Or rather CCP’s power is tied to prosperity. Without which CCP would fold in seconds.
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Yes same same.
I still think China will try to accomplish it without firing a single shot.
That said, if they try military invasion, let’s say taking Kinmen/Matsu first, all hell will break loose in Taiwan eventually. You thought the Lunar New Year traffic and crowds are bad, an invasion rush would be worse as everyone flees to the South. The airports would be a zoo while everyone else would be eating instant noodles and breathing in sewer gas in B1. I don’t even want to think about the supermarkets.
Taiwan would probably fold almost immediately though as they don’t want to have images broadcast around the world of apartments and schools hit by missiles and scores of people wounded and dead in Xinyi. I don’t think most people here would take up arms and fight either.
I wonder what would happen to the Taiex and housing market. I guess it would crash. Occupied territories aren’t actually productive, which is just one reason why an invasion would be a huge mistake.
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I don’t think so. If your choice is give up and lose while giving the opposition free access or fight and have a chance to win, they will choose to win.
If this is the case, why even bother and instead just surrender now?
i think the main reason for this feeling (among my foreign friends at least) is seeing how un-militaristic the TW society is, and how reluctant they are to serve in the military.
If you compare TW to other countries facing large enemies (Korea, Singapore, Israel) you see that in those countries military service is not only longer and more professional, but that people take pride in it.
in Taiwan, it is seen as a waste of time, and many try to find a way out of it…
this creates a defeatist image of Taiwan among outsiders, hence the belief TW will not stand a chance.
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^^This plus the general mei ban fa attitude that most people have. Start asking around to see if Taiwanese would fight, but I’m sure the answer would be that it’s 太危險了.
Do people actually have to be in your face militaristic? Why can’t people just live their lives?
Taiwan’s not going to fold. They have quite a few active volunteers.
no need to take it extremes, the point I’m making is that the Taiwanese people I’ve met here dont perceive the military as a force that is worth much.
in my years here never once have I met a TW man proud of his service, the range of opinions I heard of the military range from :“corrupt kmt” , “mediocre people that cant get a better job” , “waste of time”.
though this can be said of any army, never have I encountered anyone saying their service was meaningful or that the TW army is worth it.
hence the lack of trust.
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Everyone thought that about the Ukrainians as well
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not 100% true.
after the Crimea annexation Ukraine invested heavily in its armed forces. before that it was more like TW.
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If the world responds to China the same way it has responded to Russia then Taiwan is a lot safer right now.
In the long run CIS should be looked at. If it collapses then you know the US and UK and others have refused to participate in that payment system. Most likely to continue to cut off Russia but also to prevent China from having options if they do try something.
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and so is Taiwan investing. It’s been 6 years.
Also Taiwan is not a corrupt oligarchy state.
and a developed country
and has more advanced weapons.
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not 100% correct, the CCP power is from controlling government, security forces and army.
there are many authoritarian regimes in power for decades without giving their people any prosperity.
if China doesn’t prosper, the ccp will just tell the people to xin ku for the greater good of the country.
the kmt government criminally defunded the armed forces, despite Tsais efforts the training is too short and there is no meaningful reserve army.
plus, even with tsais extra budget, I feel there is no growing pride or trust in the armed forces, and this is reflected with people being defeatist in the face of china.
if we take Israel or Korea as an example, the surrounding countries must take the army into account before they start hostility. in Taiwan effing generals go and collude with the ccp.
I feel that neither china nor Taiwan military brass see the roc army as a force to be reckoned with.
I hope I’m wrong.
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Wary in public while buying up cheap Russian assets in private. I bet. Russians between a wok and a hard place right now.
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after being identified with North Korea and most money grabbing despots in the 3rd world, I think one more country wont matter to them.
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People are saying if it goes well Russia will end up becoming a vassal state of China…
In Soviet Russia, country betrays YOU!!!
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That’s probably what China was partly planning for the virus. Aside from using it as revenge for Trade War, Blacklistings, and dunking on Hong Kong, China probably wanted to use the virus as a way to overwhelm Taiwan so that China could come in with PLA as “Medical Assistance” – hence their overly public showing off building hospitals, etc, and Russia’s military help which landed in Italy. There was probably going to be a mirroring of that in Taiwan but luckily intelligence was ahead of the ball early on. If true, it means China missed their window long ago. And now that the sea around Taiwan is loaded with the world’s Navies , its not only past their window of opportunity, but will be much too costly for china to attempt.
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I like to ask the very few sons of our friends who actually did their military “training/service” if they ever saw a gun during their 4 month stint…seems fewer and fewer even see a gun much less trained how to use one. The few who did their service mostly did administrative work. I do not know if that is the trend or not because most of our friends’ kids did not serve…by getting medical exemptions.
What do you mean by “active volunteers”?