North Korean Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1 Launch

Politics International Politics
, , ,
21

Well, no. Kinda makes sense though. I would imagine Iran is light-years ahead of NK in terms of educational attainment in aerospace and technology generally, has better access to certain bits and pieces, and has more money.

IMO China is a bit player in keeping NK on the chessboard - yes, they probably benefit to a very minor degree from slave labour and suchlike, but I have a hunch that NK’s existence is far more useful to Western nations, who can roll out the NK threat at appropriate moments to justify various self-serving policies. Iran (and other countries) may be benefiting in direct and/or clandestine ways.

The Kim dynasty’s stupid little game could be taken out overnight with a collaboration between (say) China, India, and SK; the UN could authorize such an intervention, and the installation of a caretaker government, on humanitarian grounds. The fact that it hasn’t happened suggests that that outcome is undesirable for multiple players. I don’t think China alone has enough clout to stop it happening.

Iran does have some sort of space programme, I believe, although they are constrained by international accords (which, for some reason, do not apply to NK).

1 Like
22

See, this is exactly what happens when all internet forums keep censoring @stoa1984 teachings: readers fall into the total darkness of ignorance.

Back to the OP topic, it is certainly financed by Iran, and obviously outsourced to North Korea. Research is common but the launches take place in North Korea, with Pyongyang taking all the subsequent UNSC condemnations and sanctions, but with ample financial compensations from Tehran.

Origin of Iran’s manned space program

Iran’s Suborbital Manned Launcher IRIS (Islamic Republic of Iran Space) made of a single seater capsule atop a Shahab-3 MRBM was first disclosed in 1988, during a defense exhibition.


▲ |2| |3| Iran’s first manned space launcher based on the Shahab-3 disclosed in 1988.

The U.S. technological lineage is obvious, inspired by the single crew Mercury capsule atop a Redstone ballistic missile.


▲ |2| |3| U.S. Mercury Redstone, Iranian Kavoshgar-Safir-1D, North Korean E1-Hwasong-15.

• Iran’s Aerospace Organization started a 12-year project in 2009 to send an astronaut into orbit by 2021.

• Then in 2010, the program was accelerated, with a manned capsule to be launched into space by 2016.

• As Iran disclosed its suborbital manned project, the same launcher reappeared for the third time, carrying an E1 spacecraft, in February 2015.


▲ |2| |3| The launcher reappeared for the third time, associated with an E1 spacecraft for a suborbital flight, in February 2015.

A year later an improved model was presented to the media.


▲ |2| |3| Irani E1 suborbital space capsule: on the left, new model from 2016, on the right, old exhibition mockup from 2015.

The manned space program was then postponed after the election of President Rouhani in May 2017, to facilitate the application of the JCPOA.

Simultaneously, we got a rare first glimpse at the North Korean crewed space capsule in May of that year.


▲ |2| |3| |1| |2| North Korean crewed space capsule. May 2017.

But after U.S. President Donald Trump declared his withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018, Iran relaunched its manned space program.

Iran’s current manned space program

The first step is to master suborbital flight at 120 km altitude, followed by orbital fight at 250-330 km.

It is similar to the U.S. Mercury-Redstone and Mercury-Atlas approach.

Seven Kavoshgar missions (#9 to #15) with the space capsule were in preparation, when fate postponed once more Iran’s plan with the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic:


▲ |2| |3| The Kavoshgar 1 to 11 biocapsules missions, as of February 2021.

These suborbital flights would have been succeeded by 4 main incremental steps culminating with the crewed orbital mission.


▲ |2| |3| The 4 main milestones incrementally more complex in preparation for the orbital manned flight.

In an event held in the Iranian capital Tehran on Thursday 20th April 2023 titled the Dialogue with the Heavenly Palace, 400k people in Iran have watched the live program. |2| |1|

The opportunity to speak online to the Chinese astronauts deployed at the Shenzhou 15 spaceflight can only be interpreted as a preparation for the Persian public to the comming arrival of Iranian astronauts aboard the Chinese Space Station.

This could be done with Iran’s 2-modules three-seaters orbital manned spacecraft initially disclosed in 2012 and due to be launched by 2019.

Docking with the Chinese Space Station is possible from the forward docking system.


▲ |2| |3| Iran’s three seaters orbital manned spacecraft first disclosed in 2012.

:happy_frog:

23

That’s partly because it’s (probably) not true. The core of NK missile development dates back to Scuds (Russian) that they received from Egypt back in the mid 70s. They then went to work reverse engineering them and flew their own by the mid 80s. They’ve developed a very capable indigenous capability (with external help, including (allegedly) bringing in Russian design teams), and.Iran has paid NK for tech and weapons (NK is the prime source of Scuds / Scud clones in the world), and they’ve (likely) had cooperative development. But it’s very wrong to claim this is Iranian kit outsourced to NK.

3 Likes
24

N Korea is way ahead of Iran in missile tech.

1 Like
25

I find this incredibly unlikely simply because of the difficulty and expense of obtaining parts/tools/equipment to tinker with - even just basic stuff like high-quality steel or aluminum. Unless there’s something I don’t know about NK’s supply chains?

It’s one thing to get a sample missile from Russia. It’s quite another to understand in detail how it works, replicate it, and improve upon it.

1 Like
26

:man_shrugging: Take a look at the missiles they’ve developed.

2 Likes
27

Yeah, the point was, was it actually them who developed those missiles? Where did they get the materials from? How are they paying for it all? Who is making precision parts? Etc.

It’s entirely possible there’s a State-within-a-State in NK - a handful of competent, well-funded individuals who actually get to eat dinner in the evenings instead of dandelions and rice water - who can manage and operate some incredibly complex manufacturing. But it just seems really improbable. There’s got to be more to it than that.

1 Like
28

There’s no doubt to your second paragraph - the Kim family is worth billions. Why’s that seem so improbable? What, specifically, seems so difficult to believe? How complex do you think the manufacturing is / needs to be? - remember, the west stood their programs up on hand made parts and simple.calculators (and hand calcs!). while NK doesn’t have state of the art western tech, they obviously have way better tech than we did in the 60s.

(and yes, they have supply chain issues. they’d have more launches and be way further ahead if they had better access to materials)

1 Like
29

The rocket nozzle? Guidance systems? Yes, I know you there are clever ways to do those things - I’ve watched a few YouTube videos on the V2 rockets and it’s pretty incredible what they did with what they had on hand - but remember that they still had the entire might of a functioning State behind those projects, and that’s no less true today (with vastly more complex technology of course).

Yes, I know there are amateurs out there making rockets, right down to homemade parts, so in principle it’s not … uh, rocket science. IIRC the IRA were at one point on the verge of having a working surface-to-air missile. I’m just more inclined to believe that Iran - whatever you might think of the place - is at least a cohesive entity that can feed its people, and therefore can draw down on the economic output of the entire populace. If NK is developing missiles, it’s not NK as such that’s doing it - it’s a couple of hundred people operating within their own tightly-closed economy in the context of an economic and cultural wasteland.

1 Like
30

Space weather forecast

A full-halo CME, associated with an M1 (R1-Minor) flare, was observed on 21 April. The CME is likely to cause G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming beginning late on 23 April to 24 April (UTC).


▲ |2| On 21st April 2023 large magnetic filament snaking across the sun’s southern hemisphere exploded, hurling a cloud of debris toward Earth.


▲ |2| |1| |2| The CME should reach Earth during the early hours of 24th April between the hours of 00:00 and 12:00 UT.


▲ |2| |3| |1| |2| G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watches 23-24 April, 2023

Monday 24th April 2023 5:00 UTC time is 14:00 Pyongyang Time.

Weather forecast

As of 23th April 2023: Mostly overcast until the end of the month. Rain probability from 25th to 27th April 2023. |1| |2|

Conclusion

The window for a space launch this month is closing.

After Monday, the arrival of the solar coronal mass ejection will present a serious threat, thus forbidding any launch.

Remember the 13th April 2012 launch of Kwamgmyongsong-3 satellite that was struck by an early hour solar storm?

But rain is also announced after that.

A Monday 24th launch would have been the best option, but we have seen no NOTAM issued so far.

:happy_frog:

31

Space weather update

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on April 23rd at 17:37 UT, sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm.

The storm was caused by a CME hitting Earth’s magnetic field. Minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm remain possible on March 24-25 as Earth exits the CME’s wake. |1| |2|

G4 Severe
• Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
• Other systems: satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted |1| |2|

Fluxes of particles with energies ≥ 10 MeV (warning threshold) have reached 16.7 protons/cm2/sec/ster at 18:20 UT. Single Event Upset rates in spacecraft electronics increase with high fluxes since there is a higher likelihood of impact on a sensitive location. |1| |2|

The geomagnetic storm was rated at Kp=8 lasted from 2:00 to 8:00 AM North East Asian Time. It sparked auroras visible in all of North East Asia. |1| |2|

This geomagnetic storm was the most severe of the 25th Solar Cycle that started in December 2019. |1| |2|

:happy_frog:

32

Im sorry if it seems like I’m stalking you. I assure you I’m not.

But seriously what are you talking about? And why is it of any interest or importance to this forum?

33

@Poundsand you seems to come from a gamer’s background, and might have been mislead by the obviously wrong reports that swarm the internet.

Serious analysts of the OSINT community consider Iran as more advanced.

It is true that the first SCUD ballistic missiles were imported from Libya, then Syria and finally the DPRK.

All of course with the green light of Moscow, that wanted to play both the Iraqi card (by a massive supply of weapons to Baghdad) and the Iranian card.

But then, after the end of the Imposed War in 1988, boosted by its natural bounty of hydrocarbon, Iran has soon catched up so quickly as to no longer need to import any ballistic missile from the DPRK.

Iran was already test-firing 2 meters diameter solid-fuel Qaem ballistic missile stage by July 2010, the precursor of the Hwasongpho-18 ICBM. This came some 13 years before North Korea!

▲ |2| Video from the live test performed on Ultra-heavy satellite carrier engine in 2010.

The 2011 Syrian Color Revolution was probably the turning point.

A vital client state of Russia, offering naval base, airbase and listening posts, Syria was at the brink of falling into the hands of the NATO-backed insurgents when Iran’s backed Lebanese Hizbullah fighters were sent to help the Syrian Army (SAA) repel the takfiri’s onslaught.

Thousands more IRGC officers would also lose their lives, until Moscow could secure a victory.

Owing Tehran a debt written in blood, the cash-strapped former superpower could only offer to barter in WMD of the Cold War era.

Soon Iran was producing S-300 and other SAM systems, various Soviet-type radars, Soviet ballistic missiles such as R-27 and R-36, Shkval rocket torpedo, nuclear enrichment centrifuge cascades, testing miniaturised thermonuclear warhead and nuclear EMP warheads (outsourced to North Korea), submarine-launched missiles, naval nuclear reactors, HGV missile, etc.

By now Iran has already developed a 3.5 meter diameter solid-fuel motor for its civilian version Qaem SLV. But again not test-launched for political reason.

Unflown space launchers developed by Iran and waiting to be tested in North Korea are numerous.

Proof, these are always disclosed to the Persian public first, before making their appearance in the North Korean media.

Below a list:

Introduced in 2021, three new GEO space launchers still unheard-of in the DPRK. Possibly of the Safir-3-class family. And one on the right, with cryogenic main engines and 2 side boosters.


▲ |2| |3| |1| |2| Several Safir-3-class family SLVs.

Then we have the heavy launcher with 3 tons payload to GEO. Called the Soroush-2 SLV, it burns cryogenic propellants and has 4 boosters.


▲ |2| |3| Safir-4-class Soroush-2 SLV.

The payload capacity of the launcher has been disclosed in an official website.

Iran’s Communication Satellite Developing Plan 2026

• IRANSAT-1 satellite, 1 ton, GEO, Safir-3A SLV
• IRANSAT-2 satellite, 3 tons, GEO, Safir-3C SLV


▲ |2| |3| |1| |2| Iran’s Communication Satellite Developing Plan 2026

Another recent example can be seen in other satellite subsystems.

Here a picture of the Iranian Pars-1 satellite flight control system back in 2019. Note the cylindrical reaction wheel or fiber-optic laser gyroscope.


▲ |2| |3| |1| |2| Pars-1 satellite flight control system. December 15, 2019.

And the same hardware presented on 19th April 2023 in North Korea:


▲ |2| |3| |2| Three of those circular avionics boxes appear to be reaction wheels or fiber-optic laser gyros.

With a 3 tons payload GEO capability, the Soroush-2 SLV should be able to place more than 6 tons into LEO (and is even quoted at 21 tons for a 200 km LEO).


▲ |2| |3| |1| |2| Soroush-2 space launcher rated at 21 tons payload capacity LEO.

It shares the same design as the Chinese Long-March 2F (CZ-2F) and therefore is expected to launch the Iranian multi-crew manned spacecraft.


▲ |2| |3| |1| |2| Manned-rated Soroush-2 space launcher on the right. Mar 10, 2022.

Below an incomplete CGI rendering of some of the launchers to be tested in the future.


▲ |2| |3| Iran’s Safir SLV family speculation, as of February 2020.

This Russia-Iranian rapprochement has since been upgraded to a full strategic alliance after the 2022 Ukraine Escalation War.

With Iranian Shahed-136 drones making their debut in the Russian army and SU-35 fighter planes soon to be inducted in the Iranian AF.

It is expected that bilateral cooperation, that is the transfer of Russian military technologies will only accelerate as the war drags on.

The most pressing needs for Iran will be the naval sector including aircraft carrier, cruiser, destroyer, submarine, and aircrafts.

Without forgetting of course the nuclear and space sectors.

:happy_frog:

34

No, I come from a defense background.

That’s largely because they have the regions largest stockpile of missiles already (imported from NK). But yes, they can now manufacture their own shorter range missiles - but NK is still ahead in tech, and can produce longer range missiles, as well as having more success with space access.

Yes, Iran has been testing solid fuel engines for a while. That’s a long way from having a missile that works. Assuming you’re talking the Qaem 100, you’re talking a (in development) space launch platform that Iran probably hopes to develop into aICBM platform. The pho-18 is a very mature ICBM platform compared to the Qaem 100 (the regular Qaem is a short range missile). The Qaem 100 had it’s first (suborbital) flight in 2022; NK had their first launch attempt into space in 1988.

(snipped a bunch of Iranian stuff that doesn’t actually exist yet (at a quick read through / glance through the rest). Iran talks big.)