The world seems to be embracing anti-establishment candidates. I find the latest election in the Philippines to be very concerning.
Thereās a smallish thread about this on the other place.
The Filipinos embrace Duterte because heās quintessentially Filipino. He breaks every single one of the ten commandments and then heads off to confession. Lifeās like that in Asiaās Most Christian Country. I feel sorry for them in a way; after all, they havenāt had a functioning government in living memory, so they have no idea what a government is or what a President does. Most people there think the Presidentās job is somewhere between Santa Claus and Batman.
Whether heāll manage to clean up that benighted hellhole is anybodyās guess. 100,000 wonāt do it. Heād better aim for 5 million. Or if even his soiled conscience recoils at that, heād better come up with an actual plan for fixing the root causes of Philippine dysfunction. You know, like a proper head of state.
Trump is kind of like that, saying all sorts of stupid things to get elected. Kicking out 11 million Mexicans, no visa for Muslims, etc. All equally radical. And yet Trump could well be the next Prez.
So can this guy.
We are going into an age now where the strongman/ dictator is making a comeback. Russia has one already.
A lot of people draw that comparison, but Duterte is nothing like Trump. Trump is not evil; heās just full of shit. I doubt he would ever actually go through with that ākick out all the Mexicansā nonsense. Itās nasty to listen to, but Iām fairly sure heās (still) just winding people up. What he doesnāt realise, I think, is that when people are encouraged to start thinking base thoughts, they find it easier to carry out base actions.
Putin is a complete asshole, but heās at least 50x smarter than Duterte. Heās fascinating to listen to. Wouldnāt want him as my president, but you can see why heās managed to hold onto power for so long.
Duterte is a whole different ball game. Heās on record saying heās killed people (or rather, had them killed). He shot some kid at university. Heās threatening to kill all the criminals (which, realistically, would be a third of the population). Now Filipinos are always shooting each other - itās the standard way of resolving arguments - but you donāt really want someone with that kind of limited problem-solving repertoire in Government. People like that think that if killing a few people doesnāt work, they havenāt killed enough people.
The nuance is this: the Philippines is an enormous slum, full of people who have never known anything except cheating, violence, and scrounging to survive. Hordes of children everywhere with no parents to raise them, because the Catholic Church says that spawning miserable, uneducated, hungry children who will become prostitutes and drug-dealers pleases god, while wearing a condom is a mortal sin. To which one can only ask: āwhich god?ā. There is no education system worth the name, few people have any practical skills, thus the majority are unemployable. Congress contains the biggest collection of criminals outside of a state prison; some of them are actually convicted criminals (and that in a country with no functioning judiciary). Weāre talking about crimes like treason, murder, conspiracy, and plunder of state property, not fiddling an expenses claim. How on earth do you solve that? China, in a similar situation, executed quite a number of corrupt officials. If you know the punishment is execution and you carry on being corrupt, itās your own silly fault; but that sort of scenario illustrates how bad it can get. The trouble with killing people is: how do you know when to stop? Itās better to start with the assumption that the option isnāt even on the table.
I donāt think Putin, Trump, or this Filipino are genuinely anti-establishment. They are just playing the tough guy role to appeal to an angry electorate. There tends to be a 5-10 year cycle between a smooth-talking demagogue (Clinton/Obama) and a take-no-prisoners posturing hard man (Trump/Putin). The types are different enough for people to embrace the changeā¦ 18-24 months of honeymoon/euphoria from the voters, then back to apathy/resentment. The new Indian and Indonesian presidents have just finished their honeymoon period. No real difference in either of those countries over the last few years.
True change will never come from the political arena, IMO. Innovative financial technology and innovation is the only way out of here.
HHC, I completely agree; however, because the Philippines is a failed state where violence is accepted and normal, escalation would be easy. It depends how full of himself Duterte actually is, how much of his campaigning is just bluster, and how many people co-operate with his āpoliciesā.
As for innovation and grassroots change, this is impossible. The Law and the state apparatus are designed so that no such thing can ever occur. Opening anything more socially useful than a corner store meets with as much official backlash as Uber faced in New York.
I find it a bit weird that since South China Sea dispute is a big deal in the Philippines, I thought they would have election a president with a tougher stance on China. Instead, they elected Duterte, who doesnāt seem to mind to sell out national interests to China.
Sure Duterte said things like āIāll ride a jet ski to plant our flag on the islands myselfā in early stages of the election, much like Trumpās āIāll make the Mexicans pay for the wallā, but his newest stance is āI wonāt claim those islands belong to the Philippines if you donāt claim those islands belong to Chinaā, essentially Ma Yingjeouās ādiplomatic truceā and we all know how that went.
Between Duterte and Trump, the next decade is looking pretty ugly.
Iām sure it could get worse, no doubt. I just donāt think heāll make any positive changes. I think heās with the establishment. I have seen how suffocating local red tape can be in Indonesia. Itās deliberately designed to stifle innovation, and stop anyone getting on the business ladder. Even making a corner shop will rub someone up the wrong way, as you said. I donāt dispute how hard it is, but the existence of sites like these:
thesparkproject.com/
startsomegood.com/csllfi
startsomegood.com/outsmart-pove ā¦ -libraries
ā¦shows me that someone is doing something, even if it only affects 0.00001 percent of the population. I donāt think it is impossible, just extremely difficult, and a change will take 50-100 years. At least these new finance platforms exist. They didnāt even exist 10 years ago. So that is a small step in the right direction. Applying those changes locally will probably be very difficult, but at least there is a way forward nowā¦
Anyway, the point is, I realized that all changes in the last 10-15 years came from private industry. I would prefer to put my energy into doing something in technology than watching these buffoons make empty promises. But I agree they need to be watched, in case they do anything worse.
Hereās the rub. Itās NOT a big deal to the average Filipino. In fact, they couldnāt care less about those specks of shit in the SSC. They have no idea what those shoals and reefs represent, nor can they comprehend what it will mean when China starts playing hall monitor in the region. Thatās why they brushed off Dutuerteās stance (or lack thereof). My wife, for instance, agrees with his āfuck it, let them have itā policy. She, and 99% of Filipinos donāt care about anything that isnāt presently knocking at the door.
One of my good friends in Manila said to me, ā[Electing Dutuerte] is a deal with the devil, and everybody in the Philippines has account at Satanās bank.ā
The worst thing to happen to the Philippines was their emancipation from U.S. Commonwealth status to full independence in 1946. Itās been nothing but bullshit ever since.
[quote=āHenHaoChiā]Iām sure it could get worse, no doubt. I just donāt think heāll make any positive changes. I think heās with the establishment. I have seen how suffocating local red tape can be in Indonesia. Itās deliberately designed to stifle innovation, and stop anyone getting on the business ladder. Even making a corner shop will rub someone up the wrong way, as you said. I donāt dispute how hard it is, but the existence of sites like these:
thesparkproject.com/
startsomegood.com/csllfi
startsomegood.com/outsmart-pove ā¦ -libraries
ā¦shows me that someone is doing something, even if it only affects 0.00001 percent of the population. I donāt think it is impossible, just extremely difficult, and a change will take 50-100 years. At least these new finance platforms exist. They didnāt even exist 10 years ago. So that is a small step in the right direction. Applying those changes locally will probably be very difficult, but at least there is a way forward nowā¦
Anyway, the point is, I realized that all changes in the last 10-15 years came from private industry. I would prefer to put my energy into doing something in technology than watching these buffoons make empty promises. But I agree they need to be watched, in case they do anything worse.[/quote]
I disagree with you to an extent. Letās use the Indonesia and Philippine examples. Both countries have incredibly screwed up (very different but still screwed up) politics and bureaucracy and it will be difficult for any president to significantly alter the course. I see Joko as a fine guy that will at least attempt at pushing things in the right direction. I canāt see how things donāt become significantly worse in the Philippines with Dutuerte running things. His previous actions (death squads) and possible future actions (bypassing congress) are very scary actions for a country with so many problems. I think the best we could hope for was more of the same for the Philippines and this is a step very much in the wrong direction.
For Digong to make any sort of grand, sweeping changes, heās going to need to survive long enough to make them. There is a very real possibility that he gets taken out, and soon. You donāt fuck around with the Aquinos, Cojuangcos, Sys, Bautistas, etc. I donāt care who you are, the Filipino regard for human life ends at conception. Thereās a litany of powerful people he only has to piss off once, and heās done. In order to live to see 2017, Dutuerte has to be very careful that he doesnāt start cutting off heads, cuz heāll be next. That means, heās going to play ball with the power players. At the same time, just because he won the presidency doesnāt mean people like Trillianes are going to stop coming after him.
People voted for Digong because heās seen as the antithesis of fat cats like Enrile, Estrada, Binay, etc. They falsely believe that he is going to walk in to the palace and start cleaning house. He wonāt. He canāt. Heāll make petty, useless gestures like ābanning loud karaokeā, which, good fucking luck enforcing that. If you look at the enormity of corruption and dysfunction in the country, as Finley once again so eloquently described, it would take 10,000 Dutuertes just to start the clean up. At least. If you see the institutionalization of corruption as somehow impossible, think again. Nobody is above that shit.
Meanwhile, the trash will continue to pile up. The squatters will continue to squat. Those fuckers on the other side of the wall are going to continue singing Katy Perry songs until midnight at jet decibel volumes.
For Digong to make any sort of grand, sweeping changes, heās going to need to survive long enough to make them. There is a very real possibility that he gets taken out, and soon. You donāt fuck around with the Aquinos, Cojuangcos, Sys, Bautistas, etc. I donāt care who you are, the Filipino regard for human life ends at conception. Thereās a litany of powerful people he only has to piss off once, and heās done. In order to live to see 2017, Dutuerte has to be very careful that he doesnāt start cutting off heads, cuz heāll be next. That means, heās going to play ball with the power players. At the same time, just because he won the presidency doesnāt mean people like Trillianes are going to stop coming after him.
People voted for Digong because heās seen as the antithesis of fat cats like Enrile, Estrada, Binay, etc. They falsely believe that he is going to walk in to the palace and start cleaning house. He wonāt. He canāt. Heāll make petty, useless gestures like ābanning loud karaokeā, which, good fucking luck enforcing that. If you look at the enormity of corruption and dysfunction in the country, as Finley once again so eloquently described, it would take 10,000 Dutuertes just to start the clean up. At least. If you see the institutionalization of corruption as somehow impossible, think again. Nobody is above that shit.
Meanwhile, the trash will continue to pile up. The squatters will continue to squat. Those fuckers on the other side of the wall are going to continue singing Katy Perry songs until midnight at jet decibel volumes.[/quote]
Through a system with a blown left tweeter.
For Digong to make any sort of grand, sweeping changes, heās going to need to survive long enough to make them. There is a very real possibility that he gets taken out, and soon. You donāt fuck around with the Aquinos, Cojuangcos, Sys, Bautistas, etc. I donāt care who you are, the Filipino regard for human life ends at conception. Thereās a litany of powerful people he only has to piss off once, and heās done. In order to live to see 2017, Dutuerte has to be very careful that he doesnāt start cutting off heads, cuz heāll be next. That means, heās going to play ball with the power players. At the same time, just because he won the presidency doesnāt mean people like Trillianes are going to stop coming after him.
People voted for Digong because heās seen as the antithesis of fat cats like Enrile, Estrada, Binay, etc. They falsely believe that he is going to walk in to the palace and start cleaning house. He wonāt. He canāt. Heāll make petty, useless gestures like ābanning loud karaokeā, which, good fucking luck enforcing that. If you look at the enormity of corruption and dysfunction in the country, as Finley once again so eloquently described, it would take 10,000 Dutuertes just to start the clean up. At least. If you see the institutionalization of corruption as somehow impossible, think again. Nobody is above that shit.
Meanwhile, the trash will continue to pile up. The squatters will continue to squat. Those fuckers on the other side of the wall are going to continue singing Katy Perry songs until midnight at jet decibel volumes.[/quote]
I donāt expect him to clean things up. I mentioned something about things going very much in the wrong direction. If they assassinate him then things get even more screwed up for the Philippines.
Indeed. The Lord of the Flies is very much in charge, and they like it that way.
Frankly, I donāt think They will bother to assassinate him because (a) at 70, the grim reaper will carry him off soon enough and (b) he knows which side his bread is buttered. Although heās viewed as an outsider by the great unwashed, heās very much part of the machinery (as was his father before him). You donāt get anywhere in politics if youāre not. I fully expect some trivial clampdowns, pour encourager les autres, and possibly some persecution of scapegoats, but the basic scenery will remain the same.
Eh bienā¦ regarde qui parle francais!
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The local bourse seems to be responding well.
Indeed. The Lord of the Flies is very much in charge, and they like it that way.
Frankly, I donāt think They will bother to assassinate him because (a) at 70, the grim reaper will carry him off soon enough and (b) he knows which side his bread is buttered. Although heās viewed as an outsider by the great unwashed, heās very much part of the machinery (as was his father before him). You donāt get anywhere in politics if youāre not. I fully expect some trivial clampdowns, pour encourager les autres, and possibly some persecution of scapegoats, but the basic scenery will remain the same.[/quote]
Iām a hard-boiled cynic but maybe thereās a cult of personality thing happening with this guy that reminds me
a tiny little bit
of Ninoy, and not in a good way, but wouldnāt it be convenient to make a martyr of him at some stage of the charade?
Yes, youāre right and Iām pushing the envelope of potential. Itās a helter skelter of Why Bother? and Why Not? Lots of cats have nothing to lose. However, Manila isnāt Davao. Unless heās planning on running the show from down south, it would be foolish for him to ride around town on his scooter like a big boss. At the same time, the cops and military can be positioned like Call of Duty characters. Now heās gotta worry about those cats, and who is paying who? I dunno. It was just something I heard from a fairly informed and generally reliable local (of pure Spanish decent). He said it was something to think about, and certainly, he was trying to ameliorate some of my anxiety. It was later echoed by people in my family, not that they have any idea what theyāre talking about.
I happened to be home a couple of weeks ago when he made the rape comment, refused to back down from it, and all that nonsense, during which time I never heard a voice of outrage. Even my wife was like, āOh, he was just joking.ā I said, āThere are few things in life you canāt joke about, but the rape and murder of a human being is absolutely one of them. Itās number one with a fucking bullet.ā Not only that, but think of the kind of guy who actually has that train of thought. Thereās no doubt in my mind that Dutuerte thought he should have āgone first.ā And I swear to God, I thought I was going to lose my motherfucking mind. I still do. I mean, Iām numb, so Iām not really sure whatās happening up there.
I noticed, and predicted it about a week ago, in private, to my wife, so it doesnāt count.
Ah ā¦ I never thought of that. He seems like the sort who might even play along, if the time was right, and if he thought his clan would benefit in some way.
Yeah, that bit didnāt surprise me much. After all, this is a country where animals are killed for amusement value, and a bolo or a gun is a valid negotiating tool. My observation is that many Filipinos (painting with a very broad brush here) have a limited range of emotional responses and a malfunctioning theory of mind. Itās not so much that life is cheap in the Philippines; I get the disturbing impression they donāt see life (other than their own) as life. They donāt grok the concept of other living beings. I try not to dwell on that too much.