Good point. My bad. Just mentally change my references to Chen above to say Lee Teng-hui.
My thinking is that China does NOT want the artifacts back. If TW were to offer to give it all back to them now (which the Tw people would largely support) they would NOT take it.
China Airlines is NOT allowed to change its name to Taiwan Airlines. China has changed all its commercial plane Tail numbers to start with B , in order to be the same as Taiwanâs.
China wants what the KMT has, whatever the KMT achieved, they want that. BEcause to them, strange as it sounds. The KMT is their brother, and they are all under the same family.
IF the US had given back Taiwan island to the Japanese and the KMT had taken over Hainan island, the very same conflict would today be between the same people.
Just on a different rock.
It would be sooooooooo doggone awesome, if all China wanted was the treasures at the Gugong museum. Because I can pretty much guarantee almost every Taiwanese would agree to give it all up in exchange for Independence.
Most Taiwanese feel all those treasures are CHINESE treasures and have to do with CHINESE history. Which they as Taiwanese want to continue to distance themselves from.
China is partly to blame. Because for so many decades the Taiwanese have considered themselves Chongkwo REn. OR Chinese people.
But the PRC has blocked Taiwan on the international arena from saying it is the Rep of China and that represents China. Even today Taiwan cant say its Olympics team is from the Rep of China, it has to say Chinese Taipei.
So by denying the Taiwanese to call themselves the Rep of China internationally and therefore acknowledge that they ARE Chinese, they now have decided to claim otherwise.
Now Taiwanese want to point out that they are in part TW aboriginal (something decades ago many would be ashamed to admit) and are not 100pct Chinese.
And they want to say UP YOURS CHINA, YOU CAN KEEP CHINA, WE DONT WANT IT, WE ARE NO LONGER CHINESE BUT TAIWANESE.
Even the children whos parents came from China with CashMYCheck are not so keen to say they are
Chinese, but keen to point out that they are Taiwanese.
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Itâs not ownership that is the issue. It is destruction.
No the Chinese would want the treasures intact. And they want the treasures IN Taiwan where they are, because they can continue to claim the treasures are still in China as Taiwan is a part of China.
Now youâre just ignoring me and trying to take all the credit. I see how it is. Itâs cool. Itâs all good
srorry, didnt see your post 
i started this thread on the last page.
but i certainly agree with ur position as u see
The Chinese dont want the treasures back in China, because they feel it IS in China and them being on Taiwan furthers their claim.
I think most Taiwanese would happily return them.
No doubt. Returning the pieces to the Mainland should not even be considered, as it would be the height of wilful folly without massive political and economic change.
Thatâs like saying the British Museum is in Burma but the Brits donât want it back because it shows ownership of Burma.
They want it back. It cannot even leave Taiwan in exhibitions. It is a symbol not of Chinaâs ownership of Taiwan but Taiwanâs independence from China. Thatâs why it is here.
It is a nice theory that all the rhetoric between Beijing and Taipei could be solved with artifacts. They were not stolen to preserve Taiwanese independence, they were taken by the Chiang gang when they high-tailed out of the mainland. They had every intention on re-taking the mainland.
My original point was and still is that Beijing could take Taiwan by any means necessary and suffer minimal, if any, consequences. If the Taiwanese are resting on the idea that the Americans will bail them out, they are sadly mistaken. It isnât that they canât, it is that they wonât. There is weakening congressional support for the TRA and the current administration has been rather cold to Taipei.
The Chinese apologists say that America is to blame for the perceived âsecurity dilemnaâ that exists in the region. If they would simply leave the region entirely, then all would be peaceful. They also claim that since Taiwan is a province of China (heck, I have even seen written a county of Fujian province!) that Beijing can do as it wishes with Taiwan and any interference would be considered an act of war.
Successive leaders in China have failed to solve the Taiwan issue, and even if it is their own law that says they must use peaceful means and only use non-peaceful means when any hope of peaceful unification is lost. Well, that is left to Beijing to decide when that is. Beefing up security and their military around the Straits is a sure sign that their patience is running out, or they are just wanting to show the world what they are capable of.
The failure of the West, particularly my government, is the way they sit idly by while this build up is taking place. Obviously, I cannot see behind the scenes, so its possible something is being done. But as it is right now, Beijing has unilaterally changed the status quo with this build up and it has done nothing except say they support the status quo.
Yes, but your original theory is wrong. They will suffer consequences not small among them is the potential destruction of their antiquity, which is what they are after.
Just because it is a museum doesnât make it a quaint theory. The sacking of Chinese art by the Brits and consequently the KMT and its vulnerability in Taiwan are considered the most embarrassing elements of Chinese history. If you understand anything about Chinese and embarrassment it isnât a trifling issue. It is the issue. In reality, China historically make few claims to Taiwan. In fact they burned a strip of land from the North Coast of China to the South Coast of China that was 10 miles wide just to dissociate China from Taiwan. That is essentially how Taiwan was populated, by refugees from China. Yet, in the upshot of it all its pride and joy sits nestled among the hills of its traditional enemy.
When it comes to finance, the economy, and creeping land ownership the Chinese can have it all and one day will, but what they cannot get their hands on without a fight is the museum. That is a simple fact of life. Yet, it is vulnerable to destruction.
I still think youâre overplaying the importance of the artifacts for China. And I would say âthe most embarrassing elements of Chinese historyâ are not about property but about land â China ceding the northeast and Taiwan to Japan and ceding Hong Kong and Macau to European powers â as well as being forced to import opium. Itâs much more likely China cares about Taiwan because it was taken by Japan than for any other reason.
And also the fact that it is pro-Western and democratic doesnât help either.
Iâm answering the question of: Is attack imminent?
I say no because China has too much to lose and into that mix goes the museum. I go as far to say that is Chinaâs primary interest in Taiwan. That is debatable, but the inescapable fact is that Chinaâs most prized antiquities are at risk of destruction or theft. On the other hand the Island of Taiwan is not vulnerable to any of that. You could bomb it into the ground and reoccupy it and move on from there if you so wished, but you would lose the one thing it has that you donât. That is how these things work the rest is just mind games you play with yourself. At the most fundamental level, that is what Taiwan has and that is what China wants. The rest is acquirable over time.
You should learn a little about the market in Chinese antiquities. It is more valuable than that of the masters such as Goya, DĂźrer, da Vinci, Tintoretto, Raphael, and Vermeer, Bortticelli, Bellini etc. The new rich in China want their antiquities for investment, glamour and simple prestige. This makes the museum all the more vulnerable. The 2010 Southerbys auction sold out at 410 million USD. That was just one auction. To put that into perspective Taiwanâs biggest company made 3 billion in 2010. This was just an auction.
My argument is, or has evolved to, that China has nothing to lose by simply taking the Island.
It is correct to say that the Chinese are embarrassed and humiliated. The PRC has won the mainland, but not the civil war since the ROC still (stay with me) exists. I really do appreciate how passionate and certain you are of your argument, that the Museum holds the key to settling this mess, but it just seems too simple. Peace can be achieved in the Western Pacific for a few vases and relics? I respect your view and I would hope that is all there is to it.
Back to my point. China has nothing to lose by taking Taiwan by force. Because, exactly what are they going to face? Sanctions? Embargoes? Not a chance. There is way too much money tied into China that too many corporations would lose big if the US placed immediate and complete sanctions on China and the US stands to be the biggest loser of such an endeavor. What plants and factories can be started up, or restarted up, or expanded to handle the impact of increased pressure because the US cut off China from producing its goods? A disruption in the iPad/iPhone supply chain would cause a hipster riot that would make Tiananmen look like a few disgruntled kids. And I have to say the US because I have a feeling they would be going it alone. What does Europe have to lose in this scenario? I am not so certain the EU would follow the US in any condemnation. Didnât David Cameron apologize to Hu Jin-tao over the Taiwan flag flap at the Olympics?
But in that view, economic interdependence, who relies on who the most?
Which brings me back to my original statement. Since they really have nothing to lose, and a military expansion and build up along the Straits, is an attack imminent? Many have pointed out in this thread that if China wanted to, they could have taken Taiwan already. I agree. What I do not agree on is why they havenât.
A good discussion. I am glad I found this place.
Viva Taiwan Libre!
It could lose its history. That you cannot dance around.
Except, and this is vital, the support of the Taiwanese people. China isnât interested in Taiwan for its geographical marvels (although I wouldnât fault you for believing as much if youâve ever seen mainland tourists fawning over the Queenâs Head at Yeliu). Beijing wants the whole deal, people and all. They messed up big in 1996, when they wanted to send Taiwanese âa messageâ note to vote for Lee Teng-hui and not to question their identity as Chinese. Ironically, it sealed the deal for Lee and shored up support for Taiwanese independence.
Since then, the PRC has taken a honey-instead-of-vinegar approach. Closer economic ties, Taiwanese businessmen in the mainland, academic and cultural exchanges. If China attacks Taiwan, they lose the small amount of integration of the past 5 years that theyâve been waiting for since 1979.
Utterly poignant.
History has had more than enough of the around dancers.
Yes it does. The CCP is basing its legitimacy on economic growth. PLA hawks would not likely long survive as national leaders after an armed conflict with Taiwan as their claim to legitimacy is nationalism, which most of todayâs Chinese are only cool when it is compatible with economic growth. Virtually no one in China wants to go back to Maoism. The moment nationalism becomes incompatible with economic growth is the moment where it will start to lose its legitimacy, and crumble.
How would attacking Taiwan affect economic growth? If China attacked Taiwan, then the US would be obligated to intervene, or else concede the Western Pacific, which would also mean conceding SE Asia, Australia and New Zealand. It would also change the balance of power in the Indian Ocean. In short, China taking over Taiwan would change the entire worldâs balance of power. So the US would not accept it, so thereâd be a fight which would screw up the entire global economy, including Chinaâs, as financial and product flows were interrupted. Chinaâs citizens would scream about the loss of growth, and leaders would tumble.
So Chinaâs leaders actually have a lot to lose.
saaaaaafe
That I agree with. That is why China wants the US in the Western Pacific. However, it is to control the pressure from growing nationalism at home. Much of Chinaâs nationalism is coming from a grass roots level, undoubtedly manipulated by the CCP initially but now it is becoming something of a threat to government and has ambitions of its own. This has been strongly evidenced in the Senkaku Islands stand off. Although, that stand off has been going on for years, it was going to culminate in disaster. The Little Leader provided the circuit breaker and allowed the US to penetrate deeper into the Pacific. That is needed to put a lid on the aspirations of nationalism among the lower classes in China, disaffected factory workers etc.