plasma, why does the world have to sever links with china just to recognise taiwan? i agree they would be forced to sever links with PRC to recognise ROC, but who wants to do that except KMT?
just becuse china says a country can’t recognise taiwan as the ROC does not mean shit. sure, cop a bit of a trade blow for a while, but if it is near-simultaneous from a lot of countries, what is the big bad red star going to do in all reality? they need to sell us their poorly made clothes and shoes, or they starve too, and they can’t live off their pile of US dollars for terribly long if the US says: “feck off, if you don’t recognise me then i declare all your dollar bills to be worthless paper (which they can do)”. will they attck the whle world at once? (personally, i would love to see that, just so i can see the kind of eggs they get thrown back at them, but only from a safe place like new zealand.
the only people who have a problem with tw independence are china and the golden horse and his friends. (that’s Ma YingJeo, for those who miss the reference). so many other countries would love to have this stupid situation dealt with and put away for once and for all. wat is takes is a co-ordinated declaration by as many countries as possible, which is why china continually starves tw of any and every opportunity to get about as a state and make its presence and its case known. mind you, another thing stopping it is the head in the sand and the cowardly politics here.
things would have been much easier if the KMT has not still been in totalitarian occupation of this island with their dream of FuHsing in 1972, and ceded the rights to the name ‘china’ to the CCP and stuck to the name taiwan for this place (which in 1949 was a stateless territory under US military occupation ceded from japan as a war price, and had less than 0.01% of fuck all to do wth the ROC as set up in 1911). but no, they were selfish and blind too…
Yes, and an account of how unification might be achieved.
I’m not interested in just anyone’s analysis. Armchair analysts are a dime a dozen. I want to hear from the policy-makers on either side of the political fence here in Taiwan. Deafening silence comes in shades of blue and green, it seems.
I believe Nicaragua currently recognizes both countries. So far, China hasn’t ruled out maintaining relations with that country, or better stated, restarting relations despite that country’s stated aim of maintaining relations with the ROC.
As some people have stressed, achieving independence will require several powerful countries to collectively point out the Yellow Emperor’s lack of clothing. But what could China do if Japan, the US, Britain, Canada, India and Taiwan’s official allies all collectively recognized Taiwan’s newly declared autonomy. (Notice, I didn’t mention Australia, currently the world’s leading political sycophant to China.)
And Maoman, aren’t you supposed to be promoting and encouraging these armchair discussions of Taiwan and all things Taiwanese on this forum? Why are you trying to shush us geopolitical wannabes? I’m puzzled by this attitude coming from someone who actually works for Forumosa.
Yes, but not in this thread. This thread is about the KMT’s and DPP’s vision, or lack of it, for Taiwan. There are already plenty of threads dedicated to what posters think about Independence or Unification. Let’s keep this one on topic.
Okay, I think this turnaround by Ma will cost him a lot of support from the light green and light blue camps. It may also empower Wang Jin-pyn somewhat should he decide to run as an alternative to Ma for the KMT presidential nomination. So I am confused as to what Ma’s strategy is in saying what he said. Maybe he’s testing the waters somehow.
What is so different about Wang and Ma views on the Strait Issue?
Isn’t Wang hawkish against Japan as well over Diaoyutai.
The only realpolitik issue between the two men are are percieved WSR and BSR background.
Been busy for a while, but I see the world still has a need for my antics. Back to add a key clarification:
No, wrong. The PRC and Nicaragua do not have diplomatic relations.
[quote]As some people have stressed, achieving independence will require several powerful countries to collectively point out the Yellow Emperor’s lack of clothing. But what could China do if Japan, the US, Britain, Canada, India and Taiwan’s official allies all collectively recognized Taiwan’s newly declared autonomy. (Notice, I didn’t mention Australia, currently the world’s leading political sycophant to China.)[/quote]Same thing it did when the PRC existed without Japanese, American, British, Canadian recognition for the first 2 decades of its existence. I see no reason to break economic ties, but it will certainly imply death of any major international multi-lateral organization: United Nations and WTO for starters. It also suggests the PRC should stop working in a multi-lateral fashion. In order to compensate for her struggling economy… we’ll just go back to providing road-mobile nuclear-tipped ICBMs to North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela. The “axis of evil” gains a new member.
Oh, but the PRC wouldn’t “dare” to escalate to that level… because the US would just arm Japan with nuclear weapons, etc, etc. For every escalation that the United States brings to the table, China can escalate further. It’s a global game of chicken where both sides pay the price. Ultimately, the United States + the West probably would win. China would be destroyed or “regime-changed”, and Taiwan would be independent. But every single person in the West would pay a heavy, personal price. Millions will be dead, and tens of million will be impoverished. It will be the Iraq debacle, made global.
Will foreign policy decision-makers in the West have an interest in playing this game for the sake of protecting Taiwan’s “independence”? Those walking the halls of Washington DC aren’t young, bored, over-educated professionals working in Taiwan with little in the way of assets; they probably see the question in very different ways.
The first thing to accept that it is possible for questions to not have clear answers. The lack of a clear vision on the parts of both the KMT and the DPP is a reflection of the fact that these are difficult issues with numerous unknowns, and we’ll have answers only with time.
The KMT’s vision has been articulated in a series of white papers and speeches.
Five points of agreement between Lien and Hu:
一、 促進盡速恢復兩岸談判，共謀兩岸人民福祉。
Move towards a revival of cross-strait talks, seek to mutually improve the prosperity/interests of the people on both sides of the strait.
二、 促進終止敵對狀態，達成和平協議。
Move to halt animosity, initiate peaceful negotiation.
三、 促進兩岸經濟全面交流，建立兩岸經濟合作機制。
Help expand cross-strait economic exchanges, establish structure for cross-strait economic cooperation.
四、 促進協商台灣民眾關心的參與國際活動的問題。
Help negotiate the key question of international participation, important to all Taiwanese;
五、 建立黨對黨定期溝通平台。
Establish a party-to-party platform for regulator exchanges.
Those are the principals. There’s a longer list of specific policies on that page, but all are about short-term changes.
Now, what about the longer term issues? Well, any change in the longer term is predicated on gradual formation of consensus amongst the Taiwanese and mainland Chinese polity. No one can predict exactly how that will come about with complete accuracy. Again, pretend we were brought back to the year 1957, and asked to explain the state of the world in 2007… how many would understand the dramatic changes that we’ve seen? Who knows what we’ll see in the year 2057?
Ma (representing the KMT) has advocated a 50 year mandate where all that is discussed are the short-term policy changes on the basis of the 5 principals above. He’s looking at your question about policies for reunification (political/economic/social), and admitting that he doesn’t know the answer. But he believes that in 50 years, our grandchildren who’ve grown up living and working next to each other, may have the wisdom to bridge the gap we have before us.
Yes, and an account of how unification might be achieved.[/quote]
Elementary my dear Watson. We have the 3rd PLA airborne division in Taibei. The 1st army division in Tainan. The 12th group army in Taizhong. The 13th and 14th group armies in Gaoxiong (those betelnut bandits may get rowdy). The 112th mechanized infantry in Xinchu with the 10th armoured division rounding things up in Hualien.
Chocolates, bouquets, and music for our patriotic comrades suffering under the yoke of the DPP splittists. Firing squads and gulags for everyone else.
Naturally I jest, but this is a much more realistic assessment of what could happen when compared to the “if we claim to be a U.S. state…” or “China can’t invade us! This piece of paper says so!” schools of thought.
interesting last few posts, especially CC Tang’s which highlights exactly the issue I was trying to tip toe around, namely that international support for TI will only come from nations who’s people are ready and willing to go to war for Taiwan, something Taiwanese, even green ones, seem unwilling to do…
cmdjing, your post paints a scary picture, I don’t want the PLA at my front door any more than the next guy, but I doubt that would be necessary… the recent earthquake and resulting communications turmoil shows just how easily an aggressor could just cut the communication / internet lines, that and 3 or 4 well placed missiles on key power grids and Taiwan would be in the dark literally and figuratively… let’s hope it doesn’t come to that …
[quote=“almondbiscuit”]however, the fact that MYJ and the KMT is unwilling to consider independence and the fact that you stated this very fact in your paragraph, and the fact that you described the decisions of future generations “who have grown up living and working next to each other” as being based on “wisdom to bridge the gap” clearly evidences your assumption/belief that unification is the only “wise” way.
new point: fact that the polls show Taiwanese are moving further away from china rather than towards china in terms of identity doesn’t really sit well with your implicit comment that future generation 'who have grown up living and working next to each other" may be more amenable to unification. [/quote]
I wasn’t necessarily assuming that future generations growing up living/working next to each other would necessarily want reunification. I think it’s just as possible that both sides realize the differences are just too large… (Taiwanese too “traditional”, superstitious, ghost-believing, crude, rowdy; mainland Chinese too naive, corrupt, conformist, uneducated.)
Also, remember that Chinese nationalism is borne of historical weakness and fear. Look at the PRC’s national anthem; it calls upon all Chinese to rise up, because we face our moment of greatest peril, and that we must advance even as the enemy fire on us. Maybe in 50 years, mainland China is so solidly and confidently a world power, we can be more generous. Maybe Taiwan having “independent” political status at that point becomes just a quaint little factoid… like observing that cars drive on the left side in HK, but the right side everywhere else in China.
The point, IMO, is just realizing that both sides are too emotionally invested right now in opposing positions for a peaceful resolution to be possible. It’s simply not possible. Let’s work in positive ways that everyone should support, and move on.
As far as KMT and MYJ rejecting independence… well, this really is just domestic politicking. Openly accepting anything else sets the KMT on a slippery slope that they’re afraid will lead to a referendum for independence real soon, like, next year! It’s the same reason Beijing is willing to talk about the possibility of an “international presence” with the KMT… but are far more paranoid around the DPP. Taiwan’s a democracy, so who cares whether KMT/MYJ openly “accept” independence as a possibility. If the Taiwanese as a people really desire independence, it’s not as if the KMT can stand in their way.
But does anyone even suspects a war is possible??? For god sake… even if there is a huge cost of lives in Taiwan… it is fairly easy for Taiwan to make the number of victims in China be much higher (some missiles in nuclear plants (Guangdong, Lingao and Qinshang) and the 3 Gorges Dam), that would make unbearable for the CCP government to continue in Power… Eliminate the southeast of China, and you eliminate China…
Yes, I think the vast majority of military analysts believe a war is “possible”. Most believe it’s unlikely, because the PRC increasingly has military dominance… but “possible”. And no, I don’t think the Taiwanese military can hit mainland targets effectively; the PRC has deployed assets to prepare for US air-strikes, it’s more than ready for ROC forces. It’d take a strategic nuclear weapon to bring down the 3 Gorges Dam, and that’d guarantee a nuclear response from the mainland.
The PRC invests tens of billions every year on military spending, and it’s not a coincidence that all projects launched in recent years serve one primary tactical purpose: defeating Taiwan and the United States in a cross-strait war. For details, see: sinodefence.com/
even if the 3 gorges dam is under good protection, the guangdong nuclear power plants are not (they are on the coast…) so, effectively, are good targets. And, it wouldn’t take that long for the US forces based in SK or Japan to be able to attack Chinese ground. On the contrary of Iraq, Chinese have a lot to loose in case of war. Not to speak that an attack would most certainly put the world into an unprecedented economic crisis. The IT industry would need 5-10 years to recover, and China is dependent (whether you like it or not) on the IT industry.
[quote=“mr_boogie”]… Not to speak that an attack would most certainly put the world into an unprecedented economic crisis.
The IT industry would need 5-10 years to recover, and China is dependent (whether you like it or not) on the IT industry.
it wouldn’t take that long for the US forces based in SK or Japan to be able to attack Chinese ground.
[/quote]
mr_b… given that the first few sentences show that you understand the full scale global crisis that a Western war against China would cause, I can’t imagine how you still think it’s even remotely likely that the US or anyone else would entertain, even for an instant, the idea of taking a course of action that would lead to such a war… let alone over something as insignificant (globally speaking) as Taiwan…
so the same question again… what would motivate any country on earth to sacrifice their way of life, entire economy and lives of thousands of their citizens in an all out war with China, all because Taiwan wants the independence they already effectively have, written on a piece of paper at the UN?.. can anyone answer that one?..
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