Looks like Russia is going to Invade Ukraine

Politics International Politics
#1

theglobeandmail.com/news/wor … e17185557/

“Saturday’s unanimous vote formalized what Ukrainian officials described as an ongoing deployment of Russian troops in the strategic region of Crimea. It also raised the possibility that Moscow could send its military elsewhere in Ukraine.”

Obama said that there “will be consequences” if Russia invades Ukraine but I wonder if anything will be done militarily. Obama draws a line in the sand and everyone always crosses it, as much as giving him the finger.

I guess China will be watching too, as how invading Taiwan would play out.

My guess is the US does nothing.

#2

Crimea is historically not part of the Ukraine. Not really Russian, either.
Has anybody asked the Crimeans what they want?

#3

[quote=“TheGingerMan”]Crimea is historically not part of the Ukraine. Not really Russian, either.
Has anybody asked the Crimeans what they want?[/quote]

A referendum would make more sense, but neither side wants logic to get in the way of bitter hate.

#4

The Crimean Tartars want to join the EU with Ukraine, and to have nought to do with Russia. But now the Crimea is full of die-hard Russian separatists who got there when it was part of the Soviet Union, so the Tartars voice would be drowned out in a referendum.

#5

Ah, yes.
The Tartar. I know some of them, and they despise both Ukraine and Russia.
Though, one must consider the Rus claim for a fine Black Sea port. Ukraine? Not sure what they can claim, at all.

#6

For whatever it’s worth (and it’s probably worth nothing), I’m actually 25% Ukrainian. But I admit I know very little about the place, and my grandmother who is from there never talked about “the old country.” So I’ve got no ethnic moral authority to claim expertise on this issue. That said…

I don’t blame the Ukrainians for deposing corrupt Russia-stooge President Viktor F Yanukovych. But they’d be fools to bring back corrupt oligarch and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko who wants to sell the country to the EU and IMF.

The logical thing to do would be for the Ukraine to NOT join the EU, nor sign the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and they shouldn’t even consider joining NATO - but to simply be a neutral nation enjoying good relations with all its neighbors.

Unfortunately, neither the EU/USA or Russia are willing to leave the Ukrainians alone and allow them to run their own country. So the Great Game continues, with the unfortunate weaker countries being the meat in the sandwich. Ukraine as the next Afghanistan, it could happen.

#7

[quote=“Dog’s_Breakfast”]For whatever it’s worth (and it’s probably worth nothing), I’m actually 25% Ukrainian. But I admit I know very little about the place, and my grandmother who is from there never talked about “the old country.” So I’ve got no ethnic moral authority to claim expertise on this issue. That said…

I don’t blame the Ukrainians for deposing corrupt Russia-stooge President Viktor F Yanukovych. But they’d be fools to bring back corrupt oligarch and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko who wants to sell the country to the EU and IMF.

The logical thing to do would be for the Ukraine to NOT join the EU, nor sign the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and they shouldn’t even consider joining NATO - but to simply be a neutral nation enjoying good relations with all its neighbors.

Unfortunately, neither the EU/USA or Russia are willing to leave the Ukrainians alone and allow them to run their own country. So the Great Game continues, with the unfortunate weaker countries being the meat in the sandwich. Ukraine as the next Afghanistan, it could happen.[/quote]
:notworthy:
Damn straight!

#8

[quote=“Dog’s_Breakfast”]For whatever it’s worth (and it’s probably worth nothing), I’m actually 25% Ukrainian.
[/quote]

We’re all Ukrainians now. John McCain said so. So that means we’re all Ukrainians AND Georgians- hope those two don’t get into a war.

#9

Other than Crimea, what is likely to happen with the other Russophone regions of eastern Ukraine?

#10

Depends on Putin’s goals. Does he merely want to secure the Black Sea navy’s bases, or does he want to grab as much land as possible? Only time can tell.

#11

[quote=“TheGingerMan”]Crimea is historically not part of the Ukraine. Not really Russian, either.
Has anybody asked the Crimeans what they want?[/quote]

Isn’t Crimea predominantly ethnic Russian? Kind of a Russian Sudetenland. Peoples have the right to self determination, right? Or something.

Identity politics is a wonderful thing. Any time you need an excuse for violence, identity politics comes through for you.

#12

[quote=“rowland”]
Identity politics is a wonderful thing. Any time you need an excuse for violence, identity politics comes through for you.[/quote]

A referendum with a bunch of international observers would be the best way to defuse the tension.

I somehow do not think Putin will agree to that, as there are several areas of Russia, where Russians are in the minority, and if they want the right to vote on secession extended to them, it would be no end of trouble for him.

I see Putin taking the choicest parts of Ukraine, the rest becoming closer to the EU, a shit load of sanctions up to the point where Russia does not turn off the gas flow to West Europe, and then after a few years we will all forget the whole thing.

If this really turned nasty, do not forget that the EU is very dependent on Putin for heating our homes, that’s leverage for you there, and Putin will play fast and hard if needed.

#13

[quote=“Dog’s_Breakfast”]
The logical thing to do would be for the Ukraine to NOT join the EU, nor sign the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and they shouldn’t even consider joining NATO - but to simply be a neutral nation enjoying good relations with all its neighbors.

Unfortunately, neither the EU/USA or Russia are willing to leave the Ukrainians alone and allow them to run their own country. So the Great Game continues, with the unfortunate weaker countries being the meat in the sandwich. Ukraine as the next Afghanistan, it could happen.[/quote]

I’m skeptical about this. What’s the mechanism by which the EU/USA are not allowing the Ukranians to run their own country? There seems to be significant desire in the Ukraine for closer European integration–government steps against it were the direct cause of the current round of popular protests. Should the EU/USA accede to or even promote the Finlandization of Ukraine against the popular will?

#14

Saying the people of an area is predominantly ethnic xxx as an excuse to invade another nation is so 1938… why are people supporting this?

#15

I hope you are not gunning at me, complete withdrawal followed by a referendum would be the best solution, however not what will happen.

When it comes to the West and wnat we can do, then I find it summed up well here:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_ … deliveries

That is Putin’s leverage, however if used, he will shoot himself in the foot long term. Poland is developing shale gas, and the rest will get started in short order of he uses a possible gas weapon.

#16

Hypothetically, if Russia wasn’t involved here, what would the EU / UK / US say when Ukraine go and put their military under the control of a neo-Nazi?

#17

very little I suppose. EU would probably just block their petition to entry, which would push them closer to the Russians.

#18

Edit: White-Russia is nowadays called Belarus in English, sorry

Does anybody else get the impression Putin is like a child testing its limits? I mean: he kind of invaded Georgia in Eurasia for a while and nobody really cared.
Was kind of Bush’s fault I thought, because he wanted to move NATO too close to the Russian border.
Now Putin invades parts of Ukraine, has historic excuses (all invaders have them) and all Europe does is to say “… bad bad Putin… and we need his gas for the winter”. And all Washington will do are diplomatic sanctions, minor ones most likely.

So what’s next?

What about this: Putin gets White-Russia to attack the Baltic States, so he gets his whole-year-ice-free-harbors back. NATO prepares for war, but then Putin lets rebels take out the White-Russian president and goes into peace talks with NATO. For sure, the status of the Baltic harbors is to be negotiated! And nobody wants to start WW3 over it…

#19

I hope you are not gunning at me, complete withdrawal followed by a referendum would be the best solution, however not what will happen.
[/quote]

Nope, that’s an open statement. Just wondering out loud why anything wouldn’t see through the old trick. If things went Putin’s way, they get the entire place back. If not, they will just stay in Crimea and proclaim it was always their intension to just “protect ethnic Russians in Crimea”.

#20

I hope you are not gunning at me, complete withdrawal followed by a referendum would be the best solution, however not what will happen.
[/quote]

Nope, that’s an open statement. Just wondering out loud why anything wouldn’t see through the old trick. If things went Putin’s way, they get the entire place back. If not, they will just stay in Crimea and proclaim it was always their intension to just “protect ethnic Russians in Crimea”.[/quote]

The elephant in the room is cold Germans.