War is their job, at least if you’re talking about RAND and co.[/quote]
War is a racket. RAND, PNAC, Zbigniew Brzezinski. All that lot. And a bunch of even murkier manipulators, I’m sure. Luckily, they are losing traction right now, and some moderates are slowly taking control. Painfully slowly, but it is happening.
Stupid policy decisions happen all the time. That’s one major reason I don’t agree with sofun. He has too much faith in American leaders.[/quote]
Disagree. Any nation should be ready for war to defend its interests and the interests of its friends and allies. You don’t get to be the lynchpin of the global order and a pacifist.
The US did nothing to help Ukraine, a NATO aspirant. I have no delusions that it would start a war with China for a similar situation.
Lose Ukraine, the US has the EU as a buffer. Lose Taiwan, China would be at the front door.
What do you call Japan?
Both Taiwan and Japan are only part of the first island chain defense.
My point is that like the EU, Japan is a buffer. Taiwan is to Japan as Ukraine is to EU.
The difference is that the EU is the regional power, not the US. In the Pacific region it’s the US who’s (at least aiming to be) the regional power.
The difference is that the EU is the regional power, not the US. In the Pacific region it’s the US who’s (at least aiming to be) the regional power.[/quote]
The US has been the regional power in the Pacific since WWI, the only power remotely compares to the US in the Pacific was Japan before WW2.
The differences between losing Ukraine to losing Taiwan is as a regional water shortage to a dam failure.
That’s pretty much what I said, yes.
Well, (UN resolutions aside) the US has no moral or political obligation to help the Ukraine and several not to, and it still DID sanction Russia. They’ve already violated the agreements made to Putin not to recruit former Eastern bloc states into NATO which is exactly why Russia is not letting Ukraine smuggle the Crimea into the Western bloc. Brinkmanship over something so undeniably Russian as the Crimea would be pointless from a US perspective. Brinkmanship over Taiwan is a much more pertinent issue because the US has made itself a large number of moral, military and political obligations to uphold the order it built in Asia.
Also I meant to reply before to your comment about bad policy decisions, I agree that bad decisions have and will be made, and sincerely hope abandoning Taiwan isn’t such a bad decision made any time soon. Not just because I live here and I like it, but because it’d be the end of an age of relative peace and prosperity.
Guys. You’ve got it all wrong.
Korea is to China as Ukraine to Russia. Half a Korea is still a Korea good for US and Japan. The other half Korea is still a Korea good enough for China. Same thing when it comes to Ukraine.
Sent in volunteer armies? China’s been there and done that, in Korea.
Ukraine to Russia is what Korea is to China, historically and emotionally.
And it has reneged on these obligations before. Politicians do what they think is in their best interests, not what they think is morally right. If there is much to be gained by abandoning Taiwan, I am under no illusion that Washington will take the moral high ground.
Taiwan to US is what Senkaku to Japan.
Taiwan is to Japan as Japan is to US.
China’s claiming Taiwan in the face of US has exactly the same motivation of China’s claiming Senkaku in the face of Japan. It is basically the desire to buy, to cheat, to bargain, or to trade for an act of submission. It is like a non-committing shopper who missed the 50% OFF sale but comes to the store angry with that expired coupon.
This is my new favorite description for Taiwan-China relations.
This is my new favorite description for Taiwan-China relations.[/quote]
Yeah and he’s still waiting for the 50% sale to come back. He’d tell you he can wait. He’d even tell you that he doesn’t need it and he won’t buy it regular price. In fact , he’d never buy at regular price. He’d tell you that item is not that good anyway and nobody else wants it. He’d tell you he’s doing you a favour by getting rid of it.
I agree with your sentiment that we can’t blindly hope democratically elected officials will do the wise thing, but the military/intelligence wing of US government knows what must be done and hopefully won’t let themselves be bullied into suicide. Btw, can you give me an example of what you describe above? I can’t think of anything except maybe pulling out of the Vietnam and Korean Wars.
I like this metaphor a lot and I think it’s a very cogent point that the Senkaku/Diaoyutai dispute and the Taiwan dispute are both based purely on the same selfish motivation (ideological basis for continued CCP domination). If the CCP cannot overcome the ‘Century of Humiliation’ and reform and maintain a complete, peaceful, prosperous One China, it has no reason to exist by its own logic. This is what you get for manipulating history into a totalising narrative: Fulfil your prophecy or die. At least I get the feeling that’s how they see it, because literally the only thing to gain in these disputes is face for the Party and the losses are potentially catastrophic.