Really? One container ship has slowed down ME trade in a way diplomatic sabre rattling never could. ha!
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I donât mean right now, within the next year or two.
This invasion will be the largest amphibious operation in human history. Tens of thousands of vessels will be assembledâmostly commandeered from the Chinese merchant marineâto ferry 1 million Chinese troops across the strait, who will arrive in two waves. Their landing will be preceded by a fury of missiles and rockets, launched from the Rocket Force units in Fujian, Chinese Air Force fighter bombers flying in the strait, and the escort fleet itself.
That massive massing of stuff and people cannot happen in a void or under cover of the night. Fish in a barrel.
Easton estimates that Taiwanese, American, and Japanese leaders will know that the PLA is preparing for a cross-strait war more than 60 days before hostilities begin. They will know for certain that an invasion will happen more than 30 days before the first missiles are fired. This will give the Taiwanese ample time to move much of their command and control infrastructure into hardened mountain tunnels, move their fleet out of vulnerable ports, detain suspected agents and intelligence operatives, litter the ocean with sea mines, disperse and camouflage army units across the country, put the economy on war footing, and distribute weapons to Taiwanâs 2.5 million reservists.
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More nonsense. â Though there was no discussion on how their countries should coordinate their responseâ
Basically nothing. Sure theyâll cooperate by sitting in the bleachers and watching the show together. They donât have the guts to even think about intervening.
People who bet against America having the guts to do something usually come out badly. America wins when it decides it wants to enough; even when they donât, they usually leave you pretty messed up.
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Sure. We do see how badly China has been messed up recently, donât we.
Gee, I must have missed the Sino-American War. Howâd it go?
china showing off
China has said the exercises are meant to show its determination to defend the island, which it considers part of Chinese territory, though Taiwanâs status is one of the most sensitive political issues between Washington and Beijing.
UhmâŚno thanks?
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I donât know if they have a play here with the current political climate. Tsai won by a huge landslide and the opposition has weakened even more since then. Interference outside of a straight up military coup wonât swing elections by double digits. And we are talking about nearly 20% margins last election with a huge turnout.
I would also put my money if another election happened today, we would be talking about 25%+ margins with how China has acted and how Taiwan has excelled.
I would read âdetermination to defend the islandâ in the same way I read the PRCâs âdetermination to liberate Tibet.â
Guy
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I donât disagree. But I would not put it past the Chinese to still attempt some sort of political interference.
A political coup could be more effective than a military invasion.
âLet me in. I want to defend you.â
âAgainst what?â
âAgainst what Iâm going to do to you if you donât let me in.â
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One phone call in the near future from Beijing to Taipei: surrender within 24 hours or youâre finished. Weâll bomb you back to the Stone Age.
What would you do if you were Tsai? Sure you could make a bunch of phone calls but other than itâs be fait accompli.
Why? So they could be ostracized by the world and lose their power? Makes no sense.
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Triple down and make it fucking expensive.
If the choices are give it away for a guaranteed loss, mass incarceration of half the country
Or
Have a chance to win while making it at least fucking expensive and dealing them a GREAT loss.
I pick second.
Bomb us to the stone age! I dare you! Then you lose most of our valuables!
Paralyse the world with the end of TSMC! Do it!
Weâve got our finger on the worldâs dead manâs switch! Shoot!
Millions of Chinese would lose their jobs, their customers, their incomes by bombing Taiwan to the stone age. Would be the biggest self-wound in history. Do it!
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Why do you think actions always make sense? Did it make sense for hitler to invade USSR? No. But he did it anyways.
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He was high on meth.
Winnie donât do drugs.
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And the moral high ground with their own people, assuming collateral casualties from such a bombing from an untested PLA. I canât see the majority of mainland Chinese being happy to unnecessarily kill a bunch of innocent Taiwanese ChineseâŚ
It sorta did, as another poster noted on a different thread, and for the same reason the CCP might jump the gun here. They may have an advantage now that will probably shrink as the US repositions and bolsters support (and as Taiwan begins receiving shipments).
This is where the difference between a miscalculation and strategic genius can be a very fine -and dangerous- line.