Friends,
I need some advice. I turn to you, my trusted fellow Forumosans, for your wisdom.
The Situation:
(i) As some of you may know, I am something of an amateur astronomer. Not my full time job, but I know enough to know that each point that follows is incontrovertibly true.
(ii) Last night, while observing from the rooftop of my apartment (I have an amazing telescope hooked up to my laptop so that I record all of the images I take), I got a unique glimpse at the heavens.
(iii) The exact position of all of the planets and stars, and the incredibly narrow angle through which I peered were such that nobody else on Earth could have seen what I saw. It was a trillion to one --that things would line up that way-- and the window was only open for a matter of minutes, as that tiny window in the sky moved across the lens of my telescope.
(iv) What I saw was a comet. It is a comet that is heading toward the Earth, and will impact exactly 5 years from today.
(v) On my laptop I now have indisputable proof that this all this is true. It is so indisputable, that even though no other scientists would be able to independently verify it, if I showed them my evidence, the scientific community would instantly reach almost universal consensus that what I am describing is true.
(vi) This impact of the comet will destroy all life on the surface of the Earth. It is possible that some living things might survive in underground bunkers deep in the Earth, but the odds of even this are small.
(vii) Through another trillion to one coincidence, the angle that the comet is taking, and the positions of all the other objects in the solar system for the next five years, mean that there is a 0% chance that anyone else (not even satellites beyond Earth orbit) will see this comet coming until it is right upon us. (I know you might think that we’d have at least some warning, since once the comet rounded the nearest object to us it would be visible, but no. It won’t be. See point (i) about me knowing that this is true.)
(viii) There is no chance that any technology we have now or could conceivably have in the next 5 years can stop this comet Armageddon/Deep Impact style. It’s going to hit us.
(ix) All of you reading this are now hereby sworn to secrecy. In any event, since you don’t have the indisputable proof that I have on my laptop, even if you told someone they wouldn’t believe you. They would probably just say that you were recounting some lame hypothetical that some random guy posted to a message board for the sake of discussion.
The Questions:
(1) Do I announce my discovery to the world? What would this do? Would it allow people to make the most of their remaining 5 years. Would love, and compassion, and a spirit of common humanity flourish? Would we all understand what is important and live the best we could for those years? Or would telling lead to mass depression, hysteria, mass crime, religious suicide cults, warfare, and anarchy?
(2) If I don’t announce it to the world, should I announce it to some smaller subset of people? Should I try, even if there only a small chance, to see that some small number of people begin building these deep bunkers, and have some chance for humanity to survive?
(3) Now that you all know, what effect will it have on how you live your remaining 5 years? Will you forget trying to quit smoking? Will you spend your time traveling the world and seeing all you can before you go? Will you move back to be near your families?
(4) For those of you with spouses and kids, will you tell them? Will it just cause their next 5 years to be filled with dread and depression? For those with kids, will you educate them any differently? Do they still go to school and spend hours learning things they don’t enjoy?
(5) Would it make a difference to any of your answers if the comet were going to impact not in 5 years but in 5 months? How about if it were going to impact tomorrow?
Please number your answers so I know which answer goes with which question (I will be writing them all down to help me with my decision). Thank you for your help.
your friend,
Thomas Hobbes
