Instead of selling submarines why doesn’t the US (or someone else) just sell Taiwan some nuclear weapons.
hahahahah. Because PRC would nuke us before the USA delivered the product.
the US is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act, in fact, one of it’s most ardent supporters. Taiwan had a nascent nuclear program that the U.S. got wind of a decade ago I believe and it was dismantled.
I think China would accelerate it’s forced aquisition of Taiwan without haste.
Under what circumstances do you think China would be more likely to attack Taiwan:
If it could manufacture it’s own nuclear weapons?
If it bought them from somewhere else?
Just a thought.
I beleive somewhere in PRC official statement, ROC having nuclear weapon is a declaration of war with the PRC. It one of those hypothetical lines in the sand, I really have no interest in our government trying to cross.
Taiwans strength is its soft power. The acquisition of nuclear weapons either through internal development or by purchasing from another country is definitely a bad idea that would immediately alienate Taiwan`s sympathizers around the globe.
It would be better to lead PRC to believe that Taiwan had secretly acquired a coupla sticks. Leave a few subtle clues for Mainland spies in Taiwan to ‘discover’ and piece together.
The more Taiwan denied possession of nuclear weapons the more PRC would believe that it was true. It might make Beijing think twice about attacking Taiwan.
The US recognizes that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it. China already has nuclear weapons. How can Taiwan’s acquisition of the same constitute proliferation?
I know that the US will not sell nukes to Taiwan, but I also strongly believe that Taiwan can only exist as a permanent independent state if it has them. I hope Taiwan already has some nukes or that there is a covert program in place to develop them quickly and quietly.
Excellent. Just because we don’t agree with the US stance doesn’t mean we can’t use it to our advantage 
The nuke thing just ain’t on. In theory, having nukes would make Taiwan untouchable for the PRC. The problem is that there is no way that Taiwan would be able to develop nukes and all the necessary systems that go with them without the mainlanders finding out too soon.
Putting the warheads together alone could probably be done without Beijing finding out. Taiwan has tons of nuclear material that could be processed into weapons grade stuff. The problem comes when they start to develop all the systems that you need in order to maintain and protect a credible nuclear deterrent. The PRC may not notice Taiwan putting together a dozen or so intermediate range missiles. The PRC may not notice Taiwan putting together deep underground bunkers and silos for those missiles. The PRC may not notice Taiwan setting up a command and control system for those missiles. However, when you consider that Taiwan’s military and intelligence services are saturated with spies, it is not likely that Taiwan will get away with all of those things without being found out. Add onto this the last and most essential step for maintaining the deterrent: early warning systems. If Taiwan doesn’t have 24 hour over the horizon radar capability from either space or those monsterous “hen house” type radars that both the US and Russia have (but that China actually lacks-their deterrent is relatively vulnerable), then the PRC will knock those missile silos out before the concrete is even dry and before Taiwan has a chance to react and shoot back. Early warning systems are huge and expensive. There is no way Taiwan could put a decent system together without being noticed.
The only possible way Taiwan could go nuclear without China stopping them is if Taiwan were to buy all the systems straight off the shelf from a nuclear country and then have it all delivered at once. They’d have to have it all operational in a matter of days; if not, the PRC would attack before everything was in place. The technical aspects of that would be difficult but not impossible. The impossible part would be a nuclear country selling even one part of that package, much less all of it.
The nuclear thing ain’t on.
Jive Turkey,
I believe PRC has radar installation in conjuction with the USA to monitor missle threat. Sino-Soviet split makes for stange bed fellows.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]Jive Turkey,
I believe PRC has radar installation in conjuction with the USA to monitor missle threat. Sino-Soviet split makes for stange bed fellows.[/quote]
Nope. There is no way in hell that the US would have ever given China any large scale early warning radar, and I know for a fact that we didn’t. Sigint equipment, yes. We set up a lot of stuff with them in the late seventies and early eighties, but no early warning radar for detecting ICBMs. We didn’t need to. We already had enough in space and on the ground by that time.
These ground based early warning radars are fucking huge and the PRC doesn’t have them. The ones the US and the former Soviet Union built were up to a mile long-that’s just the array. People can’t live for about five miles in front of them; they’d probably get cancer or all kinds of other diseases that can be caused by sitting in front of the world’s most powerful radar. These radars are completely unhideable. If the PRC had built them, we would know. The PRC would need to build at least half a dozen of them if they wanted to be able to detect missile threats from any direction.
As it is right now, the PRC has no way of detecting an incoming ICBM until it is right on top of them. If we actually knew where all of their ICBMs were, we could take them all out before they could get one in the air. That is why about half of their ICBMs are mobile. Out of the 25 or so ICBMs they have that can hit the US, at any given time they probably have 5 or 6 that we can’t locate. That’s just enough deterrent. This is also why they wouldn’t be able to launch a first strike at the US. If they use the silo missiles in their first strike, we would detect it up to two hours before launch. The launch prep time for those missiles is about two hours and is pretty well detectable from space. We know where those silos are. Unlike PRC silo missiles, US landbased ICBMs are solid fueled and can be launched just a couple of minutes after the decision is made. We’d have a very good chance of taking out their silo ICBM’s before they launch.
Their alternative is to shoot their mobile ICBMs first since we wouldn’t be able to detect most of them until they’re in the air. They’d reach their targets. The problem for the Chinese is that they don’t have enough ICBMs, mobile or fixed, to do anything more than cripple US nuclear assets. As soon as we see their mobile launched ICBMs in the air, we would hit everything they’ve got. They’d have nothing left for a second strike. China’s missile forces are only enough to serve as a deterrent. They can’t do anything offensive with them, at least for now. All the threats about trading LA for Taiwan are hot air. At present, they simply don’t have the capability to do that without us flattening their nuclear forces; they’d be hurt infinitely more than we would.