KMT primary for the 2020 Presidential Election

I figured it might be helpful to have a forum discussing the twists and turns in the KMT primary as we head toward the 2020 presidential election.

As we know, the DPP incumbent Tsai Ing-wen was able to fend off challenger Lai Ching-te aka William Lai in the DPP primary. Barring some disaster, she will represent the ruling party in the 2020 election.

For the KMT, the main players are frontrunner and apparently part-time Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu; Foxcon(n)man Guo Tai-ming aka Terry Gou; and former Xinbei Mayor Eric Chu, who is apparently serving the role of being the KMT’s marginalized voice of reason. Other fringe candidates are also vying for the nomination, but these seem to be the three most likely candidates to become the KMT nominee, which will be announced on July 15.

Some fantastic pieces have appeared in English on this race.

Brian Hioe at New Bloom has written a helpful detailed blow-by-blow account of the three KMT primary debates:

Political scientist Nathan Batto in his indispensable Frozen Garlic blog has posted a richly textured and witty account of the KMT primary race:

What do forumosans think? How will the KMT candidates—if elected—affect our interests and futures? Feel free to post any and all views and updates here.

Cheers,
Guy

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The frozen garlic is always a great treat during big elections.
His background on Han is terrific. Should be a mandatory read.
As media state, the KMT will announce the results of July 8-14 opinion polls this Monday.
Taiwan News has piece on it today.
All kinds of random speculation, like Gou teaming up with Ko, if Han is poll winner.
I’ll wait til poll announcement before I can even dare make any prognostication.
Taiwan politics so frothy.

There is a high probability that the battle will be decided by factors that are outside Taiwan’s control . I suspect that if China flexes its muscles due to HK, or possibly Tsai visiting USA / arms sales etc, it will sway towards DPP. If things quieten down and the influencers can promote prosperity with China , it may benefit the KMT . I hope the greedy ones lose … but TIT😏

As expected, Han Guo Yu has won. Let’s see if Terry runs independently. Don’t think he will give up so quickly.

Han won 44.8% of the vote while Terry Guo only got 27.7%

I hope he does run independently. It’ll split the vote nicely.

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Lots of rumors about this flying around…hope it happens!

Hope Terry Kuo runs as an independent.

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Also hearing rumors about Kuo and Ko running on the same ticket.

Guo taking second fiddle? With that ego? Definetively with something fishy planned to happen along the way…

Just thinking having any of those/both as bosses sends shivers down my spine.

Makes one wonder though, that was once among the richest parties in the world now resorts to candidates who self finance their campaig… or get the money elsewhere.

Terry + KP would be my favourite combo. Them against Han & Cai would make the whole thing a bit less boring.

I don’t understand the hype about Han. Does actually anyone had him on the political radar before he entered the Kaohsiung mayor race ?

He seems to be almost constant represent on local TV - I do wonder how serious he actually is taking his duty to be an actual mayor of a big city.

Anyway, if Terry wants to go as an independent (making a Nader), it will likely the only possible way to ensure a 2nd term for Tsai. Her presidency is quite a dissapointment as she didn’t achieve anything big.

Most of their assets are frozen in court proceedings against the so-called ill-gotten assets something commission.

Prior to that Han was famous for only 3 things.

  1. He once punched Chen Shui-bian, which seems to be a major plus for people who deeply despise any form of Taiwanese independence.

  2. He had a terrible attendance record as a legislator.

  3. He had major support from Mayor Ko when DPP wanted to replace him as the CEO of Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Corporation.

The pro-China media and Mayor Ko made it seem like Han was an amazing CEO and DPP was trying to remove him for political purposes. Sadly that’s not the case. Han ran the company with severe nepotism, and lacked understanding of how to actually sell products. The person DPP replaced him with, Wu Yin-ning (吳音寧), is a agricultural and environmental activist. Under her administration, TAPMC was more profitable and operated in a more organized and transparent fashion.

The pro-China medias used the removal of Han to make Han seem like a victim of political oppression, and painted DPP and Wu as the villain. Ko’s support of Han really turned public opinion, as at the time Ko still had the aura of an unbiased non-politician.

The pro-China medias latched on to that, and began flooding the news with many fabricated Han stories in massive quantities. They almost made Han out to be a god like figure, with stories such as phoenix shaped clouds covering where Han was going to be. Those unsatisfied with Tsai’s reforms lapped them up.

Ko continued to voice support for Han well into the mayoral election and even after Han was elected Kaohsiung mayor. Ko said that there’s a lot more to Han than meets the eyes, and Han is way smarter than people made Han out to be.

Recently, Ko began attacking Han after Han seemed to be on track to be the next KMT presidential nominee.

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If it’s just Han running against Tsai, Tsai would win.
If it’s a 3 way race between Han, Tsai and Ko, Han would win.
If it’s a 4 way race between Han, Tsai, Ko and Kuo, then Tsai might win.

Regardless, I think Ko will definitely run, and it seems unlikely that Kuo would run as an independent, so I’m afraid we will get President Han in 2021.

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If you’re calling it for Han, I’m calling it for Tsai.

I’ll be a happy loser in that case.

That goes without saying. :sunglasses:

I hope Gou runs independent but this is already a better result. Han is a lot weaker than Gou.

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:sob:

yea a lot of people seem to be worried about this. mayor ko better keep his big nose out of it.