’m guessing) September because the turnout trick doesn’t work for normal elections, so they will be voting.
Remember. Han got 600k votes in the 2020 Presidential Election for Kaohsiung. Turnout was 77%.
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Just a random guess that he was involved in some 黑金 or some scandal that will blow up once temporary mayor (from Executive Yuan) is assigned and if/when DPP win new election.
quite interesting to compare turnout % and final results from different districts and neighborhoods. the mostly indigenous mountain districts had less than 10% voter turnout yesterday, lowest was 4%.
if someone has any data about how specific neighborhoods(里) voted yesterday, i´d appreciate it. i could imagine that some neighborhoods, especially in zuoying district, had similar low turnout numbers considering the large number of military staff and veterans living there.
the results of the recall definitely shouldn´t give dpp voters a false sense of security. otherwise the next fish will be in office faster than the last one got the boot.
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I expect the inimitable Nathan Batto at Frozen Garlic will be all over this soon.
About how the 97% is meaningless—yes, we get it that this is obviously not a repeatable percentage is any future election (duh!). But it does show that the “sit it out, boycott it” move that the KMT has loved to use in the past (and with success) can be a terrible strategy now that the threshold has been lowered to 25% of eligible voters.
Guy
And: now that I mentioned him, Frozen Garlic is back!
Guy
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That was a political tactic. He knew he was going to lose and now his supporters can use that to explain the blowout.
I think it’s a pretty weak argument.
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As Frozen Garlic points out, it’s worse than that. By urging the blue side not to vote, Han effectively eliminated the secret ballot. So if you’re in a tightly knit Indigenous community, for example, just showing up (and being seen showing up) is a form of exposure.
The more I think about it, the more I’m glad this guy lost.
Guy
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it is a weak argument. we can debate about what’s a reasonable threshold all day long. in the end, everyone was invited to vote and one side decided not to participate. it´s your right but the sh*t i heard today from pro-kmt people was pathetic. “what would it have mattered if i voted”,“the voting was rigged from the start”…
if every election is answered with a recall, i get it, people will eventually get tired of it and i´m sure they will adjust the threshold quickly. but that´s all part of a democratic process.
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Part-time forumosan and active blogger laorencha weighs in on the results from Kaohsiung:
Guy
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Thanks for the legwork.
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It would also be interesting to know how many Taiwanese residing overseas voted last time. There was a lot of promises and support from Taishen in China and US. Obviously, due to COVID19, their travel is compromised.
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speaking from my immediate surroundings, i´m glad they couldn´t vote… “taiwanese democracy and morals are dead, a joke, going down the drains…”
enjoying democracy in a western country(not the us) yet taking the moral high ground for a place where you have not resided in decades… 
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He looks like a big brother!
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Maybe they had something ‘cooking’?
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He looks like my cousins, actually. 