Good point. In the same forty-three year period the national debt has gone from $500 billion to $19 trillion and the dollar is now worth 20 cents. It’s hard to see how Trump could do any worse.
Good point. In the same forty-three year period the national debt has gone from $500 billion to $19 trillion and the dollar is now worth 20 cents. It’s hard to see how Trump could do any worse.[/quote]
There’s quite a bit in there for a short comment…
If Trump sat on his hands and did nothing Paris Hilton style he’d be worth 15+ billion. He decided to work, so he’s now worth 3.5. Is it really that hard to see how things could get worse? A man who virtually everything he touches loses value or goes bankrupt can’t make America worse? The better question is, how could he not make America worse?
Lastly, the dollar losing value argument is so old by now. Why do people keep repeating something they know to be false? Of course the nominal value of the dollar has gone down, it’s called inflation. But aren’t you forgetting something rather important? There’s also something called interest rates.
- If you put a dollar under your mattress 100 years ago it would be worth almost nothing today.
- If you put the same dollar in 1 month t-bills for 100 years it would be worth more than a dollar today.
Minimum guaranteed interest has outpaced inflation in the last 100 years, so no of course the US dollar hasn’t lost purchasing power. And that’s based off the minimum interest rate available. Obviously if you put that dollar in even the lowest interest government guaranteed bonds it would be worth several times what it was. And we haven’t even factored in wage growth which FYI has outpaced inflation by over 200% in the last 100 years.
The average wage in the US in 1900 was like 300$. Yes that’s 3 0 0, three hundred dollars a year. Given wages are up about 7000% and the average interest rate in the time since is nearly 5%, should we be surprised the dollar lost nominal value? All we car about is REAL value, and in that sense the purchasing power is way higher today. With all due respect to Ron Paul, but he’s just wrong. The dollar didn’t lose value. The US dollar is still king.
Good point. In the same forty-three year period the national debt has gone from $500 billion to $19 trillion and the dollar is now worth 20 cents. It’s hard to see how Trump could do any worse.[/quote]
The average yearly wage in 1973 was $7,580; now it’s $46,000, which means that compared with inflation workers have made a slight gain. If a dollar will buy 20% of what it would then, but you have six of them now, that means you can actually buy more things.
Of course, if income was distributed the same way as it was in 1973 the average wage would be about $80,000. The top 1% (or more precisely, 0.1%) has sucked up all the gains since then.
As you can see the debt came down drastically after WWII, held steady during the stagflation of the Ford/Carter years, soared under Reagan and Bush I, was brought down by Clinton, skyrocketed under Bush II, and has held steady under Obama.
It needs to be brought down in the future - not a big deal right now as long as interest rates are low, but it’s definitely too high and shoud be brought down slowly.
(Also the trade-off that brought the deficit down so quickly was bad policy; letting the deficit stay higher would have grown the economy more quickly, bringing the debt down long-term; though, hey, you’re dealing with willfully ignorant austerians; Obama did the best he could- well, almost).
Given that every Republican candidate has plans to blow out both the deficit and the debt, just like the last two times they were in power, as long as America avoids the stupidity of putting a Republican president in things will be alright.
Tax Policy Center
There’s no real winner in the bunch. I am thinking it’s going to be Trump VS Clinton. Don’t like Clinton to gain from political office anymore, but I don’t think Trump will be a good Prez.
Speaking of Hillary, what’s she been up to in the last couple of years?
Seems like a lot of people were interested in what she had to say- she must be a fascinating speaker
[quote] DATE EVENT LOCATION FEE
March 19, 2015 American Camping Association Atlantic City, NJ $260,000.00
March 11, 2015 eBay Inc. San Jose, CA $315,000.00
February 24, 2015 Watermark Silicon Valley Conference for Women Santa Clara, CA $225,500.00
January 22, 2015 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Whistler, Canada $150,000.00
January 21, 2015 tinePublic Inc. Winnipeg, Canada $262,000.00
January 21, 2015 tinePublic Inc. Saskatoon, Canada $262,500.00
December 4, 2014 Massachusetts Conference for Women Boston, MA $205,500.00
October 14, 2014 Salesforce.com San Francisco, CA $225,500.00
October 14, 2014 Qualcomm Incorporated San Diego, CA $335,000.00
October 13, 2014 Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers Colorado Springs, CO $225,500.00
October 8, 2014 Advanced Medical Technology Association (AdvaMed) Chicago, IL $265,000.00
October 7, 2014 Deutsche Bank AG New York, NY $280,000.00
October 6, 2014 Canada 2020 Ottawa, Canada $215,500.00
October 2, 2014 Commercial Real Estate Women Network Miami Beach, FL $225,500.00
September 15, 2014 Cardiovascular Research Foundation Washington, DC $275,000.00
September 4, 2014 Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd, LLP San Diego, CA $225,500.00
August 28, 2014 Nexenta System, Inc. San Francisco, CA $300,000.00
August 28, 2014 Cisco Las Vegas, NV $325,000.00
July 29, 2014 Corning, Inc. Corning, NY $225,500.00
July 26, 2014 Ameriprise Boston, MA $225,500.00
July 22, 2014 Knewton, Inc. San Francisco, CA $225,500.00
June 26, 2014 GTCR Chicago, IL $280,000.00
June 25, 2014 Biotechnology Industry Organization San Diego, CA $335,000.00
June 25, 2014 Innovation Arts and Entertainment San Francisco, CA $150,000.00
June 20, 2014 Innovation Arts and Entertainment Austin, TX $150,000.00
June 18, 2014 tinePublic Inc. Toronto, Canada $150,000.00
June 18, 2014 tinePublic Inc. Edmonton, Canada $100,000.00
June 10, 2014 United Fresh Produce Association Chicago, IL $225,000.00
June 2, 2014 International Deli-Dairy-Bakery Association Denver, CO $225,500.00
June 2, 2014 Let’s Talk Entertainment Denver, CO $265,000.00
May 6, 2014 National Council for Behavorial Healthcare Washington, DC $225,500.00
April 11, 2014 California Medical Association (via Satellite) San Diego, CA $100,000.00
April 10, 2014 Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc. Las Vegas, NV $225,500.00
April 10, 2014 Let’s Talk Entertainment San Jose, CA $265,000.00
April 8, 2014 Marketo, Inc. San Francisco, CA $225,500.00
April 8, 2014 World Affairs Council Portland, OR $250,500.00
March 24, 2014 Academic Partnerships Dallas, TX $225,500.00
March 18, 2014 Xerox Corporation New York, NY $225,000.00
March 18, 2014 Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montreal, Canada $275,000.00
March 13, 2014 Pharmaceutical Care Management Association Orlando, FL $225,500.00
March 13, 2014 Drug Chemical and Associated Technologies New York, NY $250,000.00
March 6, 2014 tinePublic Inc. Calgary, Canada $225,500.00
March 5, 2014 The Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, Canada $275,500.00
March 4, 2014 Association of Corporate Counsel – Southern California Los Angeles, CA $225,500.00
February 27, 2014 A&E Television Networks New York, NY $280,000.00
February 26, 2014 Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society Orlando, FL $225,500.00
February 17, 2014 Novo Nordisk A/S Mexico City, Mexico $125,000.00
February 6, 2014 Salesforce.com Las Vegas, NV $225,500.00
January 27, 2014 National Automobile Dealers Association New Orleans, LA $325,500.00
January 27, 2014 Premier Health Alliance Miami, FL $225,500.00
January 6, 2014 GE Boca Raton, FL $225,500.00
November 21, 2013 U.S. Green Building Council Philadelphia, PA $225,000.00
November 18, 2013 CME Group Naples, FL $225,000.00
November 18, 2013 Press Ganey Orlando, FL $225,000.00
November 14, 2013 CB Richard Ellis, Inc. New York, NY $250,000.00
November 13, 2013 Mediacorp Canada, Inc. Toronto, Canada $225,000.00
November 9, 2013 National Association of Realtors San Francisco, CA $225,000.00
November 7, 2013 Golden Tree Asset Management New York, NY $275,000.00
November 6, 2013 Beaumont Health System Troy, MI $305,000.00
November 4, 2013 Mase Productions, Inc. Orlando, FL $225,000.00
November 4, 2013 London Drugs, Ltd. Mississauga, ON $225,000.00
October 29, 2013 The Goldman Sachs Group Tuscon, AZ $225,000.00
October 28, 2013 Jewish United Fund/Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago $400,000.00
October 27, 2013 Beth El Synagogue Minneapolis, MN $225,000.00
October 24, 2013 Accenture New York, NY $225,000.00
October 24, 2013 The Goldman Sachs Group New York, NY $225,000.00
October 23, 2013 SAP Global Marketing, Inc. New York, NY $225,000.00
October 15, 2013 National Association of Convenience Stores Atlanta, GA $265,000.00
October 4, 2013 Long Island Association Long Island, NY $225,000.00
September 19, 2013 American Society of Travel Agents, Inc. Miami, FL $225,000.00
September 18, 2013 American Society for Clinical Pathology Chicago, IL $225,000.00
August 12, 2013 National Association of Chain Drug Stores Las Vegas, NV $225,000.00
August 7, 2013 Global Business Travel Association San Diego, CA $225,000.00
July 11, 2013 UBS Wealth Management New York, NY $225,000.00
June 24, 2013 American Jewish University University City, CA $225,000.00
June 24, 2013 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Company, LP Palos Verdes, CA $225,000.00
June 20, 2013 Boston Consulting Group, Inc. Boston, MA $225,000.00
June 20, 2013 Let’s Talk Entertainment, Inc. Toronto, Canada $250,000.00
June 17, 2013 Economic Club of Grand Rapids Grand Rapids, MI $225,000.00
June 16, 2013 Society for Human Resource Management Chicago, IL $285,000.00
June 6, 2013 Spencer Stuart New York, NY $225,000.00
June 4, 2013 The Goldman Sachs Group Palmetto Bluffs, SC $225,000.00
May 29, 2013 Sanford C. Bernstein and Co., LLC New York, NY $225,000.00
May 21, 2013 Verizon Communications, Inc. Washington, DC $225,000.00
May 16, 2013 Itau BBA USA Securities New York, NY $225,000.00
May 14, 2013 Apollo Management Holdings, LP New York, NY $225,000.00
May 8, 2013 Gap, Inc. San Francisco, CA $225,000.00
April 30, 2013 Fidelity Investments Naples, FL $225,000.00
April 24, 2013 Deutsche Bank Washington, DC $225,000.00
April 24, 2013 National Multi Housing Council Dallas, TX $225,000.00
April 18, 2013 Morgan Stanley Washington, DC $225,000.00
Source[/quote]
Bolded are for two speeches on the same day, though that could just be for billing purposes, as she’s listed as giving a speech in Florida and one in Ontario on the same day.
$262,000 for a speech in Saskatoon?
Thats what I don’t like about her. ABJECT GREED. Now if the money is there for the taking as it was, sure. But haven’t heard anything about anything philanthropic she is doing with her dough, have you?
“Soared” under Reagan and Bush I? but “held steady” under Obama? I think that you had better redefine your terms or learn to read a graph! Incredible!
“Soared” under Reagan and Bush I? but “held steady” under Obama? I think that you had better redefine your terms or learn to read a graph! Incredible![/quote]
Reagan/Bush I +85% (27% of GDP up to 50%)
Clinton - 32% (50% down to 34%)
Bush II +34% ( 34% up to 58.7%)
Obama +12%(58.7 up to 66%)
*though of course all of the gain under Obama is due to him cleaning up the mess left by Dubya- the stimulus and the collapse in tax revenues caused by the Bush Crash.
But yeah, I should have said “skyrocketed under Reagan, climbed slightly under Bush I, and soared under Bush II.”
(Standard practise of attributing first year to outgoing President, as I’m sure you’re aware the incoming President’s budget doesn’t get passed by Congress until September of the inaugural year, and takes longer to have an effect.)
And I wish Obama could have spent more; bringing the deficit left by Bush II down 75% in the middle of the Great Recession was bad policy.
Here’s a handy little tool to help you out with the math.
percentagecalculator.net/
You may wish to revisit your very own posted chart and look specifically at the year 2009 if you want to understand how to define the word “soared.” Not only economically illiterate but apparently just plain illiterate as well? Dear dear me… Time to revisit the discussion of falling standards at our public school systems. Exhibit A.
By 2009 the debt had increased 34% under Bush II. As I pointed out, Obama’s budget kicked in September 2009; the effects of the Bush Crash continued through to 2010, at which point the Obama economic policy staunched the bleeding (You may wish to edit this to read “Courageous Republicans led by Mitch McConnell staunched the perilous stimulus instituted by Obama”, but the numbers remain the same)
In fairness to Bush, the debt had only increased by 12% (same as Obama’s total) from 2000 to the Great Recession of 2008; the vast majority of his increase was due to that, as it caused the deficit to spike to 12.3% (before it was brought down to 3.1% under Obama)- but then of course by the same standard all of Obama’s increase in the debt was caused by the same cause, which he inherited from Bush.
Those are just the numbers, plain to see. I don’t agree with what Obama did; he should have let the debt keep rising and he shouldn’t have brought the deficit down so rapidly- and of course some of that was caused by the sequester; the great majority simply by the economy gradually recovering. But it is what it is.
yes but then the but then we would but yes no maybe
There is no but and maybe, that is exactly what happened. To track the numbers after Obama’s first budget and compare them to where it is today is staggeringly simple math. It’s honestly the difference between two numbers. 
I know I’m grateful to President Obama and his policies for driving up the price of gold and keeping the cost of gasoline down. Whatever it is he’s been doing is economic genius and I’m counting on him to keep it up. Because of him I’m going to be able to take an impromptu vacation to Vegas with a side trip to see the Grand Canyon. Never been there.
Now this is just sad.[quote]
Chelsea and Ivanka put their friendship on ice
When Chelsea Clinton and Ivanka Trump were introduced by their husbands a few years ago, they clicked immediately — the two famous daughters swanned around Manhattan together for a time, posing on the red carpet at events like the Glamour Women of the Year Awards where they laughed and embraced for the cameras.
They seemed to genuinely delight in each other’s presence and had much common ground. Last year, Chelsea even compared Ivanka’s natural charm to her own father’s while praising her in the glossy pages of Vogue.
But with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump now on track for a King Kong versus Godzilla political collision in November, that friendship has been put temporarily on hold — both women, sources close to them said, have chosen to no longer be seen together in public during the election. Given the personal nastiness and vitriol of the campaign already, it may be difficult for the relationship to recover.
[/quote]
Jan 2001 - Bush takes office. Price of gold: 278
Jan 2009 - Obama takes office. Price of gold: 858
Price of gold today: 1271
Gold price rise under Bush: 209%
Gold price rise under Obama: 48%
Jan 2001 - Bush takes office. Price of gold: 278
Jan 2009 - Obama takes office. Price of gold: 858
Price of gold today: 1271
Gold price rise under Bush: 209%
Gold price rise under Obama: 48%[/quote]
Gold is for optimists. I’m investing in canned goods.
Bush II is a pretty low bar in every way, I think, and while President Obama’s current $1,265 an ounce doesn’t beat Bush’s $860 an ounce you’ve got to remmber three things. One, thanks to Bush, this isn’t a normal recovery. Two, President Obama still holds the all-time record of $1,900 an ounce set back in 2011 and, three, there’s still nine months left to go in his administration. With any luck and perhaps a foray into negative interest rate policy like everyone else seems to be doing these days I’m optimistic we can double down on Bush’s $860 an ounce in the next nine months and maybe even a little more. Now that’s the kind of recovery you can take to the bank – or, better yet, on vacation since the banks might be charging us interest just to keep money on deposit before this is all over.
Bubbles are nothing to measure history off, they’re just irrational exuberance. Gold going to 1900 was no less insane than the Chinese stock market going from 2000 to 5000. Obviously both of them predictably crashed in spectacular fashion. I told all the gold bugs on this forum back then it was going to crash back down to 1250. I was wrong, it went all the way to 1045…
But since I don’t invest in gold I’m cheering for it’s price rise for ya. Hopefully you can do well with it. You know me, I only invest in things I can quantify. I only invest when I have a mathematical advantage and the risk reward is heavily in my favor. Gold doesn’t do any of that, but it is shiny so that’s something I guess. 
For anyone who, on a personal level, has found this “recovery” as elusive as weapons of mass destruction gold has been a welcome relief, the only asset class which is actually up so far this year. It’s fitting that it’s funding my pilgrimage to Vegas and the Grand Canyon where I plan to raise a glass of champagne to both in celebration of the genius of Obamanomics.
5 year returns of Stocks (SPX in blue) Bonds (TLT in green) and Gold (GLD in red)
- Bear in mind we have to add dividends which will add another 10% that isn’t shown in the chart. Gold doesn’t pay dividends, and if you have enough it can be negative compound interest in the form of storage fees and insurance.
I don’t invest in stocks, bonds, or gold, but it’s not that hard to see which ones have been performing well and which haven’t. In the absence of a crystal ball, I’d say at the very least gold has a long way to go before it becomes a close race again. A tad early for champaign in my humble opinion 
and just for fun:
Thanks Obama for the increased volatility environment