Indian Stock Market surges

This seems like especially good news for India considering the funk that the rest of the world is stuck in.

Good news for India, perhaps, but I don’t know about the funk the rest of the world’s in. Yes, last fall and even Q1 everyone was saying the global recession would last all of 2009 and into 2010, but . . .

  • US stocks have been on a fantastic, steady incline since the beginning of the year, many gaining back 20, 30 or even 40% (after losing 50% in the prior year), and

  • My company announced several months ago that everyone would have 3 mandatory days off per month due to the crisis, but they’ve since dropped that plan, since things are so much better than expected and I believe many companies are also similarly positively surprised,

so I’m not sure the world IS in a funk, despite still rising unemployment and some other bad news. I get the impression the global economic crisis may be turning around (though admittedly it will still take a year or two to recover completely, and of course we don’t want to “recover” to artificial bubble levels of the past).

Obviously punters liked the winner of the elections, or maybe it’s just relief the country didn’t implode? In any case, India’s is a rather inward looking economy.

Interesting stuff, MT, there have been similar moves where I work.


I haven’t followed India itself much; I got out with a mixed bag of gains and losses (dumped half of my shares at the peak, half at the bottom, overall lost about US$3000). But the U.S. market surge is based on little more than hope and spare change. If you take a look at TBT, you’ll see that the rates on Treasuries are rising even though Bernanke is “printing” money to buy them. Foreign debt holders are dumping their Treasuries as fast as they can, because Bernanke’s bailout plans are going to devalue the dollar if he really follows through.

Denninger is expecting the next crash leg down some time late this summer or in the autumn. His take is that there will be a short-term drop, the market will recover and go to a new peak (not all-time, just for the year), and then the bond market will “dislocate” due to all the manipulation as investors give up in disgust. Can’t get a reasonable rate of return on your money to compensate for both risk and inflation, then sit on it at home, or move it somewhere else in the world.

There was a good article the other day on how a lot of money is on the sidelines waiting to go into the BRIC markets once things crash again. If I can find it, I’ll post a link later on.