From some people who actually know what they’re talking about
Taiwan has already maxed out on that.
Taiwan has maxed out making the country welcoming? Colour me surprised!
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Former Australian PM Kevin Rudd saying that China is underestimating the US’ will to defend Taiwan.
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US has no will to defend Taiwan. It has no will to stand up to China. All it can do is talk talk n talk.
I reckon keeping cards close to the chest allows the opponent to misstep and miscalculate your intentions.
But Taiwan is too valuable to lose. China’s locked in with no access to the ocean.
Is it possible? by 2050 seems more reasonable to me. Can’t trust anything the Chinese say
In 2050 Xi will be dead anyway and the CCP.may have crumbled. 29 years is a long time.
How many times have they said this? It was 2020 last time. And this isn’t a bad time to invade considering the US is busy.
For the record, I highly doubt that Taiwan would “provoke” an attack on China. That’s about as likely as Canada doing so to the U.S. It’s also an accurate relative comparison in many ways.
America has The Taiwan Relations Act, which would almost certainly ensure America comes to Taiwans defense. The decision which would come from Congress.
It appears the position of the world on the importance of Taiwan and the region extends well beyond obligations by America. America would most certainly take the lead, but there are other nations who would side with the U.S and Taiwan under the event of an attack from Mainland China.
We are seeing this currently with the movement of Western military into the South China Sea. If that isn’t a sign about the Wests commitment to Taiwan, I don’t know what is.
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If you’re referring to the OP here, I think “if Taiwan provoked the invasion with formal TI” means a declaration of Taiwanese independence (which may indeed provoke an attack from China). Otherwise, 100% agree with you.
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29 years is shorter than the last 70 and their are rapidly increasing military capability. I think they are a lot of bluster and I highly doubt they will invade Taiwan but they have never ruled it out.
As far as the CCP crumbling, could be 2022, could be 2150. That is the sad part.
True it is a lot shorter in termd of technological evolution these days too. Everything happens faster.
The existence of Taiwan is a provocation to according to China. Taiwan can’t do anything that doesn’t provoke them.
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Kind of like the school yard bully will not do anything to you unless you provoke him which could include looking at him, wearing the wrong color shoes and being friends with others
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What about China flying planes over Taiwan, say Taipei 101? Currently they’re sticking to provoking Taiwan in the seas. But I don’t see what’s gonna stop them from flying overhead here. I doubt Taiwan has the balls to shoot down a Chinese plane. Essentially trying to evince some reaction from Taiwan other than news articles.
China can then claim that no boundary exists.
I think that would be a direct invasion of the airspace and result in their planes going down in flames.
A country’s airspace and ADIZ are separate things.
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If you’re referring to the OP here, I think “if Taiwan provoked the invasion with formal TI” means a declaration of Taiwanese independence (which may indeed provoke an attack from China). Otherwise, 100% agree with you.
I forgot to quote your post (new posting here), so I add it above.
Point taken.
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I don’t think Taiwan would shoot down a lone plane, a fleet of them maybe.
China would be stupid to fly a plane over if they have no intention of invasion as sanctions would kick in as well as USA military assets in the region would go on full alert. I feel it would be all downside for China with none of the upside. They wouldn’t get Taiwan back and instead would bring sanctions.
Right now they fly in the ADIZ to send the message that we will fly where we want because we can.
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So sanctions don’t kick in for multiple accusations of genocide, breaching treaties, proven IP thefts over years etc. but they will for a flyby? Yeah I don’t think so. Tokenism at best 
And who’s gonna enforce what? The biggest damage apart from war that the US could do is cutoff China from global payment systems like Swift or have the world boycott China. But that’s not gonna happen. Who’s gonna cooperate with US sanctions? Africa, EU and Asia won’t give a hoot as long as they can trade with China.
The west cannot come together to collectively ban 1 Chinese company. Sanctions are way way way off. See Iran - what’s the point of sanctions? They continue doing all their trade with China and other countries.
In the next few years, China will definitely fly right over Taipei without any repercussions whatsoever, IMHO. The West has shown, with HK, that neither do they care nor can they do anything about it.
Taiwan of course can’t do anything. Maybe they can use their well trained youngsters who did their “military” service in tech companies to write warning software . People thinking that there’s anything currently to deter Chinese aggression are overestimating the political will of other countries.
This is what US commanders are saying themselves:
“The military balance in the Indo-Pacific is becoming more unfavorable for the United States and our allies,” Davidson said. “With this imbalance, we are accumulating risk that may embolden China to unilaterally change the status quo before our forces may be able to deliver an effective response.”
China has laser focused efforts on becoming powerful, spreading influence. You may not like it but show me one single thing that has been done which has deterred them, since this century.
The west is still living in its days of glory and fighting over whether marijuana should be legalized, rather than build skills and capabilities for this century.