Just a politician trying to get votes or is this the real deal?
There are definitely signs that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine in the near future, for example they have been staging troops and material on the border and warning of invasion for several weeks now. This is not an insightful prediction.
While China’s best response for a near-term successful land invasion of Taiwan would be to time it with American distraction over conflict in Europe, I still don’t see the signs. Reading the first and last articles you share, the only reason to see Chinese invasion given is the increase of Chinese air patrols near Taiwan (which, if I’m not mistaken, has actually dropped off in recent months).
Given that we are not seeing preparations for a March invasion, such as the massing of troops and materials (February and April, I understand, the waters are too dangerous for an amphibious assault), and combined with economic difficulties in China now that will be far worsened by a Taiwan conflict (not to mention other social dangers inherent for the CCP if the invasion is anything but a success), I do not see an imminent Chinese invasion as a real threat.
There is no new information here and no sign of China crossing the strait, only a changing situation on the Russian borders and the vague (but unlikely) possibility that China seizes this moment to make an unnecessary gamble that could backfire spectacularly. And a GOP politician taking advantage of this to bad mouth the current administration.
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Russia and China’s strategies are to prime us with expectations — to expect an “invasion” would automatically entail “massive build up of forces” , “fleets of battleships” , “thousands of fighter jets” etc. But their final execution might be entirely irrelevant to the buildup or ADIZ incursions.
It’s like a magic trick, we should be looking at everything that is not happening, and thinking what potential is there. They need to establish element of surprise in a modern world where everything can be seen via satellite, infrared, etc. They want to overemphasize the visibility of their actions.
Especially looking at proxies — China certainly wouldn’t make a first move without first using North Korea or Iran to distract. Same with Russia, they won’t move on Ukraine without first destabilizing Kosovo to draw NATO into another distraction there too.
Remember the point for Russia and China is not to battle, the point is to establish control. Control of space, land, sea, resources, and trade and they don’t need brute force of military equipment for that, or even a big presence.
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Oh joy. As if things weren’t peachy enough right now.
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an invasion would require these things, that isn’t a false expectation it is a reality
this is an exercise in infinity
some sense in this comment
not necessarily true, why risk dragging in Israel or South Korea?
You mean, like they didn’t do when they annexed Crimea or stirred up Donbas?
This is the point for everyone, isn’t it?
you will begin to see CCP, Communist Party, invade Taiwan
lol