Lets talk Donald and Hilary

[quote=“Winston Smith”]Is that the same omniscient data that alerted everyone to the fact that the worst recession since the Great Depression was about to hit?

I like data too but when I talk to people who are contractors now with no benefits because the job they lost in the Great Recession never came back, or former professionals who are working two or three low wage jobs now to make ends meet, or people who have just given up ever finding a job again and no longer count in anybody’s data, or people living on savings earning zero interest then I’m reminded that sometimes blind faith in data can make people “stupid” too.[/quote]

I can’t dispute your personal experiences because they are yours, but what I can suggest is you try to place more emphasis on a much more meaningful analysis of real data as opposed to a few random anecdotal stories from a tiny amount of individuals. If people are using anecdotal stories told by pissed off people to gauge the economy, then yes it makes perfect sense why people are delusional and repeating the same tired things over and over again despite them being completely untrue.

At some point personal responsibility has to come into play. If you know contractors that were laid off in 2009 and haven’t found work yet, considering the job market is stronger than it’s been in years, might I suggest they try to upgrade their own skill set instead of blame Obama? If you know professionals who were doing great in 09 and now work 2-3 low paying jobs to make ends meet, I’m not trying to be mean but clearly that’s on them. I don’t know a single doctor, lawyer, accountant or engineer who now works 3 jobs at Quiznos to pay the bills. Sorry, I just don’t think that is as widespread as you are implying. There may be a few, but with the unemployment rate for college graduates in the low 2’s, this just isn’t something I spend much time worrying about.

If a business owner is struggling in the US now, given the environment is radically improved, I would also suggest a little personal responsibility that it’s not a God given right to succeed at business. Sometimes you actually need meaningful and impactful products or services as well as an efficient and well managed business. With those, yes the vast majority of business owners are far better off today than they were 8 years ago. Anybody who isn’t, well, maybe they aren’t cut out for business. And of course, anybody who thinks America is falling like the Roman Empire, there’s nothing stopping them from leaving. Go ahead, move to Europe or Japan or Russia or China or start a business in Taiwan. The economies are so much better there right? :loco:

But it’s just so much easier to blame the economy or Obama or the Fed, so to each his own.

I’m curious, BrentGolf, why you say I blame America’s mile wide and inch deep recovery on Obama or the Fed.

Hundreds of comments, in dozens of different threads, for a couple years…

Hundreds of comments, in dozens of different threads, for a couple years…[/quote]

That’s what I thought, a reading comprehension issue. Just for the record I blame Congress and demographics for America’s long term economic decline. Obama, for better or for worse, can’t even get confirmation hearings for his Supreme Court nominee, much less get his economic agenda enacted (see “gridlock”). As for the Fed, its “quantitative easing” and ZIRP policies were necessary acts of desperation to keep America’s (congressionally) mismanaged economy from falling off the cliff. My only beef, and it wasn’t with the Fed because Ben Bernanke was always forthright about where QE’s 4 trillion dollars came from, was with those Fedophiles who insisted for ideological reasons that quantitative easing was business as usual rather than uncharted territory.

A) They’re both reality-based ( like the numbers on the drop in the uninsured rate)
B) They clash with your ideological beliefs so you prefer to pretend they’re not real.

Just a guess.

Brentgolf, I will agree with you that, largely thanks to Obama, the US is doing better than almost anywhere else- but “better than the next guy” doesn’t necessarily mean “good” - especially for the bottom 80%

[quote] Household incomes remained essentially flat in 2013—far below their pre-recession levels—and the share of the national economic pie that goes to the middle class continued to stagnate close to record lows. At the same time, those at the very top claimed the majority of the income growth seen since the recession’s end.

The clearest indicator of the continuing struggles of the middle class has been the failure of the national median income to rebound to pre-recession levels and its overall decline over the past 14 years. In 2013, the typical middle-class household earned an income of $51,939, which was a statistically insignificant $181* above their inflation-adjusted 2012 income level but still nearly $4,500 below what they earned before the start of the Great Recession in 2007
[/quote]

From those wild-eyed folks at the Center for American Progress.
americanprogress.org/issues … dle-class/

As well. a whole 'nuther load of charts that show the economy is finally getting back on track, but won’t recover to it’s predicted pre-recession track for another couple of years (barring another slowdown).
cbpp.org/research/economy/ch … -recession

Plus while the four-year college-educated have done okay, it’s been less good for those further down the ladder.

[quote]Meanwhile, many middle-wage occupations, those with average earnings between $32,000 and $53,000, have collapsed. Jobs in the middle include traditionally blue-collar occupations such as truck drivers, welders and auto mechanics. There are 900,000 fewer workers in these occupations than there were before the recession, the report finds.

“It used to be recessions were pauses and people went back to the same job distribution, but that’s not true anymore,” said Anthony Carnevale, an economist at Georgetown and the report’s lead author. “A lot of the jobs in the rearview mirror aren’t coming back.”

The report provides evidence that the middle of the U.S. labor market is hollowing out. Good jobs are primarily available to college graduates—of the 2.9 million higher-wage jobs added since 2010, the authors estimate that 2.8 million went to workers with at least a bachelor’s degree.[/quote]
wsj.com/articles/post-recess … 1439854409

Guess who’s voting for Trump?

USA has become a corporatocracy. No one is benefiting from the government and politicians except for the corporations that pay for their campaigns.

Everyone is getting squeezed, both employee and employer. Bernie is pushing for a minimum wage of 15$, and maybe he is right a Burger King breakfast for two cost me 15$ yesterday, can you imagine paying 250NT$ for a crappy Burger King breakfast? Don’t bother looking it up, even you find the prices you will fail to include the sales tax or something and maybe the fact I had a large coffee instead of a regular. It is what it is.

But whats the going rate worldwide, that would put USA to the top with perhaps one exception. Then there are the details, employers here pay federal taxes on top of an employers wage, they pay health care on top and not like just about every other country have NHS payments taken out from the wages, the additional costs are perhaps 30 to 40% on top of what a person earns, it’s going to cripple small businesses.

But enough of the employers woes, an employee might have an average water bill of 200 to 300 US$ a month, thought about how you would feel paying 10,000NT$ a month for your water? How much do parents need to save for a university education for their kids? Obama might tout his healthcare bill, but in reality emergency care has always been available for everyone, anyone who turns up in an emergency room is bound by law to been seen, except the government or hospital used to be on the hook for the bill if the person couldn’t pay, all he’s done is shift the expense of the uninsured to the middle class, and even then due to deductibles they will pay thousands before their insurance kicks in, he didn’t actually reduce the costs of health care. It’s still about double that of anywhere else in the world as a % of GDP and given what their GDP is, in real terms that is only worse.

The politicians stand up in front of the people they are supposed to represent and sell them down the river every time, trade deals that do reduce the price of goods, but make it impossible for companies in the States to compete with Vietnam and China mass producing with cheap labor and no employee benefits. The one person in this presidential bid that is familiar with hiring, with providing jobs, who wants to focus on building businesses and creating a competitive environment you mock for only having made x number of billion dollars, unlike the bankers who invest so successfully in stock markets and never crash the economy passing the bill to the average person.

yes vote for Bernie, who’s sole accomplishments in life is flapping his lips. Or vote Hillary, she will be sure to keep arming her friends in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE and other Sunni led countries while at the same time fighting ISIS and Al Qaeda, oh she is so smart on foreign policy! Remind me once more, whose brilliant idea was it to arm the Libyan rebels? It’s not like the Libyan rebels might actually have Al-Qaeda elements, and those elements might have ties to Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and the advanced weaponry supplied might end up shooting down your own helicopters in Afghanistan, because the “rebels” will do just what Hillary wants.

It actually means exactly that. I don’t know why so many people have such a hard time with this. Everything in this world is relative. The only reason you think 1 million dollars is a lot of money is because 1$ isn’t. If everybody in the world had a billion dollars in the bank, 1 million wouldn’t be much money anymore would it?

The only reason you know that 4.9% unemployment is a low number is because we compare to all the ones higher. The only reason we know the US economy is in great shape is because it’s better then every other economy on the planet. Only relatively matters. I’ve said it a million times and I’ll say it again. The US today compared to itself of the past looks worse. The US today compared to every other contemporary competitor is the best in the world.

Do race car drivers care if their car is faster than a 1955 model? No, they only care if it’s faster then the other 2016 models they are racing against.

Now obviously this doesn’t mean the US shouldn’t strive to do better. Of course it’s very unequal and I’ve talked at great length about that. You’re posting charts addressing me which is weird because I’ve posted more charts and data points on inequality than anybody else on this forum. Yes Mike, I’m well aware, and you know I’m well aware… Doesn’t change the fact that the US is the strongest and best economy in the world though, which is all I’ve ever said. I’ve never once claimed that it’s equal, or just, or a great place to live. There is so much that could be done to make it better, obviously.

@ Winston. I don’t think i’d be exaggerating if I said you’ve expressed disgust and contempt for Obama and the Fed and quantitative easing over a thousand times on this forum. And now you make a single comment that you support it and you have no issue with Obama or the Fed? That is a more shocking turn around than if Fred Smith suddenly stated that climate change is real. I don’t know what to think now. :astonished:

I’ve never in my life heard anybody say that. I’m pretty sure everybody breathing knows that Fed policy in the last 8 years is well outside the realm of normal.

[quote]If a business owner is struggling in the US now, given the environment is radically improved, I would also suggest a little personal responsibility that it’s not a God given right to succeed at business. Sometimes you actually need meaningful and impactful products or services as well as an efficient and well managed business.['quote]

And sometimes that doesn’t help when the environment around you has dramatically worsened. When the business has gone, the local market has dried up, and you’re out of it, having sold off your equipment to get you through the down years, you don’t just snap your fingers and hey, you’re back where you were.

Sure they are- what all those stats show is that they’re not better off than they were 9 years ago.

It actually means exactly that. I don’t know why so many people have such a hard time with this. Everything in this world is relative. The only reason you think 1 million dollars is a lot of money is because 1$ isn’t. If everybody in the world had a billion dollars in the bank, 1 million wouldn’t be much money anymore would it? [/quote]

And if I had a million dollars, and now I have one dollar, I’d think I don’t have much now- wheteher or not the guy next to me only has 50 cents. Or if I make $10 dollars an hour and my neighbor makes $100, and we both keep doing the same jobs except now he’s making $1,000 an hour and I’m making $8, I wouldn’t be thinking things are great.

Except comparing your situation to other people in other countries isn’t what people do. When the Great Recession hit, my niece in England lost her steady job and had to go to part-time temping, and move back in with my mother for awhile. I guess she shoud have said, “well those people in Greecce have it worse”, but amazingly, she didn’t. When my cousin-in-law’s family in Greece lost their business because the economy collapsed, they didn’t say “Hey’ at least we don’t have Ebola like those people in Guinea.”

Strangely, people do compare their present to their past; they also compare themselves to the people in their own environment- which these days include people they can see on TV and the Internet- you know, the rich folks who are doing well.

As for the unemployment rate, yes it’s low- but so is the workforce participation rate. About half of the decline is due to the continuation of pre-recession rates of agng, while a third to half is due to lingering effects of the recession is due to the effects of the recession. The labor market isn’t as tight as it looks from the unemployment rate; otherwise wages would have been going up- and they haven’t. Or actually, they’ve only just started to creep up, an the increased interest rates you advocate would send them down again.

[quote=“MikeN”]Except comparing your situation to other people in other countries isn’t what people do. When the Great Recession hit, my niece in England lost her steady job and had to go to part-time temping, and move back in with my mother for awhile. I guess she shoud have said, “well those people in Greecce have it worse”, but amazingly, she didn’t. When my cousin-in-law’s family in Greece lost their business because the economy collapsed, they didn’t say “Hey’ at least we don’t have Ebola like those people in Guinea.”

Strangely, people do compare their present to their past; they also compare themselves to the people in their own environment- which these days include people they can see on TV and the Internet- you know, the rich folks who are doing well.

As for the unemployment rate, yes it’s low- but so is the workforce participation rate. About half of the decline is due to the continuation of pre-recession rates of agng, while a third to half is due to lingering effects of the recession is due to the effects of the recession. The labor market isn’t as tight as it looks from the unemployment rate; otherwise wages would have been going up- and they haven’t. Or actually, they’ve only just started to creep up, an the increased interest rates you advocate would send them down again.[/quote]

You know I was talking about 2016 as you quoted me saying today. Yes in the heart of the recession the employment situation was terrible, who said otherwise? Certainly not me. The US was shedding over 700,000 jobs a month at that time, of course things were miserable. And in the rest of the world it was even worse. Again, who said otherwise?

Again we live in a relative world. If almost everybody else is unemployed, the person who works at McDonald’s is a high roller. So yes in my opinion your niece should have said people in other countries had it worse. That doesn’t mean she doesn’t feel down about her situation, but yes the exact right attitude is to understand that other people in other countries have it much worse, to roll up her sleeves and get back to work in the best manner she can. And you know what, I bet she did EXACTLY that. Which is why today she’s probably better off than she was in 2008, as is almost everybody in the economy.

Nearly everybody is better off now than they were in 2008, yet you will still hear people say ad nauseam that they aren’t. From an economy shedding 700,000 jobs to one smashing job growth records left and right. Yeah, it’s really hard to figure this one out. :loco: It’s down right comical at this point. There is a mountain of data that shows that people are better off in every way today than they were then, yet people repeat the same tired nonsense they see on the news. Stories like Winstons of people who were doing so great in 2007 and now work 3 minimum wage jobs to make ends meet. Please… If that’s the case, look inward. It ain’t the economy that makes people in 2016 work 3 minimum wage jobs.

As far as the labour force participation rate, it’s structural more than anything else. There is very little aside from a massive fiscal stimulus plan that would remedy the dropping rates, and of course half the country votes for leaders who have no political will to implement such a program. It’s the same reason for the widespread inequality. Yes it’s terrible, but what can you do when you get half the country voting for leaders that literally want to promote more inequality?

Unless a person supports Bernie Sanders, don’t talk to me about income inequality in the US. American’s had their chance to truly have a leader who would do whatever he could to remedy the massive inequality, and they let the opportunity slip away. They will vote Trump or Clinton and guess what? Inequality will get worse. Screw it, people will get what they vote for. I’m tired of arguing about a problem that the people themselves don’t want any part in fixing.

This is from William Blum (a Leftie) who has written great books like Killing Hope: U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II and Rogue State: A Guide to the World’s Only Superpower, among others.

williamblum.org/aer/read/144

[quote]American exceptionalism presents an election made in hell

If the American presidential election winds up with Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump, and my passport is confiscated, and I’m somehow FORCED to choose one or the other, or I’m PAID to do so, paid well … I would vote for Trump.

My main concern is foreign policy. American foreign policy is the greatest threat to world peace, prosperity, and the environment. And when it comes to foreign policy, Hillary Clinton is an unholy disaster. From Iraq and Syria to Libya and Honduras the world is a much worse place because of her; so much so that I’d call her a war criminal who should be prosecuted. And not much better can be expected on domestic issues from this woman who was paid $675,000 by Goldman Sachs – one of the most reactionary, anti-social corporations in this sad world – for four speeches and even more than that in political donations in recent years. Add to that Hillary’s willingness to serve for six years on the board of Walmart while her husband was governor of Arkansas. Can we expect to change corporate behavior by taking their money?

The Los Angeles Times ran an editorial the day after the multiple primary elections of March 1 which began: “Donald Trump is not fit to be president of the United States,” and then declared: “The reality is that Trump has no experience whatsoever in government.”

When I need to have my car fixed I look for a mechanic with experience with my type of auto. When I have a medical problem I prefer a doctor who specializes in the part of my body that’s ill. But when it comes to politicians, experience means nothing. The only thing that counts is the person’s ideology. Who would you sooner vote for, a person with 30 years in Congress who doesn’t share your political and social views at all, is even hostile to them, or someone who has never held public office before but is an ideological comrade on every important issue? Clinton’s 12 years in high government positions carries no weight with me.

The Times continued about Trump: “He has shamefully little knowledge of the issues facing the country and the world.”

Again, knowledge is trumped (no pun intended) by ideology. As Secretary of State (January 2009-February 2013), with great access to knowledge, Clinton played a key role in the 2011 destruction of Libya’s modern and secular welfare state, sending it crashing in utter chaos into a failed state, leading to the widespread dispersal throughout North African and Middle East hotspots of the gigantic arsenal of weaponry that Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi had accumulated. Libya is now a haven for terrorists, from al Qaeda to ISIS, whereas Gaddafi had been a leading foe of terrorists.

What good did Secretary of State Clinton’s knowledge do? It was enough for her to know that Gaddafi’s Libya, for several reasons, would never be a properly obedient client state of Washington. Thus it was that the United States, along with NATO, bombed the people of Libya almost daily for more than six months, giving as an excuse that Gaddafi was about to invade Benghazi, the Libyan center of his opponents, and so the United States was thus saving the people of that city from a massacre. The American people and the American media of course swallowed this story, though no convincing evidence of the alleged impending massacre has ever been presented. (The nearest thing to an official US government account of the matter – a Congressional Research Service report on events in Libya for the period – makes no mention at all of the threatened massacre.)

The Western intervention in Libya was one that the New York Times said Clinton had “championed”, convincing Obama in “what was arguably her moment of greatest influence as secretary of state.” All the knowledge she was privy to did not keep her from this disastrous mistake in Libya. And the same can be said about her support of placing regime change in Syria ahead of supporting the Syrian government in its struggle against ISIS and other terrorist groups. Even more disastrous was the 2003 US invasion of Iraq which she as a senator supported. Both policies were of course clear violations of international law and the UN Charter.

Another foreign-policy “success” of Mrs. Clinton, which her swooning followers will ignore, the few that even know about it, is the coup ousting the moderately progressive Manuel Zelaya of Honduras in June, 2009. A tale told many times in Latin America. The downtrodden masses finally put into power a leader committed to reversing the status quo, determined to try to put an end to up to two centuries of oppression … and before long the military overthrows the democratically-elected government, while the United States – if not the mastermind behind the coup – does nothing to prevent it or to punish the coup regime, as only the United States can punish; meanwhile Washington officials pretend to be very upset over this “affront to democracy”. (See Mark Weisbrot’s “Top Ten Ways You Can Tell Which Side The United States Government is On With Regard to the Military Coup in Honduras”.)

In her 2014 memoir, “Hard Choices”, Clinton reveals just how unconcerned she was about restoring Zelaya to his rightful office: “In the subsequent days [after the coup] I spoke with my counterparts around the hemisphere … We strategized on a plan to restore order in Honduras and ensure that free and fair elections could be held quickly and legitimately, which would render the question of Zelaya moot.”

The question of Zelaya was anything but moot. Latin American leaders, the United Nations General Assembly, and other international bodies vehemently demanded his immediate return to office. Washington, however, quickly resumed normal diplomatic relations with the new right-wing police state, and Honduras has since become a major impetus for the child migrants currently pouring into the United States.

The headline from Time magazine’s report on Honduras at the close of that year (December 3, 2009) summed it up as follows: “Obama’s Latin America Policy Looks Like Bush’s”.

And Hillary Clinton looks like a conservative. And has for many years; going back to at least the 1980s, while the wife of the Arkansas governor, when she strongly supported the death-squad torturers known as the Contras, who were the empire’s proxy army in Nicaragua.

Then, during the 2007 presidential primary, America’s venerable conservative magazine, William Buckley’s National Review, ran an editorial by Bruce Bartlett. Bartlett was a policy adviser to President Ronald Reagan, a treasury official under President George H.W. Bush, and a fellow at two of the leading conservative think-tanks, the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute – You get the picture? Bartlett tells his readers that it’s almost certain that the Democrats will win the White House in 2008. So what to do? Support the most conservative Democrat. He writes: “To right-wingers willing to look beneath what probably sounds to them like the same identical views of the Democratic candidates, it is pretty clear that Hillary Clinton is the most conservative.”

During the same primary we also heard from America’s leading magazine for the corporate wealthy, Fortune, with a cover featuring a picture of Mrs. Clinton and the headline: “Business Loves Hillary”.

And what do we have in 2016? Fully 116 members of the Republican Party’s national security community, many of them veterans of Bush administrations, have signed an open letter threatening that, if Trump is nominated, they will all desert, and some will defect – to Hillary Clinton! “Hillary is the lesser evil, by a large margin,” says Eliot Cohen of the Bush II State Department. Cohen helped line up neocons to sign the “Dump-Trump” manifesto. Another signer, foreign-policy ultra-conservative author Robert Kagan, declared: “The only choice will be to vote for Hillary Clinton.”

The only choice? What’s wrong with Bernie Sanders or Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate? … Oh, I see, not conservative enough.

And Mr. Trump? Much more a critic of US foreign policy than Hillary or Bernie. He speaks of Russia and Vladimir Putin as positive forces and allies, and would be much less likely to go to war against Moscow than Clinton would. He declares that he would be “evenhanded” when it comes to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (as opposed to Clinton’s boundless support of Israel). He’s opposed to calling Senator John McCain a “hero”, because he was captured. (What other politician would dare say a thing like that?)

He calls Iraq “a complete disaster”, condemning not only George W. Bush but the neocons who surrounded him. “They lied. They said there were weapons of mass destruction and there were none. And they knew there were none. There were no weapons of mass destruction.” He even questions the idea that “Bush kept us safe”, and adds that “Whether you like Saddam or not, he used to kill terrorists.”

Yes, he’s personally obnoxious. I’d have a very hard time being his friend. Who cares?[/quote]