Population Statistics

Work Teaching English in Taiwan
1

Those teaching kids in Taiwan, or planning to do so, often express concern about the diminishing number of school-age kids here, and hence the falling demand for teachers. I was just looking at the government’s official population statistics, and they put this into very stark perspective. Here are a few of the numbers:

The population aged under 15 has fallen from roughly 5.5 million in 1990 to 4.7 million in 2000 to 3.624 million in 2010 and to 3.502 million last year. That’s a drop of 2 million in 21 years, and a drop of 122,000 last year alone. Those numbers represent a substantial lessening of demand for teachers in both the formal school and cram school systems.

Over the same period, the population of under fives fell relatively slowly from a bit over 1.6 million in 1990 to a bit under 1.5 million in 2000, plunged very sharply to just 964,000 in 2010 (an extraordinary drop in just a decade), but then fell by a mere 7,000 to 957,000 last year.

2

Government, like many countries, tried to stimulate “growth” by giving people incentives for having children. That plus the year of the dragon will temporarily offset the decrease in the number of births and aging population, but it won’t affect anything over the long term. I still don’t know how parents here manage to raise children when their combined income must be around 50k - 60k a month with both parents working, at least that what I think most people would be earning. Things are already terrible here in Kaohsiung and trying to find enough hours at cram schools, so I hate to think of what it will be like in a couple of years from now. Taiwan the Titanic.

3

They are incredible figures. The under fives in particular. The area I’m living is growing and is full of young families, so there are still loads of ankle biters around. It must be in the countryside where there are no children.

You’d think that there would be a major panic in a society where early retirement is the norm. Who’s going to pay for the oldies?

4

I have a Taiwanese mate who is on comparatively good money, 60k, and I have no idea how he manages to get by with two kids. His wife has a job for a further 25k. However, they send both kids to a private bilingual kindy which costs 30k. His mortgage is 25k, so their combined income is immediately down to 30k a month. Subtract bills, car loan, groceries etc and he clearly can’t be saving each month. Raising kids is really expensive and Taiwan is not a child-friendly place, so I can only see the numbers going in one direction.

5

I think the worst population decline is probably not in the countryside per se, but actually in the city. Numbers are clearly falling here in Taidong County (I’ve written before about the state of schools around me), yet many of my students (particularly the aboriginal students) come from families with at least three children, and two child families seems to be about the norm here, even amongst the Han families. It’s relatively easy to raise a family here in terms of the cost of living (even with lower salaries). It’s just that the kids don’t stay in the countryside because there are no opportunities for them here. They all end up moving to big cities, and I suspect it is those people (as well as others) not having kids because they can’t afford them. Maybe if they stayed in the countryside, they would have children, though it would beg the question of how they would support them. Anyway, there must be huge swathes of the major cities that simply don’t have kids. Another factor is probably the age at which people have children. Many people don’t have children until well into their thirties. This effectively means that over the course of sixty or seventy years, an entire generation simply doesn’t get born. That alone must account for a fair part of the population decline.

At some point, the demographic situation in Taiwan is going to really hit a crisis point, and I believe that point can’t be too far away, perhaps ten to twenty years at most. Certainly where I am, it’s about to hit in a big way. At one of the elementary schools near me, this year’s first grade had only three students. At some point, they will have to close that school. One of the big problems with that in Taidong County is that, it seems like in the majority of cases, the middle class people (who can really afford kids) here have government jobs. Such people will simply disappear, hastening the decline. This will have flow on effects as these people will not exist to spend money in the local economy, so kids who might have taken over their parents’ shops will also be forced to leave.

Also, it is amazing how much of a role the Chinese zodiac plays in this. This year’s incoming seventh grade were born in the year of the dragon and because there are so many, we may actually have one additional seventh grade class this year. However, this is only a temporary stem of the flow and the long term trends do not look good.

6

I have a Taiwanese mate who is on comparatively good money, 60k, and I have no idea how he manages to get by with two kids. His wife has a job for a further 25k. However, they send both kids to a private bilingual kindy which costs 30k. His mortgage is 25k, so their combined income is immediately down to 30k a month. Subtract bills, car loan, groceries etc and he clearly can’t be saving each month. Raising kids is really expensive and Taiwan is not a child-friendly place, so I can only see the numbers going in one direction.[/quote]

This is the bit that I really don’t get. I have a friend who works in the MOE programme. His wife is originally from Yilan County. He could basically do his job anywhere (he has had the option of taking a position in Hualian, for instance), for the same money. A large part of his and his wife’s decision to live in New Taipei City and for her to work in Taipei City is based upon her job. Yet she has a very average kind of job. I can’t see how that can possibly make any financial sense. The higher cost of living, commuting, etc. in Taipei, coupled with the fact that they pay a babysitter for their kid who is about one year old, just can’t possibly justify their situation. Even if she got a job in Hualian for 15K/month less (and it probably wouldn’t be that much less), it would still work out better to move to Hualian. Or even better, I’m sure they could figure something out for Yilan, and then her mother could help look after the kid. My friend is sick of commuting (to Xinzhu) for work, and he’s talking about freelancing and doing privates around where they live. Yeah, him and every other foreigner in Taipei. Too much competition. I can’t see that that would work out for him. Yet if he and his wife were to find a somewhat large town (such as the one she is from!!!) and set up shop there, even in an unofficial capacity at first, they could probably do okay and have virtually no competition.

I just don’t understand the rationale of moving to Taipei to earn, for example, 6,000NTD/month more, but spend 12,000NTD/month more in the process. Yet I can’t get this through to my friend.

7

[quote=“tomthorne”]They are incredible figures. The under fives in particular. The area I’m living is growing and is full of young families, so there are still loads of ankle biters around. It must be in the countryside where there are no children.

You’d think that there would be a major panic in a society where early retirement is the norm. Who’s going to pay for the oldies?[/quote]

Not really, if you look who actually lives with Taipei City boundaries it’s mostly older folk, most young people could not afford to purchase a house there and raise children. On the other hand all my wife’s cousins from Miaoli County are having multiple kids, one even had three kids within 5 years which I have never seen in the city. At the same time there is a deficit of children compared to years past even in the countryside.

8

[quote=“tomthorne”]They are incredible figures. The under fives in particular. The area I’m living is growing and is full of young families, so there are still loads of ankle biters around. It must be in the countryside where there are no children.

You’d think that there would be a major panic in a society where early retirement is the norm. Who’s going to pay for the oldies?[/quote]

The year of the dragon has resulted in every maternity centre being overbooked this year. I know because we had a daughter recently :slight_smile:. I could see the birth rate stabilising somewhat now, most couples still want two children, if they are able to have them. Because of the later age of marriage and first births many couples have difficult conceding one let alone two children…and affording them is another matter entirely.

9

Conceding?

“Yes, doctor, unfortunately, I must admit that this is my child, as ugly as it is. Can’t I take another instead?”

10

I have a Taiwanese mate who is on comparatively good money, 60k, and I have no idea how he manages to get by with two kids. His wife has a job for a further 25k. However, they send both kids to a private bilingual kindy which costs 30k. His mortgage is 25k, so their combined income is immediately down to 30k a month. Subtract bills, car loan, groceries etc and he clearly can’t be saving each month. Raising kids is really expensive and Taiwan is not a child-friendly place, so I can only see the numbers going in one direction.[/quote]

This is the bit that I really don’t get. I have a friend who works in the MOE programme. His wife is originally from Yilan County. He could basically do his job anywhere (he has had the option of taking a position in Hualian, for instance), for the same money. A large part of his and his wife’s decision to live in New Taipei City and for her to work in Taipei City is based upon her job. Yet she has a very average kind of job. I can’t see how that can possibly make any financial sense. The higher cost of living, commuting, etc. in Taipei, coupled with the fact that they pay a babysitter for their kid who is about one year old, just can’t possibly justify their situation. Even if she got a job in Hualian for 15K/month less (and it probably wouldn’t be that much less), it would still work out better to move to Hualian. Or even better, I’m sure they could figure something out for Yilan, and then her mother could help look after the kid. My friend is sick of commuting (to Xinzhu) for work, and he’s talking about freelancing and doing privates around where they live. Yeah, him and every other foreigner in Taipei. Too much competition. I can’t see that that would work out for him. Yet if he and his wife were to find a somewhat large town (such as the one she is from!!!) and set up shop there, even in an unofficial capacity at first, they could probably do okay and have virtually no competition.

I just don’t understand the rationale of moving to Taipei to earn, for example, 6,000NTD/month more, but spend 12,000NTD/month more in the process. Yet I can’t get this through to my friend.[/quote]

A lot of people don’t want to move back to their hometown. Sometimes they think it’s boring. Sometimes they have unhappy memories. Sometimes they think it’s too close to their family. Sometimes they prefer the big city and bright lights. I’ve had similar conversations with the wife, it’s her who is the unenthusiastic one about moving too close to her family.

11

[quote=“GuyInTaiwan”]Conceding?

“Yes, doctor, unfortunately, I must admit that this is my child, as ugly as it is. Can’t I take another instead?”[/quote]

:roflmao:

12

[quote=“tomthorne”]They are incredible figures. The under fives in particular. The area I’m living is growing and is full of young families, so there are still loads of ankle biters around. It must be in the countryside where there are no children.

You’d think that there would be a major panic in a society where early retirement is the norm. Who’s going to pay for the oldies?[/quote]

There is not a major panic yet , I can guess at the reasons

i) It takes time for the implications to sink in
ii) People think on an individual and family basis, not on a society basis
iii) The wealth pyramid currently is positive towards to the new generation i.e. property and asset levels have been going up and the number to share with has been going down quickly. In many cases you 4>4>2 or even 4>4>1. This means that there are a lot of people planning to live off inheritance. This trend has been very obvious in the current middle aged set. They have also been able to help the younger generation with loans and deposits and even gifted property and cars as the number of dependents decreased so quickly.

This only works when asset levels are high and for a couple of decades until the current middle aged generation spends most of what they have…eventually the lack of population growth and retirement and healthcare costs will start to bite as the wealth pyramid becomes reversed and has to flow back up to support previous generations, becoming 1>4 or 2>4 as an example.

Countries like Taiwan and China will get stuck in the middle income trap as they run out of new consumers and enough next generation to fund the previous generations. Then it becomes like Japan which is a game of trying to hold onto as much money as you can.

13

Outlaw condoms, the pill and other contraceptives, make abortion a criminal act and lower the legal age for having sex … in ten years there will be a population explosion … oh, and let public transport start earlier, add more early morning noisy events … you know, to early to get up and too late to sleep-in again, it makes people do other things … :whistle:

More binlang and less Gaoliang …

14

Actually Belgian Pie has a point, it is probably the lack of support for single mothers which is the single biggest factor!

15

The government’s projections are here: Population Projections for Taiwan: 2010-2060.

The CEPD believes Taiwan’s population in 2060 will be 18.84 million (with the low-end estimate at 17.2 million and the high-end estimate at 19.9 million).

The current median age is 38.4 years. In 2060 it’s expected to be 59.5 years.

The age distribution is now
[ul][li]0-14 years: 14.4%[/li]
[li]15-64 years: 74.4%[/li]
[li]65+ years: 11.2%[/li][/ul]

The projections for the same groups in 2060 are
[ul][li]0-14 years: 9.4%[/li]
[li]15-64 years: 48.9%[/li]
[li]65+ years: 41.6%[/li][/ul]

16

[quote=“GuyInTaiwan”]

This is the bit that I really don’t get. I have a friend who works in the MOE programme. His wife is originally from Yilan County. He could basically do his job anywhere (he has had the option of taking a position in Hualian, for instance), for the same money. A large part of his and his wife’s decision to live in New Taipei City and for her to work in Taipei City is based upon her job. Yet she has a very average kind of job. I can’t see how that can possibly make any financial sense. The higher cost of living, commuting, etc. in Taipei, coupled with the fact that they pay a babysitter for their kid who is about one year old, just can’t possibly justify their situation. Even if she got a job in Hualian for 15K/month less (and it probably wouldn’t be that much less), it would still work out better to move to Hualian. Or even better, I’m sure they could figure something out for Yilan, and then her mother could help look after the kid. My friend is sick of commuting (to Xinzhu) for work, and he’s talking about freelancing and doing privates around where they live. Yeah, him and every other foreigner in Taipei. Too much competition. I can’t see that that would work out for him. Yet if he and his wife were to find a somewhat large town (such as the one she is from!!!) and set up shop there, even in an unofficial capacity at first, they could probably do okay and have virtually no competition.

I just don’t understand the rationale of moving to Taipei to earn, for example, 6,000NTD/month more, but spend 12,000NTD/month more in the process. Yet I can’t get this through to my friend.[/quote]

My mate’s wife gets the standard 14 months a year pay bonus, but they would still be better off is she looked after the kids. It’s not like they are acquiring anything approximating the English language in their ever so exclusive “bilingual” kindy. I’m sure they have their reasons, though. I’ve asked him before but he just politely brushes the question off. Probably none of my business.

As for living in Taipei, I’m not sure how people on the average teaching salary manage to do it now. Everything seems really expensive there when I go to visit. I also don’t really get it because the teaching pay isn’t noticably higher than elsewhere. Taipei feels to me very similar to the UK a few years back when everyone felt rich because they had so much positive equity. For example, a guy I work with wanted to take his girlfriend to some restaurant/nightclub (I can’t remember which one, maybe Brown Sugar) and was told that because it was Saturday night he’d have to pay a deposit of 5000NTD as a minimum spend. Ten years ago in London I wouldn’t have thought twice about spending £100 on a meal for two. Over here though I though there was a different mentality, but it looks like that is changing.

17

I have a Taiwanese mate who is on comparatively good money, 60k, and I have no idea how he manages to get by with two kids. His wife has a job for a further 25k. However, they send both kids to a private bilingual kindy which costs 30k. His mortgage is 25k, so their combined income is immediately down to 30k a month. Subtract bills, car loan, groceries etc and he clearly can’t be saving each month. Raising kids is really expensive and Taiwan is not a child-friendly place, so I can only see the numbers going in one direction.[/quote]

You are forgetting that many Taiwanese making the amount above rely on extended family for a number of meals/babysitting/cash gifts frequently throughout the year. Furthermore, you are forgetting bonuses. Many Taiwanese again get up to a full year’s salary just on bonuses (e.g. 5 month bonus for wife, 7 for husband etc.). Very common to get such bonuses.

18

My arse it is common to get such bonuses. The vast majority of people are lucky to get two months bonus, many only get one. Some companies give out cash gifts on Chinese holidays but again half a month’s salary would be considered a lot, many just get a gift coupon for 500/1000 NTD for Sogo or the like.

It does happen that people can get 4-6 month bonuses but only in selected companies and Taiwanese semi-states, even it is not guaranteed and not neccessarily every year. In companies like Fulong motors they tend to get a good few months bonus but only on good revenue in the given year. The fabled 1 year bonus probably only occurs in certain finance or real estate companies, again I’m pretty sure they haven’t been handing these out too much recently.

19

Living in Taipei certainly can lead to ruin and damnation. And is certainly the road to perdition for many. With the rampant spending for “face” going on.

Many “true” Taipei-ians. The ones who have lived there all their lives are better prepared to not fall into this trap. Having long since found their place in the rat race.

But those who have newly arrived often just do not know how to manage affairs and friends and all the condiments from living in Taipei at times.

Yes I am saying im a true Taipei-ian and iv long since found my place there so I know how to be miserly.

ONe has to watch ones pennies and dimes and quarters , not to mention dollars in that vortex of over-the-topness they call Taipei.

And there are so many trapped in the truly vain madona-nistic materialism that its just unreal.

Young ladies are obsessed with purses costing 100,000nt and up and the such. Such crass materialism taking the place of an understanding of the meaning of life and the enjoyment thereof.

Watched a clip from a well known Taiwanese show where they interviewed six young ladies who work in clubs. They were between the ages of 20 to 26. They all work at niteclubs and had sex with customers for money. They were certainly quite pretty but oh so air-headed. The six of them together wouldnt be able to all find the door to leave the room so to speak.

They all aspired to have a rich benefactor who could provide , say, 500,000 nt a month of stipends to them. No matter if he is old , he has to be rich.

And yet with all their earnings. Quite good it seems, they cant seem to put any of it in a bank . They each had less then one million ntd to show for their sacrifice.

It all went to bags, shoes, and other accoutrements of the high clubbin life in taipei.

So many have lost their way. Having a warped sense of attainment . LIfe as measured in LV.

One of them was also some sort of online well known “beauty”. And she boasted that she could express a desire for a certain handbag and someone will call and offer that to her within hours !

FAced with this sort of temptation, values certainly can get skewed.

20

I doubt the vast majority of people working in the private sweatshop businesses get any kind of “major” bonuses. I am not talking about large corporations or government employees. I have added up what the wife and I spend a month and we are very conservative, so I can’t see how anyone on 50k to 60k could raise a child without family support and/or hitting up the credit cards big time.

Anyway, I think the only thing that will “save” Taiwan will be some kind of reunification/whatever word you want to use with China. There’s no way people are going to magically start having children. Not when their wages will continue to stagnate or go down due to the global financial fuck up we created (70% of Taiwan’s GDP comes from exports?) and the cost of everything continues to rise. Plenty of public and private elementary, secondary and universities will be on the chopping block in the foreseeable future.