Legislative Elections 2004 -- predictions?

Also, the blue legislators who might wish to jump ship in 2001 didn’t do so, and well… why should they?

First of all KMT/PFP still had a majority, so tey got to share out a lot of committe chairmanships, and other goodies to the faithful. That incentive did a fair bit to keep the blue lawmakers in the fold.

Secondly, the election of Chen was seen as a fluke, IE it was only possible due to the 3-way presidential race in 2000. This has now changed, with Chen winning a total majority of the popular vote in the 2004 presidential election.

Therefore, if it ends up with the blue boyz losing the LY by a wafer thin margin of LY members actually elected. (IE greens 113 blues and independents 112), then the DPP will most likely be offered the services of this or that KMT LY member in exchange for a few juicy bones in a subcommittee somewhere. That should top op a green majority a little bit.

Mr He,

30,000 vote is a not a majority, it is a city block of people in Taiwan. CSB presidency is still being challenged as we post our post in ROC legal system.

Actually given the way CSB has behaved as head of DDP and ROC in recent days, I really think he needs a reality check.

USA warns him not to promote changing the names, and he respond with “trust me” in the news media, while running his flap about some 5 crisis if pan-Green don’t win the majority.

In 2006 or 2008 when PRC attacks and USA decides not to send troops. Will CSB be mouthing off “trust me.”

[quote=“ac_dropout”]Mr He,

30,000 vote is a not a majority, it is a city block of people in Taiwan. CSB presidency is still being challenged as we post our post in ROC legal system.[/quote]

Actually, I believe Mr. He was referring to over 50%. Yes, AC, that IS a majority. And those who are still challenging it are digging their political graves even further to do it.

Is Lien or Soong running for a LY seat?

They should. After all, coming 2nd or 3rd in these elections mean that you actually get elected :laughing: :laughing:

I wouldn’t mind seeing them running again at 2008. Everyone deserves a second chance.

[quote=“steve101”]
I wouldn’t mind seeing them running again at 2008. Everyone deserves a second chance.[/quote]…and a third, and a fourth… :wink:

No, neither.

Taipei County seen holding decisive status in election
Pan-green camp needs to win 16 seats to secure legislative majority
etaiwannews.com/Taiwan/Polit … 558025.htm

Predictions from Blue and Greens:
tw.news.yahoo.com/041210/19/18pul.html

KMT predicts Blues have 109 so far, DPP says Greens have at least 110.

Edit: And I predict the DPP’s own polls will be among the most accurate, if not the most accurate.

Can someone explain to me who are the Pinks? In Tainan, there are several candidates flying the Pink banner.

Are there any international observers for this election? I think it’s pretty common practice in elections in other countries (I think the US election even had some) - but I haven’t heard anything about observers here.

Presumably there were none for the presidential election - we’d have heard quite a bit from them if there were. But given all the bitching by the Blues, it would make sense to ask for some independent oversight …

Maybe the fabric store had a special…

[quote=“david”]Are there any international observers for this election? I think it’s pretty common practice in elections in other countries (I think the US election even had some) - but I haven’t heard anything about observers here.

Presumably there were none for the presidential election - we’d have heard quite a bit from them if there were. But given all the bitching by the Blues, it would make sense to ask for some independent oversight …[/quote]
There are many observers already here with more flying in all the time, same as for the presidential election. There are so many that there are special press calls specifically for their benefit. Our offices are overrun with them right now. :fume:

[quote=“mod lang”]Can someone explain to me who are the Pinks? In Tainan, there are several candidates flying the Pink banner.[/quote]\I would guess some independent candidate(s)?

ettoday.com/2004/12/10/301-1725537.htm

Final poll predictions by parties:

KMT says 108 for blue + independents; enough for a slim majority.
DPP says 95-101 for itself and about 25 for TSU.

Edit: Also, a good candidate list and map here:
tw.news.yahoo.com/2004vote/profiles/index.html

Edit 2: Results start coming in at 4:00 pm Taipei time, and hopefully everytihng will be coutnd by 9:00.

@ YongHe 9am, ballot #13 :stuck_out_tongue:

OK, time to take comments over to this forum’s Election Results thread.