How to convince friends their biz idea sucks?

i have a very stubborn friend that reckons his biz idea - lets call it X - is a sure thing

he has little biz sense but is super keen

he has done no research on investment amount, demographics, market size, pricing etc etc. he simply thinks its a good idea

biz x - service industry biz in taipei for which he has no contacts nor experience in.

he needs a wad of cash to get it anywhere near starting. he has rented space (lots of $) , has a massive reno required, no investors, no timelines etc etc

i have pointed him toward biz planning resources, tried to sit down with him and a basic spreasheet to show him montlhy incomings and outgoiongs to gain an understanding of his minimum montlhy turnover to stay afloat - ie pricing, no of clients/customers etc etc… but he wont listen.

what can i do? he is a great friend and i want him to be successful (which he alreadt is in another industry) but i worry about his road ahead.

For some, mistakes are the only way to learn. If he’s already rented a place of business and is undertaking renovations all without having set up a business plan or doing any research on his potential customer base, it sounds like that’s the road he’s already taken. Then again, maybe he’s one of those wunderkind’s that hits the ball out of the park everytime and doesn’t need any of that…probably not…

I’d suggest you be there to help pick up the pieces if it falls apart and don’t push your friend too hard if they are convinced their project is a valid money maker.

Sometimes in business you can be suprised how you start out with one project and end up with something different and unexpected.

The hardest part is getting started. I hope it does work out for them.

thx guys… obviously i care as well.

for confidentiality reasons i cant disclose full details of his ‘idea’ but suffice to say there are a bundle of warning signs.

he hasnt started reno. lets just say its 10s of millions. he has no money nor investors for this reno, no distro, no nothing, just a rental payment on space.

i have experience in planning, biz dev’t, VC etc etc… but he just refuses to listen. :frowning: i am not saying i am any expert by any stretch, but for me and others i know, prior to starting a biz or plan, brainstorm, get advice from mentors etc. this just isnt happenign and if it does he poos poos it and just doensnt listen.

[quote=“Chris H”]thx guys… obviously i care as well.

for confidentiality reasons i can’t disclose full details of his ‘idea’ but suffice to say there are a bundle of warning signs.

he hasnt started reno. lets just say its 10s of millions. he has no money nor investors for this reno, no distro, no nothing, just a rental payment on space.

I have experience in planning, biz dev’t, VC etc etc… but he just refuses to listen. :frowning: I am not saying I am any expert by any stretch, but for me and others I know, prior to starting a biz or plan, brainstorm, get advice from mentors etc. this just isnt happenign and if it does he poos poos it and just doensnt listen.[/quote]

After he fails and needs a job, hire him to do YOUR great idea. He sounds motivated but a bit blinded.

Seriously, I wish him luck, but when dealing in 10s of millions of NT, there should be little room for guesswork. JMHO

No listening is really bad.

Would he listen to his customers?

ha! theres the frustrating thing… we HAD a great idea we were going to do. then one day he tells me he is doing something else… as i said i am not saying i have a better idea, but the ideas i have had in the past - some planned to the nth degree and some not so - but all have had some semblence of planning, seekign advice, having money at least almost in place…

i dont want him to fail. if he would only listen to others advice then he might make it or a smaller scale version of it to begin with.

why is listening bad? this guy is surrounded by people offering help and advice, he doesnt listen.

I hope you resist any temptation to invest or go guarantor on loans, this could be a disaster. I hope your friend is not pressing friendship too far.

no real pressure… but he is pissed off i am not interested. i have offered support in order to ascertain the projects viability but he is just all guns blazing. a little irrationally too sometimes.

as i said he is a great friend, and i just want him to do well…

Not listening is really bad.

oh ok

you wrote earlier “no listening is really bad”… i thought you meant “no, listenig is really bad” as opposed to omitting the ‘t’[/b]

I’m more of the “Oh! That’s a great idea!” kind of type. Then I point out the pluses and minuses and concur that I really have no idea.

I figure that the restaurant/bar deal is not a big money-making thing. If you’re in the black then you’re fine. Money coming in all the time if you’re successul, but it’s always money coming in, money going out.

I have three or four things to say about this guy:

  1. Of course, one of the problems in Taiwan is that people opening business most often don’t make adequate provisions for poor cash flow in the first 3-6 monthsj of their business plan. They often run out of cash after that period, and go out of business, even when they have a great product.

  2. Having said that, planning things can in some cases kill enthusiasm. We westerners tend to overplan for things to the point that the idea just dies from the weight of planning. A little spontaneity can really help get a business going. So I wouldn’t completely knock him without knowing such sketchy details as you have provided. Perhaps he’s prepared to roll with the punches, and see how things go.

  3. Perhaps he isn’t worried about making a mistake or mistakes. Often, the fear of mistakes prevents entrepreneurial activity, and the planning covers the fear by claiming it is impossible. The best entrepreneurs plan, do, make mistakes and learn from the whole process, even if they decide their business didn’t work the first time.

  4. So in some ways, I admire entrepreneurs who keep trying because making mistakes is a sign that one is willing to learn.

Kenneth