I never mentioned guanxi… I conduct my business purely on a professional and totally objective platform. I dont care what party you align with I just want to know how your business is going and how we can help.
That’s interesting. You do business in Taiwan but without guanxi? 
We are talking about different worlds and different customers.
Once again it appears you have difficulty reading. I never said I dont UTILISE guanxi - I said I never MENTIONED guanxi in my post.
I truly hope you dont use these communication and listening skills (or lack thereof) with clients.
[quote=“Yellow Cartman”]
What you misinterpreted in my writing was that I did not say that Taiwan is doing poorly. [/quote]
So?
If all 3 quotes are by you and are correct, one would expect that Taiwan is doing poorly.
I disagree compeletely. Also, there’s a fair bit of product specific research going on here, especially in the high tech sector.
OK, but please look at the base the countries you compare with are starting from. theonly other one coming close is Korea, the rest are growing from much lower bases. Also, I would not call a country like vietnam a mjor competitor to Taiwan in the high tech field. korea yes, but the other countries are competing on different ladders of the value chain.
OK, I am losing you even more now. I hope you can help me explain. First of all, the countries you mention as receipients of Taiwanese resources, and countries outpacing Taiwan:
Wasteful use of resources on both counts. Either by the government, or by a speculative bubble, where artificial low interest rates keep things going.
First of all, you are at the tail end of an upcycle, with plenty of capacity comin gon line and depressing prices. This is cyclical, adn hitting the whole industry. Engineers? You want me to find an engineer who’s positive? Give me an hour and I will find one not giving excuses for wanting to change jobs to a HR consultant.
Also, the real estate bubbles of Shanghai (Much of the real estate speculation is done by state owned companies) and the government corruption failures of megalomatic malaysia has little to do with TSMC, UMC, AUO, CPT, Nanya Tech., and all the other companies making up the backbone of Taiwan’s economic miracle. Here, the government does not piss money away on a cyber something, they are far too poor for that. Here it’s business who invest heavily due to their knowledge of their markets and the needs of their customers. They might overshoot at times, but so far they have ended up on the wining side. What makes this high tech cycle so different?
As far as I see there are no perverse incitements here having any influence on say TSMC’s decision to build a 12inch wafer fab.
It gets better…
My GF works there, in the office of one of the high level officials there. I called her and asked. She told me flatly that it was untrue.
OK, so you are claiming that the engineers running the new 12 inch wafer fabs at UMC or TSMC are not in place? How come that Taiwanese high tech engineers are a hot commodity in China? Who seems to lack the engineering base to make the foundries running?
On a lower tech note, the factory I work with seems to be on the ball when it comes to run their new printing machine.
I am not crying wolf - unless you. I have listened to this song bout impending doom since 1995, and the fools singing it have been very wrong so far.
I also work in the finance industry, but I make the tea, so my views are worthless.
I wish the political parties and electorate cared as much about these rather important questions as about the nonsense that appears on TV and in the papers. Plenty of time to argue about flags and names of things and Taiwanesifying everything when the economy’s bust.
[quote=“hexuan”]I also work in the finance industry, but I make the tea, so my views are worthless.
Plenty of time to argue about flags and names of things and Taiwanesifying everything when the economy’s bust.[/quote]
?
Economy bust? 
My GF works there, in the office of one of the high level officials there. I called her and asked. She told me flatly that it was untrue.[/quote]
I have first hand experience at the CSIST as I was brought in for project consulting. I was on-site at the facilities and took a tour at a few of the buildings. I noticed electrical bulbs missing from the ceilings at the buildings I was at and asked the staff scientists about it and that was what I was told. The insides of the buildings were in disrepair and almost decrepit, considering that this is the top DOD R&D Institute
OK, so you are claiming that the engineers running the new 12 inch wafer fabs at UMC or TSMC are not in place? How come that Taiwanese high tech engineers are a hot commodity in China? Who seems to lack the engineering base to make the foundries running?[/quote]
In 2003 and 2004, Taiwan has run high level delegations at recruiting technical workers to come back to Taiwan, especially at the Hsinchu S&T Park and the bio-tech park in Tainan. There’s a lot of activity between Taiwan and Silicon Valley. There is not enough brain power in Taiwan so it must be imported. The country’s efforts judging from the past two years don’t seem to be successful. While Taiwan is losing its low margin industries, it’s not as successful in obtaining the necessary expertise for the high level industries. Japan has forsaken Taiwan and have sourced their R&D and design work to Mainland China.
China is merely sourcing for any technology workers and Taiwan for its language and geographical proximity makes it an obvious poaching ground. This fact only illustrates that the outflow of Taiwanese resources are being spent off-island rather than on-island. And this trend is not a positive trend.
On a lower tech note, the factory I work with seems to be on the ball when it comes to run their new printing machine.
I am not crying wolf - unless you. I have listened to this song bout impending doom since 1995, and the fools singing it have been very wrong so far.[/quote]
We shall see.
[quote=“AWOL”]Once again it appears you have difficulty reading. I never said I don’t UTILISE guanxi - I said I never MENTIONED guanxi in my post.
I truly hope you dont use these communication and listening skills (or lack thereof) with clients.[/quote]
[quote]AWOL wrote:
You said you were in HR right? Well… naturally you are going to talk to a lot of pissed off people, upset with the economy etc… we talk to politicians, academics, local companies and MNC’s from a diverse range of industries, people in the street, consumers, foreign offices, trade associations, venture capital companies, consultants, HR firms etc etc… [/quote]
Right.
[quote=“Mr He”][quote=“hexuan”]I also work in the finance industry, but I make the tea, so my views are worthless.
Plenty of time to argue about flags and names of things and Taiwanesifying everything when the economy’s bust.[/quote]
?
Economy bust? [/quote]
We shall see. I don’t know where you get your optimism from. Okay, a few semiconductor companies, great. Indeed leading manufacturers of semiconductors. Would be great anywhere. But that’s it. They at the end of the day are still manufacturers.
Where are the companies who have gone beyond the “we make it cheaper than other people model”? The move to China is about costs, nothing else. Apart from Taiwan’s two flagship companies, I can only think of HTC who are actually innovating. Could we add Giant bicycle to this? I also see big money in credit cards if there is enough headroom for people to take on even more debt. But where are Taiwan’s future revenue streams coming from? Can Taiwan make huge margins forever on manufacturing other people’s ideas? If so, then the party continues. Bring on the dancing girls! :bravo:
Light bulbs missing! OMG… I take it all back, Taiwan is dooooooooooooooomed. 
I think you are all truly underestimating Mr He’s intimate knowledge of Taiwan industry and the economy. He knows what he is talking about. I am not so positive he is being overlly optimistic just a bit more realistic.
I don’t really know kow to reply, that the givernment is spending less on maintaining their buildings that they should is a fact. However, if you hve seen an UK hospital, then you have crappy buildings and great staff inside.
OK, the development in intellectual capital:
Patents granted
In 1993: 22,317
In 2002 45,042
In 2003 53,034
That seems good enough.
OK, research and development as percentage of GDP:
1993 1.8%
2002 2.2%
2003 2.3%
The trend in this proxy for R&D is up. Also, the trend is that Public sector R&D as a proportion of the total is going down, from 52% in 1991 to 38.1% in 2002, IE more and more of the research is focused on private companies.
Looking at exports and imports, the picture becomes more interesting still:
What does Taiwan import?
- Agricultural and industrial raw materials. (70.5% in 2003)
- Capital equipment. (20.5% in 2003)
- consumer goods (9.1% in 2003)
To put that figure in “human terms” they import things to eat and things to use for making things for export.
Cool enough, what do they export?
- Industrial products is a mere 98.5% of total exports.
Electronic products constitute some 21.6% of the total (2003) It’s a small improvement from 2002 where the figure was 19.8%.
Taiwan’s biggest export market is China (including HK), which is 34.6% of total exports, or US$50bn. They are only no.3 when it comes to imports at 8.6% (US$11bn) of total imports after Japan and the US. (I have a slight undershoot here, as HK was too small to show up in the table)
OK, how about the capital outflow?
Ha, I got a major surprise.
From 1997 through 2003, the average annual direct outbound investment was some US$5.2bn. For 2003, the figure was US$5.7bn, only a bit above its mid term average.
Inbound foreign investment into the ROC topped in 2000 with some US$4.9bn being invested from abroad. It has now falled to US$450m, but an even larger drop was seen in the mid 1990’s. (1997, incidentially). However, this figure has been small compared to domestic investment figures. (roughly US$29bn for machinery and equipment in 2003, which is below the 2000 figure of US$40bn, but in line with 1998 2001 & 2002 figures. (1999-2000 was a high tech investment bubble anyways). IE mainly Taiwanese companies are still spending huge wads of money on upgrading industry here.
Obviously, I am here talking about direct investment. You see bigger inflows and outflows when it comes to equity investments, as Taiwanese money are places abroad, while foreign investment in the Taiwanese stock market has been trending up for several years - a vote of confidence in the local economy if any. (I recall total foreign ovnership of the TAIEX to be some 20%, but I don’t have a current figure - ask Hexuan, if he knows how to work his TEJ).
Honestly, the picture above is one of a strong export-driven economy, where you have continued investment, but below bubble levels. R&D, especially in private companies is in the rise. (and it’s safe to assume that a higher proportion is being deirected towards applied research and product developments). The country mainly imports raw materials and capital goods, and exports funished products.
I can continue, showing how the service sector seems to be on the rise and the like, but this should be enough to prove my point.
Now stop talking about single companies and broken light bulbs and get your figures on the table.
How dare you Mr He ! Of course I know how to use my TEJ ! I used in once in 1997, and again three months ago ! 
Jolly good. Taiwan’s alright then. That’s a relief. What’s with the stockmarket then? I work in a securities firm so there’s no point in asking anyone there as they haven’t a clue (the red line is coming down to cross the yellow line oooh look at the blue line - it’s going up ooooh)
I know you used to be a Technical Analcyst but why is work so boring now? Sideways sideways sideways… I’ve run out of synonyms for “consolidation”.
while this post is posted in the wrong forum, then well.
I once did a piece for a former employer…summing up:
The Taiex does better in winder than in summer, which are rotten. Buy now and sell in march.
The results were made based on MoM movements, and I used some 15 years, if I remember correctly.
that’s seasonlity…
cyclically, then we are looking for a bottom in high tech demand, with the best early indicator being semiconductor bookings, IE how much equipment to make semiconductors is on order, but not delivered. Current forecasts seem to point toward a shrinkage next year, so the trend is likely to be DOWN. not good news, and the TAIEX is near resistance around the 6000 mark. Expect another downtrend after the market has gone to some 6500 after CNY. (unless something truly bad happens on the political scene).