Keynesian Economics is Wrong or Right

These problems are not related to gold or fiat currency but the weakness of the human heart and the complexity of systems. If you had gold backing things up only you know what would happen next, resource wars for gold and haves and have nots , only a different bunch of haves and have nots.

To be honest though it’s clear that oil is much more valuable than something like gold. You need oil and energy to do stuff like move around , create electricity, make things and fertilize the land. You can then extend this theory to all the useful products and services that a country or individual can supply or need.
If gold was so valuable or useful places like South africa should be ruling the world.

I added a poll.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]These problems are not related to gold or fiat currency but the weakness of the human heart and the complexity of systems. If you had gold backing things up only you know what would happen next, resource wars for gold and haves and have nots , only a different bunch of haves and have nots.

To be honest though it’s clear that oil is much more valuable than something like gold. You need oil and energy to do stuff like move around , create electricity, make things and fertilize the land. You can then extend this theory to all the useful products and services that a country or individual can supply or need.
If gold was so valuable or useful places like South africa should be ruling the world.[/quote]

There will always be resource wars. We are not talking about resource wars though. We are talking about the reasons for the decline in production of the west and its resulting deficits. This is not related to the issue with war.

I think the issue of oil is a sideline issue to this topic, unless somehow you can make it an integral part of the issue in an important sense.
If you are suggesting that we use oil as a currency and basis for a system of economics, then I find it difficult to see how.
I mean we could also use water in this case, which I argue is even more important than oil, or oxygen for that matter.

Gold is valuable, but how is this relative to South Africa as a nation exactly? Can you expand on your points a little?
I know for example that the mining industry is said to be worth around 18% of South Africa’s GDP.
But then you don’t only build a strong economy from digging up and spending precious metals. That money leaves your economy if you import more goods than you export. Precious metals are simply the currency you would trade with.

No one is suggesting there is a magic bullet. I went through my own country’s restructuring and debt reduction and it was very painful, but more so than it need to have been according to most reports (ie, the austerity was too much and contributed very little to debt reduction). But within 8 years Canada was back on its feet. This is not the end of the world for America.[/quote]

I read that IMF report and it was actually fairly vague, including putting caveats on Canada’s situation (the main reason, if I remember correctly, was strong external demand, which I take to mean a commodities boom, but correct me if I’m wrong).

One trillion dollars is hardly a small sum, despite what you think. Also, the problem with record low interest rates is that they don’t stay that way forever, as Greece is currently finding out. If the economy is funded by deficit spending, at some point, the market loses faith, and rates increase quite dramatically in quite a short period of time.

Also, your points about how many people would have been affected by the stimulus are conjecture. People promised all sorts of things with the last stimulus, but so what? Once again, one trillion dollars is hardly marginal.

[quote=“BigJohn”]@GiT:

I still think you are being a bit alarmist, quoting the most extreme figures and then advocating extreme solutions.

The main problem over the next few years is the deficit. Getting that down below 3% of GDP is the first priority. This would stablize the nation’s finances considerably. Obama’s budget will almost get the US there by 2015.

Step 2 is bringing the deficit down to under 2% so that debt reduction can begin.

Taxing the rich, that is ending Bush era tax breaks to the rich, would help, as would gradually cutting spending - hopefully in synch with a recovery. No one is suggetsing they liquidate the top 400 fortunes in the country, as you colorfully but irrelevantly suggest.

Step 3 is a real long term plan for the economy, a difficult thing in the American system. But the bottom line would be steady reduction of debt, ad infinitum.

If drastic moves NOW were essential to saving the US economy there would be a consensus on that, as there was for the stimulus packages in 2008 and beyond. Let’s not forget that this is an election year and that there are plenty of fiscal hawks ready to pounce on this moment as a chance to defeat “socialism” in America forever.

About the welfare state in general, I hear you. Some sort of cultural change is necessary. But measured and calculated, not slash and burn by the billionaires.[/quote]

I’m not suggesting anyone is actually saying confiscate all the wealth of the wealthiest people, simply that taxing the rich alone wouldn’t solve the problem. The middle class is going to have to take a hit too if taxation is the path taken, but no politician in his right mind is ever going to admit that.

No it didn’t. The financial crisis and the ensuing recession were not caused by government spending/debt. What are you talking about?[/quote]

Just a little thing called fiat currency, precious metals confiscation, Fanny and Freddie, the housing bubble, illegal foreign wars, bank bailouts, GM bailouts etc., etc. All government debt printing, and poor investments. Let’s remember here, it is not the job of the U.S. Federal government to print IOUs, to make loans to private enterprises, or make investments on behalf of the public. In no way does the constitution make mention of this or make allowances for this type of behaviour.[/quote]

That’s a bit like that scene out of Life of Brian. Yeah, okay, but so what else has the American government done wrong?! Huh! See, you can’t name anything!

Since the definition of inflation is “a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.” how can “keeping the price of goods artificially low” jibe with “the government keeps inflating the economy”?

Except of course for the “invisible inflation” that we keep hearing about but never see, but are assured is coming, nonetheless.

Half of you guys don’t know what you are talking about. I guess that’s what happens when you learn about economics through a textbook or by watching tv. Debt doesn’t matter if it’s denominated in a currency that the nation can print. Let’s assume tomorrow that the U.S. government slashes expenditures by 50%. All of that money entering the economy would be gone. Budget balancing doesn’t mean anything. Countries are not single households.

The main problem is getting money into peoples hands without causing inflation. Governments everywhere are trying to export their way out of recession. How exactly does that work? Who is buying? And if so with money from where? The U.S. has a history of being the buyer of goods, you know why? Housing bubble and people that were relatively overpaid. Now governments everywhere are trying their best to support their own economies. Direct support. This is the direction that the world is heading into. Mercantalism. Those that work in industries that are getting support will be better off than the others. In the US that’s finance at any of the major banks/investment banks, anything “defense” related, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals, and others.

You guys don’t know what you are talking about. Bananas, apples. Bananas are best, soft and fruit. Apples, crunchy. Big ones, small ones, that’s the ones people want. Ask the people. Farmers, that’s where it’s at. Agriculture. They can always grow more apples, and bananas, even mangos too.

I learned my economics from Fcom debates with all of you. So if you think I know nothing you have only yourself to blame. :raspberry: :laughing:

I only learned half of it.

There is the right half and the wrong half. If you don’t already know which half you belong to…

[quote=“MikeN”][quote=“sulavaca”]
During the second world war, the U.S. debt, inflation adjusted climbed from around half a trillion U.S.D. to around 2.5 trillion U.S.D. and then diminished to around a pretty stable 1.7 trillion U.S.D. during the period after the war and when the U.S. remained back on the gold standard, up until 1971. Since 1971 when the U.S. resumed it’s fiat currency however there was a sharp rise in the level of debt, and the U.S. is standing at an official 16 trillion dollars of public held debt today. That of course doesn’t even count the debt associated with any present programs and future payment obligations, which if accounted for actually put present U.S. debt levels at 500% of present GDP. Present government debt obligations, which are presently unaccounted for in any present budget and are not considered part of the national debt exceed 60 trillion dollars to be paid out in the next twenty years. That’s more than five times what Americans have borrowed for car loans, home loans, and anything else.[/quote]

Debt went down under Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, and Carter. It went up again under Reagan and HW Bush, started to turn down again under Clinton, and then went up again under George W. Bush and Obama.
The reason it went up under Obama was that he took office in the middle of the greatest recession since the Great Depression, whereas Reagan’s and the Bushs’ debt increases were structural (as opposed to cyclical)- Republicans want to cut taxes, but they don’t want to take the political hit from cutting spending.

Gold has nothing to do with it.

[quote]Put simply, it is government debt which has been keeping prices of goods artificially low, or in other words, true prices which haven’t been realised.
It’s the government which keeps inflating the economy and out of trouble. As long as the U.S. government can continue to get away with inflating the U.S. down the road, then the road will theoretically never end.
[/quote]

Since the definition of inflation is “a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.” how can “keeping the price of goods artificially low” jibe with “the government keeps inflating the economy”?

Except of course for the “invisible inflation” that we keep hearing about but never see, but are assured is coming, nonetheless.[/quote]

Truman: Gold standard in place. 1948 national debt: 252,292,246,512.99 to Jan 20th 1953: around 263,000,000,000.00

Eisenhower: No gold standard and three recessions within his time as president. He created an expanding economy fuelled by debt. Private debt more than doubled from $104.8 billion to $263.3 billion during the Fifties. So no drop in debt there at all. Also the fifties was the first time the U.S. was introduced to the personal credit card.

Johnson: Vietnam war time. National debt rose 16.9% during his time as president. 1963: 309,346,845,059.17 to 1969: 368,225,581,254.41

Nixon: One of the worst presidents in history economically speaking. I suggest anyone does a simple google search to see to what extend Nixon screwed the entire country over. There are too many examples to list.

Kennedy (on a silver standard, but winding it down): 1961 debt: 288,970,938,610.05 to 1963 debt; 305,859,632,996.41. Responsible for executive order 11110 which put a wind down on redemption of silver notes. Silver redemption ended 1964.

I’m sorry MikeN, but the list goes on and I really don’t have the time. I mean I don’t really know how you came up with your examples, and perhaps you’d like to share more information, but really I think you may have just cobbled some names together from another blogger somewhere who has a particular favouritism towards certain presidents, but for a reason I am unsure of. I would suggest doing some fact checking and perhaps posting some figures to support your statements.

I mean even since Bush, and under Obama, Obama is responsible for way, way more debt than Bush could have even dreamed of. Bush certainly didn’t do a job as president to offer anything positive for the country or the economy as a whole, but Obama’s methods are just a continuation of Bush’s bailout policy times infinity.

I think one of the cruxes in this whole debate here is that perhaps some of you think that top down economics is the way to go. It was always the intent of the constitution for example to put economic power into the hands of the masses, and to inhibit the government from this sort of meddling.
America lost the free market whenever it came off the precious metals standard, and it has always suffered greatly as a result.
I don’t know what to say. I mean all the charts, all the stats, all lessons from history tell us the same thing. One, that nations can’t expand beyond their currencies, and two, that fiat currency based economies have the shortest lifespans of all. If that doesn’t sound or seem right to some of you, then I’m sorry for you for either not doing any sort of fact checking at all, or being suckered by those who wish more power to print and more power to tax.
I don’t see anyone trying to offer any sort of evidence that fiat currency, over all the failed examples of it is in someway more successful.
If by success however you mean that more material goods can be purchased in the short term as a direct result of increased debt, and that somehow debt can be maintained and expanded indefinitely, then I’m sorry that you are in for a rude awakening. And you can quote me on that.
If you believe so much in such currencies and methods, then I strongly suggest that you invest in the U.S.D. and British pound.
I will continue, whenever possible to purchase precious metals as I have been for the past few years.

[quote=“sulavaca”]Truman: Gold standard in place. 1948 national debt: 252,292,246,512.99 to Jan 20th 1953: around 263,000,000,000.00

Eisenhower: No gold standard and three recessions within his time as president. He created an expanding economy fuelled by debt. Private debt more than doubled from $104.8 billion to $263.3 billion during the Fifties. So no drop in debt there at all. Also the fifties was the first time the U.S. was introduced to the personal credit card.

Johnson: Vietnam war time. National debt rose 16.9% during his time as president. 1963: 309,346,845,059.17 to 1969: 368,225,581,254.41

Nixon: One of the worst presidents in history economically speaking. I suggest anyone does a simple google search to see to what extend Nixon screwed the entire country over. There are too many examples to list.

Kennedy (on a silver standard, but winding it down): 1961 debt: 288,970,938,610.05 to 1963 debt; 305,859,632,996.41. Responsible for executive order 11110 which put a wind down on redemption of silver notes. Silver redemption ended 1964.
[/quote]

You call that an argument. That is just a random collection of names and figures and precious metals. :laughing:

[quote=“Mucha Man”][quote=“sulavaca”]Truman: Gold standard in place. 1948 national debt: 252,292,246,512.99 to Jan 20th 1953: around 263,000,000,000.00

Eisenhower: No gold standard and three recessions within his time as president. He created an expanding economy fuelled by debt. Private debt more than doubled from $104.8 billion to $263.3 billion during the Fifties. So no drop in debt there at all. Also the fifties was the first time the U.S. was introduced to the personal credit card.

Johnson: Vietnam war time. National debt rose 16.9% during his time as president. 1963: 309,346,845,059.17 to 1969: 368,225,581,254.41

Nixon: One of the worst presidents in history economically speaking. I suggest anyone does a simple google search to see to what extend Nixon screwed the entire country over. There are too many examples to list.

Kennedy (on a silver standard, but winding it down): 1961 debt: 288,970,938,610.05 to 1963 debt; 305,859,632,996.41. Responsible for executive order 11110 which put a wind down on redemption of silver notes. Silver redemption ended 1964.
[/quote]

You call that an argument. That is just a random collection of names and figures and precious metals. :laughing:[/quote]

Well if you can’t draw your own correlations between debt, financial stability, fiat currency and war/empire building, then I’m sorry I can’t help you. I presumed that everyone could do basic maths and would draw their own conclusions. I prefer to let the figures speak for me. Should I have to raise my voice and make serious eye brow gestures at the same time perhaps?
If you please take note, I did not include any precious metals stats in this particular post. I believe I posted a clear chart on precious metals value in a former post which also seems to me to show a very clear correlation between the value of gold and fiat U.S.D.

Here’s an interesting paper on the correlation between currency controls, system of government, and debt and about how this all affects economic freedom and a healthy economy: heritage.org/index/book/chapter-1

Eight pages of debate concerning the proposition “Keynesian Economics is Wrong or Right” and I can’t say I’m entirely sure what the neo-Keynesian proposition actually is. On the off chance I’m not the only one who is confused here’s my best shot at nailing down the core neo-Keynesian argument:

Economies in the U.S. and EU have seized up because of widespread capitalist malfeasance which led to an unprecedented loss of consumer and business confidence. High levels of national debt, debt to GDP ratios or other structural phenomena are not contributory causes. Because massive loss of confidence is the real problem, the only way to restore confidence and get developed economies going again is to borrow massive amounts of money and inject it into these economies in the form of government spending on infrastructure projects, education and aid to the poor. If you don’t inject massive amounts but only moderate amounts you’ll get caught in a liquidity trap which creates the illusion that economic stimulus isn’t working. While national debt may go up significantly in the process, there is no alternative and national debt doesn’t really matter anyway because both the U.S. and the EU can always print all the money they need without any adverse effects.

Fair?

The one missing piece of the puzzle for me is how neo-Keynesianism accounts for the possibility of defection by bond traders, foreign and domestic, given that forty cents of every dollar currently spent by the U.S. government, for example, is borrowed. Is there no real possibility that the lending spigot will be turned off one day if U.S. national debt goes too high and, if not, why not?

To me, the Keynesian ideas are:

  1. Austerity measures during a recession are counter-productive.
  2. Tax increases during a recession are counter-productive.
  3. Spend during recessions, cut down when times are good.

[quote=“Winston Smith”]Eight pages of debate concerning the proposition “Keynesian Economics is Wrong or Right” and I can’t say I’m entirely sure what the neo-Keynesian proposition actually is. On the off chance I’m not the only one who is confused here’s my best shot at nailing down the core neo-Keynesian argument:

Economies in the U.S. and EU have seized up because of widespread capitalist malfeasance which led to an unprecedented loss of consumer and business confidence. High levels of national debt, debt to GDP ratios or other structural phenomena are not contributory causes. Because massive loss of confidence is the real problem, the only way to restore confidence and get developed economies going again is to borrow massive amounts of money and inject it into these economies in the form of government spending on infrastructure projects, education and aid to the poor. If you don’t inject massive amounts but only moderate amounts you’ll get caught in a liquidity trap which creates the illusion that economic stimulus isn’t working. While national debt may go up significantly in the process, there is no alternative and national debt doesn’t really matter anyway because both the U.S. and the EU can always print all the money they need without any adverse effects.

Fair?

The one missing piece of the puzzle for me is how neo-Keynesianism accounts for the possibility of defection by bond traders, foreign and domestic, given that forty cents of every dollar currently spent by the U.S. government, for example, is borrowed. Is there no real possibility that the lending spigot will be turned off one day if U.S. national debt goes too high and, if not, why not?[/quote]

Well it’s never happened before, so I think we’re golden. All snouts to the trough, ASAP! The feedin’s a good!

I can draw all manner of correlations and conclusions from random bits of information plucked from over several decades. So can anyone. I know you are sincere in your beliefs but that doesn’t make them true or well argued.

A simple chart to explain it all for you.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USDebt.png
Of course the figure to watch is debt as a percentage of GDP- if I make $100 a week and owe you $90, I’m in trouble; if I make a $1000 and owe you $100, not so much.