I’m saying the Red Sox in four.
I posted my EC prediction in another thread Bush 273-265.
Okay, money where your mouth is time:
Final results-Winner, Electoral College and popular votes;
EC individual states and Senate/House if you wish, but try to keep it just staight predictions:
Kerry 283 Bush 246 (Kerry gets Florida but loses Ohio)
Kerry wins popular vote by 1.5-2%
I don’t have a F***ing clue as to who will win nor by how much. It will be a total surprise to me Wednesday Taipei time either way though I really do hope that we find out on Nov. 3.
It’ll certainly be close, but perhaps not as close as many people are expecting. The result, however, is a foregone conclusion: by hook or by crook, George W. Bush will succeed in clinging to the presidency, and the world will pay a heavy price in the next four years and beyond for the incomprehensible stupidity of the people who are going to allow him to stay in office.
I’ll be only too glad to cook and eat every word of this post if it isn’t so, but there isn’t the slightest room for doubt that it will be.
Be prepared for sickening displays of triumphalism from Bush and his cohorts after the result is announced.
Thanks for your confidence and support but the Democrats appear to be engaging in some massive legal and “voter signup” efforts if you get my drift. Hope to see this parlay into some serious voter registration reform efforts. Let’s get going with this. Proof of citizenship, proof of residence and proof of registration to vote. This is a basic minimum.
Omni, I hope your predicting victory for the team you want to lose doesn’t work this time.
Its very difficult to predict who will win.
Some comment, however, from the world of sport.
Today, the Washington Redskins lost their last home game prior to the presidential election. In the last 17 elections, when the Redskins won their last home game prior to the presidential election, the incumbant was re-elected. During the same period, whenever the Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the presidential election, the challenger has been elected. This indicator has been consistent for a streak of 68 years.
But… curiously enough… this has been a time for streaks involving an element from Boston to end. The Boston Red Sox just ended in October their streak of consecutive years since 1918 without winning a World Series Championship. The New England Patriots (from Boston) just had their record-setting winning streak of 21 games abruptly broken when the Pittsburgh Steelers crushed them today 34-20 (GO STEELERS!).
I think it is thus possible that the Redskins’ streak of indicating which candidate will win the presidential election by the result of their play in thier last home game prior to the election could be broken tomorrow. I would not make this prediction, were it not for the fact that Kerry is from Boston.
So, my prediction: Bush by a whisker.
[quote=“MikeN”]Okay, money where your mouth is time:
Final results-Winner, Electoral College and popular votes;
EC individual states and Senate/House if you wish, but try to keep it just staight predictions:
Kerry 283 Bush 246 (Kerry gets Florida but loses Ohio)
Kerry wins popular vote by 1.5-2%[/quote]
there are 538 total electoral votes. :help:
Once November 12th rolls around (or December 13th or whatever date you think the results will be known) it will be interesting to see how many people more or less accept the outcome.
Both on this board and also talking to people back in the US, I have certainly seen a high level of “gearing up for disappointment.”
[color=red]Republicans: “With the amount of voter fraud Kerry’s campaign has been getting away with, it is hard to see how Bush can win. People voting multiple times, fictional IDs used to get ballots for non-existant voters… it’s all too much. Yes, the Republicans are probably engaged in some nasty business too – but not nearly on the same scale as the fraud being perpetrated by the Democrats.”[/color]
[color=blue]Democrats: “With the amount of voter intimidation Bush’s campaign has been getting away with, it is hard to see how Kerry can win. People being scared away from voting booths, minority ballots being thrown out… it’s all too much. Yes, the Democrats are probably engaged in some nasty business too – but not nearly on the same scale as the intimidation being perpetrated by the Republicans.”[/color]
Many seem to have already decided that, if their is any justice in the world, their side should win. Many on both sides seem to think that a loss by their side can only be explained by either cheating-fraudulent-voting or cheating-voter-intimidation.
There are certainly exceptions to this, and I’m sure that in the next month or so we will see members of this board step up and concede graciously. But given that the polls are dead even (and as far as I know nobody is alleging “poll-fraud” or “polltaker-intimidation”) it is interesting to see how many of my friends back home are convinced that the only way they can lose is if there is foul play.
Goofus votes for Bush
The Weekly Reader has correctly predicted the winner 11 out of 12 times since 1956. That balances out the Redskin thing.
(I’m sure Gallant voted for Kerry.)
Kerry by a hair.
I completely agree with Hobbes. Come what may, we should let the system and not lawyers decide who wins. If it comes down to another close election, we should all allow the system to take over and work as patiently as possible. While there have been abuses, they also have been discovered and dealt with albeit imperfectly. The system works and it will work again. Talking about cynical manipulation of the process is not something that makes our country stronger. That said, I would certainly support greater efforts to crack down on voter registration. Again, proof of citizenship, registration and residency. A basic minimum. The rest will take care of itself.
Kerry by popular vote, Bush by “stealing” it.
And to think–foreigners rip on the locals for being so superstitious.
I am with Fred and hope for clean results with no drama. And I hope that the people posting 30 times a day get girlfriends.
Because Kerry and Edwards have better hair?
[quote=“Tigerman”]
Today, the Washington Redskins lost their last home game prior to the presidential election. In the last 17 elections, when the Redskins won their last home game prior to the presidential election, the incumbant was re-elected. During the same period, whenever the Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the presidential election, the challenger has been elected. This indicator has been consistent for a streak of 68 years.
But… curiously enough… this has been a time for streaks involving an element from Boston to end. The Boston Red Sox just ended in October their streak of consecutive years since 1918 without winning a World Series Championship. The New England Patriots (from Boston) just had their record-setting winning streak of 21 games abruptly broken when the Pittsburgh Steelers crushed them today 34-20 (GO STEELERS!).
I think it is thus possible that the Redskins’ streak of indicating which candidate will win the presidential election by the result of their play in thier last home game prior to the election could be broken tomorrow. I would not make this prediction, were it not for the fact that Kerry is from Boston.[/quote]
Which part of what I wrote above is superstitious?
How many?
And why is this an issue for you? What do you care?
Bush will win by Supreme Court decision, as he did last time.
my prediction:
if the election results go to the supreme court, they will refuse to hear the case and whatever decision made by a lower court will stand.
Fred, I also support there being a legit vote for president and not having the courts making the decision again.
However, I would recommend stripping the voting process of much of its bureaucracy and to focus on the fundamentals – legit citizens get to vote once per election for the federal, state and local candidates affecting the place where they live. No more mincing words about the thickness of the paper on which the registration application is on, no more private groups ripping up applications, and no more unsureness of applicants wondering whether they really are registered or not.
If it were up to me, I would strip out the whole voter-registration thing and toss it in the bin – make voting an automatic right tied into the issuance of an appropriate secure national ID. Make it so that any post office can handle address changes in 5 minutes, thus allowing accurate mail delivery and an updated voter registration.
my prediction:
if the election results go to the supreme court, they will refuse to hear the case and whatever decision made by a lower court will stand.[/quote]
That depends on what the lower court decision is.