Upon reading the Taipei Times this morning and reading about the new missiles aimed, primarily, at the US to keep them out of any cross strait conflict, coupled with the report a few months ago about a video of how an attack on Taiwan would proceed, I cant help but get the feeling that an attack is imminent, regardless what Taiwan does.
China is not developing or building defensive weapons, they are putting their money in offensive weapons. Given, any weapon can be used for either, but lets play along with this idea.
China seems to be itching to spread its wings, to flex its muscle, to expand out. Even if we placate them and say Taiwan is apart of China blah, blah, where would they stop and what incentive would there be for them to stop. Taiwan could just become their testing ground for whatever. Their new bombing range complete with targets!
I think it is pretty much a given that if China really wanted to take Taiwan, they could with nothing more than a few mild harumphs from the international community. I think they know and understand that. But I also think they want to show the world what they can do and attacking, if not out right obliterating, Taiwan would be an impressive show of force. Ma could go begging on his knees to Beijing and surrender these lovely people to the PRC whims, I do not think that would change anything.
Japan, Korea, The Philippines, Vietnam and a few others might go on edge, but that would be about it. Everyone knows, its even been discussed here, the PRC could give zero shits less on what anyone thinks about them taking Taiwan. Just like Bush when he ordered the invasion of Iraq. Also, the Middle East did not implode like many thought. A neighbor went on edge, but he rest were kind of “oh isn’t that nice?” Would the same hold true for East Asia? Or would Taiwan be a stepping stone to something bigger, a real game changer?