Number of Taiwanese who want to "Reunify."

Politics Taiwan Politics
1

Does anyone know what the latest poll is in regard to the percentage of Taiwanese who want so-called reunification?

I remember, a few years ago, reading 10% and then 6%.

Any more recent information?

Thank you,

Ed

2

It’s 11% in the most recent survey recorded by the MAC:
mac.gov.tw/big5/mlpolicy/pos/9712/9712_1.gif

2% desire immediate reunification, 9% desire gradual reunification.

About 22% desire independence (6% immediately, 16% gradually).

3

So one can assume the double of the population wants independence against unification.

It is going down also as people get more and more information, live democratically, and the pure-WSR population groes small and smaller.

4

But as time goes on there will be less and less pure BSR also.

If you look at the graph the previous total of Independence supporters were 27%. Now the Total Independece supporters are 22%. The biggest drop in this segment were the Immediate Independence supporters, dropping about 9%, From 14.8% to 6%.

On the unification side. The immediate unification supporter hasn’t changed, at around 2%. And gradual unificiation supporter jumped up 5%.

5

Like all polls, it all depends on how the questions are posted.

If one ask about future reunification, where mainland has reached parity or surpassed in wealth and democracy with Taiwan, the answer might be totally different.

If one ask that the future reunification is actually some sort of common wealth or federalist system, the answer will also be different.

6

The sample size of these surveys is 1000-2000 respondents. The confidence level for a sample of this size is about 3%. There is not large enough to know with meaningful confidence that 2% support for unification is meaningfully different from 5% support.

7

True the margin of error for polls are about 3%.

So 14% unificiaton supporters vs. 18% independence supporters, doesn’t look that significant.

That’s 70% status quo supporters. With 30% wanting Status Quo forever.

Good thing there are about 40% support Status Quo now, but will eventually support reunification, once the USA collapses, or I’ll be posting here forever… :discodance:

8

And if people knew that there wasn’t a loaded gun pressed up against their national head, I think it’s safe to guess that the answers would be very different.

9

But it can also be 8% vs 24%, which in this case is very significant… (just using your push one down and the other one up logics)…

10

Actually the question has been asked and of course the majority say they would choose independence. I’ll try to find the poll for you.

11

Thanks, that gives me the answer I’m looking for. Like I said, I’ve read other polls in the past (as we all have) and the numbers are roughly the same, or in the same range at least.

I once met an American guy who lived in Shanghai who asked if it were true that 90% of Taiwanese wanted to reunify with China. Heh heh. Propaganda.

Speaking of guns to one’s head (Maoman), what’s the missile count at now?

Thanks again,

Ed

12

Huh, welcome to reality.
Which reminds me of some sayings: the ones with the gold (or big stick) rule and no guts no glory.

13

Hey, I’ve never been under any illusions with regards to Taiwan’s precarious position. I just think it’s important to point out that Taiwan is a nation under duress, and most interpretations of the polls don’t take that into account.

14

Sounds like the new book is coming along, Ed, if all of the recent threads are any indication. Forumosa had better get a huge credit in the footnotes.

15

Actually, my new book is called A Short History of the Swedish Porn Industry, but if people on Forumosa want a credit, well, okay.

16

THe History of the Swedish Porn Industry is short? I thought it was a long one…

17

I just thought ‘Short History’ would make it more marketable. Could go with ‘Brief History’ I suppose…

BTW, thanks cctang for that graph.

18

I’ve heard people say this a number of times, and it just confuses the hell out of me. First, what loaded gun to the head? Second, even if that’s true, why would anyone care even a little bit about what China thinks when they’re answering some poll question? Hard to imagine any respondent not answering with their honest opinion. It’s not like there’s anyone dumb enough to have thought they’re actually setting national policy when they’re answering the polls.

19

The loaded gun is the PRC’s longstanding promise to use military force if Taiwan delcares independence. The passing of the Anti-Secession Law last year legally authorizing this (within the PRC’s own legal system), and the military build-up across the Taiwan Strait is evidence that this threat is no bluff.

Taiwanese people are, in my opinion, quite pragmatic. So, if you ask them “Do you want to formally declare Taiwanese independence?” and they know that this would result in a likely war of some sort with the PRC, they are much more likely to say no.

Anecdotally, most of the Taiwanese that I ask “Would you support Taiwan independence if the PRC said it was OK?” give me a blank look for about 20 seconds and then say “Of course!” with a trace of suprise that I would need to ask such a question.

20

What if theoretically PRC was okay with TI, but USA was not okay with TI? Wouldn’t Taiwan be in the same situation?

I find the characterization that it is only the PRC preventing de jure independence to be somewhat misleading.