No draft = No more additional man-power = No 3rd front = No defend Taiwan, while War on Terror is still on going.
[quote=“skeptic yank”] The US ain’t going to war with China. simple as that. China owns America’s debt.[/quote] :loco: :loco: :loco:
Thats a lot of useless paper 
for the Chinese to be holding if they are going to be fighting the USA.
USA & it’s allies bans imports from China and block shipping lanes into Caina and refuses to pay debts… China crumbles…
China isnt going to war with the USA
Not to mention the USD will be worthless on the open market once professional traders see they can have little faith in the government backing it own debt or currency.
That’s one way to destroy the USA economy… 
Nor does USA want to start a war with PRC at this point.
Somehow USA needs to reign in the TI factions on Taiwan…now that’s a funny. 
[quote=“ac_dropout”]Not to mention the USD will be worthless on the open market once professional traders see they can have little faith in the government backing it own debt or currency.
That’s one way to destroy the USA economy…
Nor does USA want to start a war with PRC at this point.
Somehow USA needs to reign in the TI factions on Taiwan…now that’s a funny. [/quote]
AC,
While it is true the US economy is in flux, the exchange rate for the dollar is still better than most foreign currencies.
xe.com/ - 114 Yen, 8 RMB, 0.83 Euro are what the US dollar can buy, so we’re still in good shape. the Euro may look strong but their economies are all messed up.
The US doesn’t want a war, but you can go tell the hawks in DC and the commies in the PRC to get together and have a gay orgy. That’s a great way to prevent war.
As far as I am concerned, the United States owns Chen Shuibian. It also does not surprise me that the KMT are also CIA assets seeing as Chiang Kai Sh!t took orders from McArthur as Hartzell points out. Either way the US controls Taiwan and this is why Taiwan is both not independent and free from China :bravo:
BlueGreen,
To simplify economics of currency trading…
The USA greenback’s value is determined on the open market based on the amount of “faith” people have in US government on backing their currency. This confidence is based on vodoo for the most part.
But if the USA decides to not honor it loans from one particular country. It will cause a massive sell off of the USD by currency traders because what other country will the USA decide not to payback due to idealogical difference.
Not to mention the USD is being used as peg by most other countries, besides PRC, the chain of events would cause a massive currency meltdown that makes the asian crisis of 1997 seem minute in comparison.
[quote=“jdsmith”]
Hong Kong is closer, and really, more important.[/quote]
Knocking out HK means I’d have to do my next visa run in Macau (again)! Fuck that idea, JD. 
You don’t understand the rules of war. The US currency will always be a prime currency. The US can afford to carry a lot of debt. It only took Clinton 8 years to haul the US into surplus.
China relies on exports so much that if it’s orders dried up so would it’s economy. China would be much harder hit if it went to war with the USA.
You seem to assume that the USA is going to start a war with China. Not likely to be the case is it…
The question that began this topic is a bit vague. It doesn’t give a scenario that shows just what level we’re talking about. Is this a scenario where China tries for a all-out invasion? Is this total warfare? Or something else?
[quote]What USA armed forces are you referring to? You make it sound as if the military is not stretched to the max in the USA. Who is going to foot the gas bill? Taiwan…it doesn’t even want to pony up the money for arms.
If war started now. I wouldn’t expect much from the USA. [/quote]
So you’re saying that if Taiwan was attacked, the US would send Taiwan a bill for services rendered?
What’s you’re decribing is total annihilation. China at the very least would face international isolation if they committed such an offensive, unprovoked attack upon Taiwan.
And the U.S. is still very capable of protecting the sea and air around Taiwan.
How about South Korea, Japan, and any other countries that the U.S. has signed defensive treaties with? The diplomatic community knows that if the US didn’t back up Taiwan in case of an attack it would lose all credibility with the countries it has agreements with.
Also, I think that those two alone would make a very strong coalition for that region. And the way that China’s been bullying it’s neighbors, it’s easy to see how they might join up to make themselves more secure.
And the US would invade China for what purpose? What would be a benefit of invading China that would justify the cost?
[quote]Quote:
If PRC was such an easy military target, USA would have invaded decades ago, or created its own excuse to invade long ago.
And the US would invade China for what purpose? What would be a benefit of invading China that would justify the cost?[/quote]
Also, couldn
These assumptions are what have led many to conclude that it will be decades before the PRC could take Taiwan. I think such assumptions are too optimistic. The PRC can do plenty of things to cut down on the number of troops they’d have to land amphibiously. They could start by landing troops with commercial aircraft. The first wave could be on scheduled flights from Macau or Hong Kong. A 747 loaded with special forces goons could take over CKS quickly enough so that PLAAF transports and commandeered civilian aircraft could be landing in large numbers within half an hour. If ROC air fields get pounded hard enough by the ballistic missiles and special forces manage to sabotage parts of Taiwan’s SAM systems, the mainlanders could manage to put quite a lot of boots on Taiwanese airports before the ROC military knew what had hit them. Anything that came buy boat would just be for resupply and linking up with the guys who created pandamonium at the airports. This is of course all sloppy conjecture, but it is folly to assume that the mainlanders could only come by Normandy style invasion.
This could be true, but your statement follows the assumption that the USN and USAF would be fighting the mainlanders before they could get really dug in. It is quite likely that the cavalry wouldn’t arrive until substantial numbers PLA soldiers are settled in, have broken the ROC infantry’s back and are being supported by PLAAF planes flying from Taiwanese airstrips. SU-27s would not be a walkover for USN jets, especially if flown from Taiwan airstrips. USAF jets would be tanking into theater and at first would not be able to come in large numbers.
Which pilots? There is plenty telling us that PLAAF pilots flying the newer jets are getting quite good training. They are also getting better and better support systems. They’ve still got a way to go, but if they were fighting an airforce that had just had it’s teeth knocked in by ballistic missiles, the mainlanders could do quite a lot. They could quite realistically neutralize the ROCAF before the USN or USAF could show up.
This is of course something that all sides would consider when confronted with a war or the possibility of war. However, the same was more or less true in many past wars. Plenty of great power countries have gone to war against other great powers with whom they had close economic ties. Possible economic impact is not always enough to prevent war. Countries often go to war for reasons they believe are rational but in hindsight are actually hideously irrational.
Actually, what you describe above doesn’t seem to be in the ROCAF’s war plans. They only have a token inventory of air-to-ground weapons. They’ll be better off keeping back whatever jets they can fly to fight the mainlanders off and using cruise missiles to harass the mainlanders until the US could arrive with some real firepower. There is no way that the ROCAF could even get within range of the Three Gorges Dam. Nothing they have could get that far without tanking, and even if they could tank, they’d be lucky to make it 50 miles inland much less all the way to Yichang. It would take the US at least a week or two to soften up mainland air defenses to the point where they could go for targets like that dam, and even then, I doubt the US would do it. That would be almost the same as using nukes, or at least that’s how it would appear to mainland leaders. If I were Hu Jintao and I learned that the US had just washed away a couple of million people and billions of dollars in infrastructure by bombing the 3G Dam, I’d consider responding with nukes.
As to the OP’s original question, I think it’s a bit too simple. Being a bit of a gear geek myself, I’ve often wondered and asked the same thing. I now think it’s the wrong question. At present, I don’t doubt that the US has the capability to beat the mainlanders back if the Taiwanese can hold out for a few days (yes, big if). So what, though? Taiwan will always be right off of China’s coast. The only way to make sure Beijing doesn’t try it again is to bruise them deep. I don’t think that is possible. I think the mainlanders are probably ready to take some abuse from the US and still not use nukes, but if we try to castrate them so they won’t be able to threaten Taiwan again, the likelihood of them using nukes will be too high for us to stomach. I think there are a few possible results for a Taiwan conflict:
a.) Taiwan takes a beating, but the US pushes the mainlanders back and there is at least an unofficial cease fire. The US doesn’t go for the brass ring because they rightfully fear a nuclear response. The PLA is bruised but not beaten. Things get unstable on the mainland for a time and some sort of trade embargo is thrown together. It falls apart in a couple of years amidst stupid calls for engagement. The mainlanders keep rebuilding and building until they’re ready to go at it again. US soldiers die for no reason because even after nearly getting roasted, the Taiwanese still aren’t willing to serve in a professional military and sleep with rifles under their beds like the Israelis. Ten or twenty years later, the mainlanders come back and win.
b.) Same as “a,” but some Taiwanese man up and decide that they’re actually willing to die to protect their homes. Most countries still won’t give a shit, though, so just add 5 more years to the time when the mainlanders will come back.
c.) Taiwan takes a beating, but the US pushes the mainlanders back and decides to teach them a lesson they won’t soon forget. However, the US cuts too deep and San Francisco is turned into a parking lot. The world economy goes down the drain after the US makes China’s population half of India’s. Radiation-sick Taiwanese piss on CKS’s grave for not declaring independence in the early 70s.
d.) Taiwan takes a beating, but the US pushes the mainlanders back. Maybe the US decides to teach them a lesson, or maybe they don’t. Regardless, masses go nuts on the mainland because they got their asses handed to them on a platter and they still didn’t get Taiwan. The whole country descends into chaos. What happens next is anybody’s guess.I actually think this is the least likely result of a war. I also think that US leaders think this result is almost as scary as c.
The point of supporting the Taiwanese is to prevent war, not to win it when it breaks out. No matter what anybody intends at the beginning of a Taiwan war, there will be no winners, only losers who lose a bit less than the other participants. That’s the way it seems to me if things continue along present trends. The only countries that will really give a damn if the mainlanders land on Taiwan will be the US and Japan. No other countries are going to care unless they see on CNN thousands of Taiwanese fighting to the death or damn near it to push the mainlanders out. Do you really think the Taiwanese are going to do that? Do you think they’re going to set IEDs on road sides once their regular forces are broken? Do you think they’re going to use car bombs to attack collaborators like the Iraqis do? I don’t think they will. I think most Taiwanese are going to hide in their homes and not come out until the PRC flag is flying over Taiwanese soil or until they find out that the US was successful in pushing the mainlanders back. Even if the US can beat the mainlanders, should they? Why should the likes of AC_dropout, who would rather live on his knees than die on his feet, be protected by US blood? If the majority of Taiwanese don’t show signs of getting their shit together and being willing to stand up and fight, then I say leave them on their knees to take it any way the mainlanders want to give it to them. The ones with real balls should be welcome to immigrate to the US.
Well according to some of my co-workers its America keeping Taiwan from re-uniting with the mainland. We need to get out of the way so they can embrace and live happily ever after. If there was a way I would like to give the minority of Taiwanese who think this their wish
Because silly neo-con Americans are easy to manipulate when it come to spreading “democracy” and “freedom.”
Anyways I have always been consistant in advocating a position that would prevent USA, ROC, and PRC being drawn into a war over the Strait Issues.
There is only 1 political idealogy that can bring the 3 into a war, and it goes by the name of Taiwan Independence.
Ending Taiwan Independence ensures a better chance that people can live in a more secure environment (whether on their knees, or on their backs, or in a house with a mouse.) 
And like Galileo I will always choose to live for a cause rather than die for one. Martyrdom is too fickle, there’s a good chance people will just bad-mouth you when you’re dead. 
Negative. There is only one political ideology that can bring the three into a war, and it goes by the name of Chinese expansionism. Put the blame where it belongs. :fume:
What Chinese Expansionism? China’s territorial control has been shrinking since the CPC took over the mainland. Just compare ROC maps with PRC maps.
There is no evidence of PRC taking over ROC, nor ROC taking over PRC.
Claims of Chinese expansionism is like that of Taiwan Independence, fanciful declarations with no proof or evidence.
Whether it be Republic of China on Taiwan or People’s Republic of China on Taiwan. In the end it is still China on Taiwan. The 1 Country 2 System is already a reality on Taiwan in that sense.
Hell AC,
Theres a good chance people will just badmouth you when you are alive.
I think the US would probably win for the simple fact that the war would be fought on water.
On land, the US are a pile of pants. On the water the sheer size of a carrier fleet will thrawt any attepts of invasion regardless of skill factors.
Japan holds a grudge against China and there is always the slight possibilty that they would chip in.
China might just fire a load of missiles at Taiwan and call it quits, but I think they realise that it will not help their international relations.
Don’t forget AC, the US has always had total control of the Pacific in its sights and a scuffle with China is all it needs to show off a bit of dominance. Of course the US will fight China, not for Taiwan, but for itself.
Once conflict breaks out, the PRC government is totally committed. It can’t back out without sacrificing its claim to the mantle of Chinese nationalism. The US on the other hand has little real interest in supporting Taiwan, other than supporting the principle of democracy.
If the US even responds to an invasion, it would be short-lived and extremely body-count averse. The PRC has millions of bodies lined up to go fight, while the US is straining its resources to get soldiers to Iraq. You do the math.
That’ll be the day, when Beijing realizes that some actions just don’t help their international relations.
The PRC may have the people. I hope they are good swimmers because without boats, you can’t take an Island no matter how good your mathematics is…
Yes based on their international swim team, the PRC has some of the world best swimmers, divers, and sprinters.
The chances of anybody helping Taiwan, if TI instigates a war with PRC, is slim to none.