Is the stock market heading for a bigger plunge?

Is the stock market heading for a bigger plunge?

Recently we’ve seen a few big down days globally… similar to the start of the 2007/8 financial crisis early days.

The last crisis, I lost my job, school went bankrupt and went from 110k a month down to 40k and hardly recovered. A few years later, I find myself at 60k ceiling in the corporate world. However, sold my stock a few weeks back and instead shorted the market to hedge potential income losses.

If another crisis makes its way here, I wonder how that will change the landscape of Taiwan and incomes here.
How did the last financial crisis affect you and would you be ready for another?

Taiwan, U.S., or everywhere?

How did the last financial crisis affect you and would you be ready for another?

If the last crisis was 2007/2008, I didn’t even notice it. Where, and what kind of school did you work for? I have read that in times of economic uncertainty, education is usually still considered a priority. I work in a rural area where agriculture is the main industry. Eating is a bigger priority so this area was probably less affected.

Taiwan, U.S., or everywhere?[/quote]

Here is a good place to watch them all melt down… yes TWN included

stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?[ISHARE]

[quote=“navillus”]How did the last financial crisis affect you and would you be ready for another?

If the last crisis was 2007/2008, I didn’t even notice it. Where, and what kind of school did you work for? I have read that in times of economic uncertainty, education is usually still considered a priority. I work in a rural area where agriculture is the main industry. Eating is a bigger priority so this area was probably less affected.[/quote]

Good points… kids education matters and the show goes on, adults tend to stop their own English lessons during crunch time from my experience.

Since the year 2000, major Western stock markets are still trading under (German DAX, Frence CAC, UK FTSE) their nominal highs of 14 years ago. The only exception it seems is the US, where the the S&P500 large cap index is trading 30%+ above its 2000 high. Therefore, even though it seems like the bull market of the past 5 years is over, it might correct and then rocket higher. The likelihood of this happening increases exponentially with QE4’s expected arrival some time in 2015.

On October 17th, Hong Kong-based investment analyst, Puru Saxena, said:

Source: gold-eagle.com/article/passing-baton

Short the market? Be very nimble and very quick, 'cause once QE4 is announced your paper profits will most likely evaporate faster than you can log into your online brokerage account.

Personally, I’m on the sidelines accumulating cash. Remember, being in cash is also a strategy. :2cents:

Good analysis and thanks for the perspective. Interesting to see how the Shanghai bubble burst and never recovered.

One thing to note - each QE seems to be having less and less effect when implemented each time. Not actually where all the QE goes? Is it trickling through the banking system? Are consumers actually spending?

Japan has been running QE for many years and look where it got them.

Be nimble out there but remember the real money is made on the Big long term swings, not the fuzz in between… at least it’s been like that for me.

[quote=“cyberguppy”]Good analysis and thanks for the perspective. Interesting to see how the Shanghai bubble burst and never recovered.

One thing to note - each QE seems to be having less and less effect when implemented each time. Not actually where all the QE goes? Is it trickling through the banking system? Are consumers actually spending?

Japan has been running QE for many years and look where it got them.

Be nimble out there but remember the real money is made on the Big long term swings, not the fuzz in between… at least it’s been like that for me.[/quote]

It should be no surprise that QE is having less and less effect since they are tapering it to completion (hopefully soon) instead of just pulling the plug.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ebola scare doesn’t have something to do with the market struggles recently. If Ebola became a major issue then the int’l economy would be in big trouble. It’s not bad now (unless you are a west African country) but people are already talking about closing borders. The economy would grind to halt if there were 20-30 countries on multiple continents and countries started closing borders.

Ebola could be part of it but high valuations are a likely cause too.

hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140915.htm

My stocks are sucking :frowning: I need to sell them off if I’m going to go all in to import/export, I’m not rich or anything, but it would be nice if they had waited longer to nosedive.

Sorry to hear that…

Anyone know how to buy put options in Taiwan? I might need some extra protection in the near future.

What are your main holdings? Index ETFs? Large cap stocks?

[quote=“cyberguppy”]Sorry to hear that…

Anyone know how to buy put options in Taiwan? I might need some extra protection in the near future.[/quote]

Cyberguppy, are you invested in the Taiwanese market or the US market? Sounds like you are invested in the Taiwan market. In that case, contact your broker through which you purchased your ETFs. They should have a license to trade options for you.

Invested around the world…

Will eventually get round to calling broker (YUANTA)… I hope to use their online platform and will have to learn the necessary finance chinese for it :wink:

Guess that is the only way. Unless you know a broker/bank that can offer an English platform.

[quote=“cyberguppy”]

Guess that is the only way. Unless you know a broker/bank that can offer an English platform.[/quote]

Nope, sorry.

Market internals have been deteriorating throughout recent rally and looks like we may be in for another plunge.

Although last time I said that, we rocketed north. Here are some useful tools I’m looking at.

stockcharts.com/freecharts/dpgallery.html

technicalwatch.com/cum14/cum121214.htm

My investment strategy is focused around dividends, and I see a plunge as an opportunity to buy and the rest as a perfect chance to hold. Index ETF’s with a decent divident payout is the long term to go, I think.

Mote that my investment horizon is app. 2 decades.

Good strategy -

I follow similar (usually I wait for big bear markets and then invest all my cash savings). Sold out of my Taiwan ETF’s recently and got a double bagger. Still holding my other international ETF’s bought many years ago.

What ETF’s are you using? TW or international? Investing here or abroad? I heard Taiwan has a high dividend yield ETF fund. Not sure high it really is though.

FYI - maybe an oil ETF if it exists would be worth eyeing now.

marketwatch.com/story/four-o … 2014-12-15

[quote=“cyberguppy”]Good strategy -

I follow similar (usually I wait for big bear markets and then invest all my cash savings). Sold out of my Taiwan ETF’s recently and got a double bagger. Still holding my other international ETF’s bought many years ago.

What ETF’s are you using? TW or international? Investing here or abroad? I heard Taiwan has a high dividend yield ETF fund. Not sure high it really is though.

FYI - maybe an oil ETF if it exists would be worth eyeing now.

marketwatch.com/story/four-o … 2014-12-15[/quote]

I keep my savings abroad - I would prefer not to touch the Taiwan market.

Basically, due to the setupof my Hong Kong bank, I have to trade on the US market. There I need some help. Is there any tax advantage by buying the ETF’s over another exchange and not pay dividends tax in the US? If so, do anyone know how to set that up in practice? Interactie brokers? Any suggestions?

I am not a US citizen.

I in general throw my savings into ETF’s 2-3 times per year. I go for broader ETF’s which capture some sort of divident index. I recently bought DOO, I am thinking about IDV or if going for one with a low turnover and high risk DVYE or DVYA, neither of which are very liquid. However, if I do not plan to sell, the dividend payout would the the thing I would care about, not the exit strategy, of which I in principle have none. (I buy, I do not sell)

COP has been added to my watch list, so thanks for the tip.

Not sure about investing in the US to be honest…

I prefer to always reinvest the dividends I earn - not sure if any ETF’s are able to do this but I believe your brokers should provide this service. You can check this though…

etftrends.com/2010/10/how-et … dividends/
etftrends.com/2010/10/the-di … -comeback/

personal.vanguard.com/us/whatwe … endprogram

Which bank you using in HK? Perhaps they have a range of non US ETF’s you can trade. I sure hope they do because that’s what I have in mind since I don’t want all my TW savings tied up on the ROC or US.

Haven’t looked at it yet but I’m hoping I can technically handle my investments through HSBC here which apparently allows you to use their international English investments platform.