Let's talk about Trump


#1

How many of you are really bored with Taiwanese election? With all the possible tricks in the bag used and the ones that are not in the bag predictable, there is really not much to say other than watching the candidates run out the clock.

What’s interesting is Trump. To the surprise of the pundits he’s leading the Republican poll. Hillary’s email scandal seems to be brewing like a craft beer from Portland — you really can’t tell what’s going to turn out.

Does anybody have a clue how a possible Trump in the Whitehouse will affect Taiwan?


Trump tells Chinese president US will honor 'one China' policy
#2

My view is that Trump would be a mediocre-to-bad president, though not a trainwreck because Congress would keep him largely in check. The guy is popular right now because he says what people want to hear for better or worse (usually worse), and so it wouldn’t be surprising if he were a populist president who did what the loudest voters wanted. This would be bad on a lot of issues (immigration, trade) but when public opinion turned against him, he’d probably swing in the other direction, too. He’s not actually a Republican, just a very loud, angry man with lots of resources.

As for Taiwan, I think he’d be a big supporter. He clearly has it in for China and would probably relish anything that would “hurt their feelings.” Plus he doesn’t have the patience for the waiting game that Washington, Taipei, and Beijing have been playing for over half a century. Don’t get your hopes up too high, though – if he bent to big business interests, he would definitely ratchet down the anti-China rhetoric. And even if he didn’t, Taiwan is so far down the list of priorities for most American administrations that even if he wanted to do something radical in support of Taiwan he probably would never get to it. There is a whole Middle East to go to war with first.


#3

Trump is only popular with certain (primary voting) segments of the Republican Party. If he gets to the general election he will be toast. A couple of months ago I heard over 60% of polled Americans (general voting public) have a negative view of him.


#4

if Trump becomes the Republican presidential candidate, what are his chances against the current likely Democratic candidate?

Personally, I think Clinton’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination is maybe 70%.

Speaking of presidential elections, I saw something “interesting” a couple of months ago. My next door neighbor is a black family. (husband, wife, two young kids and a dog) Very nice and friend family. However, our chit-chats have always been about very mundane things. Politics never came up. They moved two months ago. After the moving company put everything on truck, they stayed another couple of days to clear out junk from the house. The next day happened to be trash day, so they just piled all the junk at the curb. Next to the trash can was a framed photo of Barack Obama. It startled me because I never saw a presidential photo placed at the curb next to a pile of junk. I wasn’t sure what to make of it. Were they Obama supporters who lost faith in him? Or did they get a much bigger photo and ditched the old one? Or… will… I guess you guys can draw your own conclusion. :frowning:


#5

If you’d taken a photo of the scene… give it a bit quick photo filtering, post it and go viral.


#6

[quote=“Hokwongwei”]My view is that Trump would be a mediocre-to-bad president…

As for Taiwan, I think he’d be a big supporter…[/quote]

Based on recent interview answers, he would be a terrible-to-disastrous president… and that’s basically because of his simplistic views. He’s simply not qualified for the job. Would be like giving a 6-year old the keys to your Ferrari. Not sure he knows much about Taiwan at all.


#7

Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but if Trump is elected, there will be hell toupee.


#8

If W. Bush was any indication, the candidate with the toughest stance on China usually becomes China’s lap dog after the election.


#9

:slight_smile: I hadn’t heard that one before, where’s the up vote button when you need one.

It seems most people are astounded by the support Trump is receiving, not without reason I grant you. However, for those who want to look at it from the point of view of a Trump supporter. I don't think anyone has done a better job than those over at The Conservative Tree House. Lots of links at the bottom.[url=http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/08/22/tripwire-alert-evidence-now-exists-to-show-benefit-of-gope-road-mapped-splitter-strategy/]“Tripwire Alert” – Evidence Now Exists To Show Benefit Of GOPe Road-mapped “Splitter Strategy”….[/url]

#10

Totally wrong reasoning. An observation that ignores time as a factor in everything.

US deliberately building up China was one long-term national strategy carefully crafted. It was supported by a combination of sympathy, naiveté, benefit of the doubt, general faith in humanity, etc. That was the thought back then, and it could continue, but there is no rule that says the same thought continues indefinitely, because people change their mind all the time.

Had nothing to do with candidates.


#11

Totally wrong reasoning. An observation that ignores time as a factor in everything.

US deliberately building up China was one long-term national strategy carefully crafted. It was supported by a combination of sympathy, naiveté, benefit of the doubt, general faith in humanity, etc. That was the thought back then, and it could continue, but there is no rule that says the same thought continues indefinitely, because people change their mind all the time.

Had nothing to do with candidates.[/quote]

My observation is that candidates who wish to get voters who wish the US to take a harder stance towards its potential military rival would pretend to take up a harder stance on China prior to the elections.

From this article:
cnbc.com/2015/08/26/republic … china.html

Although you’d hear the two parties go at China from different angles.


#12

I don’t believe Trump can win in a general election, and I think it’s fairly plausible that the GOP higher-ups would cheat him out of the nomination if it came to that (even if it guaranteed a third-party run that would hand the White House to the Democrat anyway). But to address the point at hand, I suspect Trump doesn’t give a shit about Taiwan and has no intention of dramatically altering the relationship. Trump seems incapable of viewing foreign alliances as anything but a negotiation game that the U.S. “loses” if it doesn’t get some obvious reciprocal benefit from the other side. So he’s hinted that he’s willing to blow up the alliance with Japan not over the usual objection (that Japan doesn’t contribute enough to its own defense) but because, get this, Japan won’t commit itself to America’s defense, as though such a commitment makes sense or would actually mean anything. That there might be a less obvious benefit involved in having a permanent military presence a few hundred miles from China is apparently irrelevant or too subtle for Trump. Given that Taiwan has less to offer the U.S. than Japan by almost any conceivable metric, what use does it have in the Trumpian view of international negotiation, except perhaps as a bargaining chip?

If anything, I think Trump is almost cavalier about the potential threat China poses to Taiwan and the region as a whole. Japan is, after the U.S., probably the single biggest brake on China’s ambitions in Asia, but Trump seems to see it as an adversary on the same level as China itself, as though his views on East Asia were informed by old Michael Crichton and Tom Clancy novels. That’s because Trump views China as a purely economic threat, talking endlessly about currency manipulation and trade imbalances and the stock market collapse (“Markets are crashing - all caused by poor planning and allowing China and Asia to dictate the agenda”) while staying deafeningly silent on security-related matters like Taiwan and the South China Sea, or even hacking attacks on U.S. targets attributed to China. I’m half-convinced Trump would be willing to hand Taiwan over to China if they just let the yuan float.


#13

I know… I thought about it. But by the time I came home, the trash truck had already gone through my neighborhood.

I suppose it’s not unlike the people who voted for Ma in Taiwan, but now feel nothing but anger towards him? :smiley:


#14

[quote=“hansioux”]

If W. Bush was any indication, the candidate with the toughest stance on China usually becomes China’s lap dog after the election.[/quote]

I’ll bet a lot of comedian were crying their hearts out when Bush left office.

Well… at least Sarah Palin came along for a few months to provide them with new material. :roflmao:

People’s exhibit #1001:


#15

Let’s talk about Trump, baby
Let’s talk about you and me
Let’s talk about all the good things
and the bad things that may be
Let’s talk about Trump
Let’s talk about Trump
Let’s talk about Trump
Let’s talk about Trump

(from a very VERY dark chapter in music…Salt-N-Pepa)

Sorry…it’s Friday and I’m a little stir crazy from all the rain


#16

There’s something a little sad about how many Taiwanese look to the US government to solve their problems. Kind of like Uncle Sam is their family partriarch.

There’s also something sad about Americans looking to the US government to solve their problems, but that’s another subject.


#17

[quote=“BlownWideOpen”]Let’s talk about Trump, baby…
(from a very VERY dark chapter in music…Salt-N-Pepa)
Sorry…it’s Friday and I’m a little stir crazy from all the rain[/quote]
I prefer “Money money money Mah-nee, whoo, whoo,
Money money money Mah-nee”


#18

The Donald will be interviewed by Hockey Mom today? Can’t wait to see that. :popcorn:


#19

I support Trump only because no developed country should have birthright citizenship today. Really left-oriented countries like Sweden don’t even have it.


#20

Why shouldn’t they, and why should non-developed countries? I strongly disagree personally but I’d like to hear your case.