Likelihood of China invading has decreased so much since Russia invaded Ukraine. China is 100 times more vulnerable to sanctions than Russia is.
If China invaded Taiwan, best case scenario for China is they take Taiwan successfully and their economy is destroyed by sanctions. Worst case scenario is they don’t take Taiwan successfully, their economy is destroyed and they likely start WW3, which could end in communist party losing their grip on China.
China will invade Taiwan when they have nothing left to lose, and the communist party are falling out of favor in the mainland. Dictators love to start wars when they are losing power.
Right now China has everything to lose. They are quickly becoming the most powerful economy in the world.
Not to say it will always be like this. China’s economy was set up to fail, and in the next twenty years the tables will turn due to aging population, housing crisis and water crisis.
Here’s where China has shot itself in the foot by not playing fair with the markets. The Chinese markets were a tempting lure a few decades ago, but now we have seen the forced IP transfers in addition to blatant theft, the favouring of state owned enterprises despite WTO commitments, etc. The Chinese really only buy from abroad those things they can’t make themselves: luxury goods, commodities (food, fuel, raw materials), advanced tech. Just taking away access to German engines will be a giant blow to China’s manufacturing and military. Take away their luxuries and the elite will be unhappy. Take away their food security and the masses will be riled. China sells more to the world than it buys. The Chinese tried to hurt Australia with sanctions, and look how well that worked out for them! Or the Taiwanese pineapples…
I was just talking with my parents about this this morning. I shrug my shoulders. China wants Taiwan to reunify with them, not wipe the island off the face of the earth. China will want the infrastructure in place and “citizens” to recognize the existence of. Also, I go back to China has been “about to attack” for how long now? Considering how well Russia’s attempt to “reunify” Ukraine by force has gone, I’d assume China would be smart enough to try a different tactic. Right now, that tactic is still banning Winnie the Pooh and calling Americans racist for pointing out that the coronavirus started in Wuhan.
Well, to be fair, Russia said similar things about Ukraine before the invasion. They thought they were de-nazifying it and would be welcomed with open arms! Now that they haven’t, we see another side. I could totally see China taking a “we had to burn down the village in order to save it” approach to Taiwan if their occupation isn’t welcome here (and it wouldn’t be).
My best guess for the case you want to leave Taiwan is:
Try to get out by plane pre-invasion. There will be super strong clues before any actual landing, even stronger than in Ukraine
Try to go to a place where taiwanese don’t need a visa (EU). Then try to stay there, hopefully they will allow overstaying for people whose home country is being attacked. Only a problem if you get out “too early” and can’t stay long enough.
As precaution, make sure the passports are valid long enough and also have different credit cards and a few thousand USD at home for tickets (in case TWD was somehow brought down by China)
The issue was more about how to get spouses and possibly in-laws out. Yeah, I don’t need a visa to suddenly start living in Canada. However, my wife - let alone my in-laws - can’t suddenly decide to move to Canada and start working there.
But in the event that something does happen, I assume policies in Canada would change in a hurry to make allowances for residence of non-Canadian spouses of Canadian citizens.