Russia vs. Ukraine 2024

I could see a few patches switching hands, but nothing “significant”. I’d give better odds on Putin having internal troubles in that timeframe.


More significant than Bakhmut, yeah?

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Ok, you’re on. Within 6 months, significant loss of territory for Ukraine.

Entirely possible without more ammo

But I’ll take the bet. Will even buy you a beer if you win and I ever make it up to Taipei :slightly_smiling_face:


But that would be a huge feather in Putin’s cap and equally large loss of face for the rest of Europe and America. As long as American support isn’t leading to (too many) American body bags, I think it’s safe to assume it’s effectively unlimited. (Not to say there aren’t a few obvious Russian assets in Congress, but they’re not enough to change anything at this level.)

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President Joe Biden’s top aides bluntly told lawmakers in a private meeting on Wednesday that if Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks — months at best, according to two people familiar with the meeting.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan and the Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the lawmakers that Ukraine will run out of certain air defense and artillery capabilities in the coming weeks, according to the people familiar with the meeting.

The mujahideen/taliban had no air defense and artillery capabilites and controlled no territory yet they prevailed over both Russia and the US in the end. You’re not defeated if enemy forces are free to go anywhere/build bases anywhere they want on your territory. You’re only defeated when you’re all dead. Otherwise you just keep bleeding the invaders until they’ve had enough and leave.


I am not very social, hence the suggestion to have no wager :wink: I appreciate the offer though. And I do not mind losing. I hope Ukraine does well.


The first world mindset that “oh well, we can’t stop them from going anywhere they want in our territory now so we’re defeated” seems very strange to me in light of the history of insurgent warfare. Property is so deeply embedded in the psyche of first worlders that they can’t conceive of themselves as existing without it. Historically poor people in third world countries don’t predicate their existence on the possession of property though so they easily think outside the box that first-world people are trapped in. As long as they’re alive they’re not defeated, In fact, insurgent warfare teaches that encouraging an enemy to root in their land (build fixed bases) is desirable because it just means insurgents always know where their enemy is but their enemy rarely knows where they’re at because insurgents resist establishing fixed bases/front lines. Bottom line is insurgents get to pick when and where battles are fought, which is a tremendous strategic advantage.

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As long as Ukraine fights Russia’s conventional trench war Russia will believe it has a chance of victory because Russia understands the metrics of territorial war. Russia and the US eventually capitulate in insurgent wars though because they’re baffled by a ghostly enemy which excels at attacking them where they’re weakest and then vanishes without any apparent interest at all in holding territory. First world thinkers eventually give up hope of winning an endless war that makes no sense to them but only promises to bleed them of blood and treasure forever.

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Russia failed their meddling in Ukrainian politics to stop political movement towards the west and force them to economic treaties with Russia. Their aim was a quick war to replace Ukrainian government with a pro Russian puppet. To have something similar like Belarus. A yes-man with a brutal suppression force for the population. They wanted to get away with annexing Crimea.
Russian professional army utterly failed capturing Kiev and were mostly destroyed. It got so bad Russia has to rely on an army of convicts and mobilized.
Putin achieved exactly the opposite of what he wanted. Russians are now a hated enemy and Ukraine will never go back to normal relations with Russia.
Even if he can get some territories in the end, which Russia does not really need, it is a total failure in keeping Ukraine in Russian influence circle.
Scandinavian countries will soon be completely in Nato and even Russia’s allies are more wary of their unhinged aggression.


In my view, there are 5 important events in the next weeks (until end of March) that will impact the war in a massive way one way or another:

  1. US Congress approving aid to Ukraine (this would lead to a major change in morale and fighting power).
  2. EU approval of funds to Ukraine and ramping up of artillery shell production. Similar impact compared to US Congress results.
  3. F-16 in Ukraine and equipped with modern missiles to secure more air cover (That was expected to have happened already, but seems like there were delays).
  4. US GOP Primaries: Trump win will be a major boost to Russian morale.
  5. Russian mobilisation in March: Could lead to a lot more troops available in summer on the Russian side.

Currently, all 5 points do point to a rather negative scenario for Ukraine.

Small possibly positive surprises for Ukraine:

  1. Swedish Gripen for Ukraine
  2. German Taurus for Ukraine
    Both would be a boost to Ukraine but the main deciding factor is very large scale EU and US support.
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Leaked photo of Russian hypersonic missile factory.

A classified source indicates this is the last of their washing machine supply once this used up Russia will collapse.

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Not entirely a joke, the secondary market for chips is vast, and embedded systems (even for washing machines) are grossly overpowered nowadays as it is cheaper to make millions (billions!) of more capable general-use chips than to make smaller numbers of less-capable more-specialized chips.

A hypersonic missile would require a few orders of magnitude more compute power of course, but in another decade or two this could be a thing! :sweat_smile:

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After a four-hour debate, 287 of 346 MPs voted yes, 35 against and the rest abstained. Erdoğan is expected to sign the bill into law in the coming days.


While Russian platforms reported that the plane carried 63 people, the agency’s source in the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims the airlifter had a batch of S-300 surface-to-air missiles on board.


Last obstacle for Sweden to join NATO is gone.




“The war is not meant to be won. It is meant to be continuous.”

Everybody is escalating.

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I’m still wondering how far china will go…

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