And there are no elitist BSR on Taiwan that promote Hoklo racism on the island.
Well said. 
Poor AC is delusional, having stayed in NY for too long… Losing touch with the local mood.
My current crumpet is a dyed in the wool PFP supporter and a Waishengren to boot. A topic we never tire of discussing is Taiwanese politics.
She has had to admit recently:
-
My explanations for what actually happened during the shooting of the president make the most sense.
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The Blue camp is up for a huge trashing Saturday.
[quote=“Mr He”]Poor AC is delusional, having stayed in NY for too long… Losing touch with the local mood.
My current crumpet is a dyed in the wool PFP supporter and a Waishengren to boot. A topic we never tire of discussing is Taiwanese politics.
She has had to admit recently:
-
My explanations for what actually happened during the shooting of the president make the most sense.
-
The Blue camp is up for a huge trashing Saturday.[/quote]
Ouch… heading for trouble!
She has to live with a BF who’s would be voting deep green if he had the right to vote.
OK, when even the core supporters consider it a lost cause… hard to believe that the blue will end up maintaining their current majority…
A no-majority Legislative Yuan is a possibility as AC suggets, but I wouldn’t say it’ll be “hung.” The independents will line up for one camp or another, especially if they can get something out of it. I think the chances are in favor now of green doing slightly better than blue, and the question is by how much.
There are about 10 seats predicted to go the independents. These will be the 10 new emperors of Taiwan.
I heard it was predicted 6 of them were green. I think this is good news for them.
Yes, greed and envy are common traits among politicians.
I want to make a prediction: There will be a lower invalid vote percentage in the legislative election than in March, causing some pan-blues to start shouting again about fraud in the presidential election.
But they’ll be wrong again.
In the presidential election, the rules (approved by the pan-blue controlled Legislature) were stricter than ever before about where people could chop their ballots and what would be considered valid. Ballots this Saturday, however, will be evaluated under the old chabuduo jiu keyi rules, not to the same standards as for the presidential election. And this time, too, there isn’t a major group calling for ballots to be spoiled.
Will this imply that when the results get in on Saturday night, and it’s clear that the Blue Bunglers have lost their control of the LY, that they will set off another round of protests, complaining that the election results were unfair.
That should be fun.
Also, the a difference would be that the blues had no power to obstruct, leaving the streets their only opportunity to vent their anger of being robbed of that they see as theirs by right.
[quote=“Mr He”]Will this imply that when the results get in on Saturday night, and it’s clear that the Blue Bunglers have lost their control of the LY, that they will set off another round of protests, complaining that the election results were unfair.[/quote]But of course. What else in a unemployed ex-legislator going to do with his/her time?
I missed the news skit, but I was told pan-blue was planning on chipping away at the president’s powers if they keep their majority… I sure hope they get flushed down history’s toilet on Saturday.
I think it’s clear the pan-blues are going to make a fuss no matter what. If they do well, Lien’s desire to push his Cabinet plan could make for a mess greater than anything that has been seen before.
If they lose, Lien has to come up with something to get people whipped up so he can try to stay in power, though not everyone in the pan-blues is likely to be of infinite patience in following a serial loser.
I think expectations of a big pan-green victory are overstated. Moreover, I think Chen has been overreaching and turning some people off. But Lien looks like he’s going to scare off even more people with his Cabinet proposal; unconstitutional power grabs just aren’t the best way to attract swing voters. :loco:
[quote=“cranky laowai”]
If they lose, Lien has to come up with something to get people whipped up so he can try to stay in power, though not everyone in the pan-blues is likely to be of infinite patience in following a serial loser. [/quote]
I would not jump to conclusions…
well, here’s another posters view on what might happen. he elaborated it while we were drinking beer looking over teh Daxi Hongxi golf course and the beautiful pines there.
OK, election time, the Blue Bunglers take a big hit and become a minority, leaving the Green to press their agenda.
Good and fine, but do you really think the KMT guys who were lucky enough to get elected will form a die hard opposition? NO WAY, NOT THEM!.
Why? Simple, to get elected costs money, and in order to recoup the investment, you will need to gain access to some feeding trays only accesible to you if you are in a positionof power, something an opposition legislator rarely is.
The ones of them with the bigger debts, are therefore likely to defect one by one to the Green camp, thus getting back on the gravy train.
The alternative would leave them with no money, no influence, and no reason to stay in politics.
Therefore he (and to some extent I) expect the DPP victory to be followed by a gradual exodus of the more opportunistic/egoistic lawmakers. Some may go to DPP, but a large part will end up in TSU.
That will leave a core of KMT/PFP guys behind, in a camp under siege, with little money, only having the aboriginal and the WSR vote. They are likely to prefer Soong and Ma to Lian Zhan, who’s likely to be a very isolated chairman, or in forced retirement.
It will be sad in a way if all this really happens. Taiwan needs an alternative to the DPP around, and this will see everything concentrated in DPP hands for at least a few years.
[quote=“Mr He”]
The ones of them (blue winners) with the bigger debts, are therefore likely to defect one by one to the Green camp, thus getting back on the gravy train.[/quote]
I do hope that DPP is selective about which of the rats from KMT’s sinking ship it chooses to accept, and the best way to prevent that is a good healthy majority in the LY that doesn’t need topping up.
[quote=“hsiadogah”]
I do hope that DPP is selective about which of the rats from KMT’s sinking ship it chooses to accept, and the best way to prevent that is a good healthy majority in the LY that doesn’t need topping up.[/quote]
Well, if the majority is thin, they will need to top it off… Perhaps TSU will take the shadier ones, who knows?
But most Ly members are corrupt, as they need to be so in order to finance their election campaigns.
I think some people are writing off the pan-blues too soon. Think back to the 2001 election.
[ul][li]Before the vote, lots of people thought the pan-blues would get wiped off the map because Chen had won the presidency the year before. Didn’t happen. [/li]
[li]Lots of people expected many pan-blue legislators to jump ship to the DPP, giving the pan-greens a majority. Didn’t happen. [/li]
[li]After the vote, lots of people thought Lien Chan would surely step down because the KMT did so poorly (again). Didn’t happen. [/li][/ul]
I agree that if this were a rerun of the March 2004 election, the blues would get stomped. But it isn’t, as much as Chen and Lien would like for it to be. It’s more complicated than that – not least of all because of Taiwan’s insane districting laws.
The gov’t has also set up an English-language website for the current election. But it doesn’t have an updated FAQ – or any FAQ at all.
[quote=“cranky laowai”]I think some people are writing off the pan-blues too soon. Think back to the 2001 election.
[ul][li]Before the vote, lots of people thought the pan-blues would get wiped off the map because Chen had won the presidency the year before. Didn’t happen. [/li]
[li]Lots of people expected many pan-blue legislators to jump ship to the DPP, giving the pan-greens a majority. Didn’t happen. [/li]
[li]After the vote, lots of people thought Lien Chan would surely step down because the KMT did so poorly (again). Didn’t happen. [/li][/ul]
I agree that if this were a rerun of the March 2004 election, the blues would get stomped. But it isn’t, as much as Chen and Lien would like for it to be. It’s more complicated than that – not least of all because of Taiwan’s insane districting laws.[/quote]
[ul][li]I don’t think anyone had any evidence that it would be a huge green victory. As you pointed out, the legislative elections are very different from the presidential ones, so a post-election 60% pro-Chen rating didn’t mean 60% of legislative seats for Green.[/li]
[li]True, people expected some jumps, and they did got at least one (Chiu Teh-hung is the only one I remember). They have consistantly gotten some near elections-- the KMT expelled 11 members before the 2001 election for example. Considering there are organized, anti-Lian policy blocks like the 567 alliance, and taking into account that Soong is basically saying the pro-localization and LTH sympathetic block in the KMT has to go before Pan-Blue can be unified, one can easily see how these various factors, as well as the obvious advantages available to one if you are a member of the party in power, would lure over a few more defectors at least.
But I agree-- people shouldn’t be expecting too huge a landslide here. But I think Green will still somehow come up with the edge.
[/li]
[li]True, but there may be some reasonable strategy in Lian staying on. Perhaps it was decided the KMT had little chance, even if they changed their chairman, of having an improved showing in the legislative election. As a result, perhaps Ma and Wang were hesitant to take any leadership role for fear of beign booted out right after December. So it actually makes sense to keep the old loser around for a few months, given the legal protest of the election and upcoming legislative losses. He can step down in January or Feb., after the merger and after the court has finished its rulings.[/li][/ul]
If Ma takes over the KMT, he is guaranteed the support of the Taiwanese women. Even CSB wife thinks Mayor Ma is a cutey.