Should Taiwan Create an Earthquake Prediction Center?

Taiwan Living in Taiwan
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Currently under government rules no one is allowed to publically announce or predict an earthquake, see this link: Chinese: http://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=K0100003 English: http://law.moj.gov.tw/Eng/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=K0100003

Regardless of the current law, I am curious to know how many in the foreign community would be interested in knowing beforehand if an earthquake is about to happen, where, when and the magnitude of said quake? And should a center for earthquake prediction be established either privately or through the government? Contrary to what a lot of people think, earthquake prediction is indeed possible although, much like weather forecasts is not perfect.

Amazingly to me even China has such a center, but under Taiwan law, no one is allowed to do so. It makes me wonder what these law makers are doing in Taiwan. Japan also has such a center though is recently under scrutiny.

What’s your opinion?

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I’d need to see firm stats from existing prediction centers showing that they indeed are worth spending time and money on before I’d offer an opinion.
Plus, they have several seismology centres around the country. Are these different from prediction centers?
Also (and this is the clincher), you’ve evidently forgotten they already have that alligator farm down in Kaohsiung where the beasts all clamber over each other and roar when there’s about to be a quake. No need, therefore, for further needless spending.

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Your first point is noted. I agree that more information is needed on current existing centers.

Seismology centers are different from a prediction center. How so? Seismology centers will only send alerts a few seconds/minutes in advance whereas a prediction center could more accurately determine when, where and how big perhaps a week or month in advance. As I know currently there are more sensors being put into place that could possibly add more time to the alert, but nothing like a prediction center could.

Concerning those alligator farms down south, see here’s the thing though; regardless of any existing alligator farm those predictions are not made public at the time they roar, at least not to my knowledge. I know of several unofficial places that do similar things, but none of them have been made public, most likely because of the law stated above. How many people know those places exist anyway and can they predict for the whole island? The point of a center would be to compare notes from several experts and then issue an intelligent warning to the public rather than just a random prediction. In addition that perhaps these predictions could be put together with local weather forecasts.

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[quote=“JeffG”]Your first point is noted. I agree that more information is needed on current existing centers.

Seismology centers are different from a prediction center. How so? Seismology centers will only send alerts a few seconds/minutes in advance whereas a prediction center could more accurately determine when, where and how big perhaps a week or month in advance. As I know currently there are more sensors being put into place that could possibly add more time to the alert, but nothing like a prediction center could.

[/quote]
The alligator part was a joke! And yeah, I cannot imagine that ANYONE – local or foreign, anywhere in the world – wouldn’t like to know in advance that a quake was coming, when, where and how powerful! :laughing:
As for a warning a week or a month ahead, you’ve GOT to be kidding! One false warning is all it would take! ONE day of the science parks shutting assembly lines/wafer fabs – hell! Even one HOUR! – thanks to an earthquake prediction and there would be a whole bunch of Cabinet ministers and quake predictors looking for work.

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Earthquakes are not easily predictable.

So you want the government to spend money on something that works some of the time? Last I checked the R.O.C. was trying to move away from that construct.

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[/quote]
The alligator part was a joke!
As for a warning a week or a month ahead, you’ve GOT to be kidding! One false warning is all it would take! ONE day of the science parks shutting assembly lines/wafer fabs – hell! Even one HOUR! – thanks to an earthquake prediction and there would be a whole bunch of Cabinet ministers and quake predictors looking for work. :laughing:[/quote]

LOL! But, beleive it or not there are people using animals to do prediction, a farm, that part I have only heard about, but not seen information directly related to it. Perhaps there really is an alligator farm in the south, I’d have to check, I would not be surprised that one might actually exist… :laughing:
As for your other comments, indeed one wrong prediction could cause problems, but look at this way, how many times has the government gotten a typhoon wrong? Too many to count. So… actually based on this theory the government should stop making typhoon predictions also? I am not challenging you, I am just creating a discussion here.

Perhaps this center is just simply a website that provides perdition information at the beginning where if people want to know they look, if they don’t want to know they don’t look, it’s that simple. And the community and the government simple watch and see how it goes…

As to your comment about the ministers, is your meaning they would want to do the predicting or they would be out of work because they severely messed up? I am assuming you mean the latter.

Frankly I wouldn’t want the government involved in any of the predictions, this would purely be from people with a track record and who are considered experts in their field, and I know a few that might just qualify.

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[quote=“Deuce Dropper”]Earthquakes are not easily predictable.

So you want the government to spend money on something that works some of the time? Last I checked the R.O.C. was trying to move away from that construct.[/quote]

Apparently neither is weather, again see how many times they botched that up.

Actually the government really doesn’t have to pay for anything, the public could fund it, or it could all be funded privately.

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Impossible to predict earthquakes … Location? Depth? Strength? Duration? Time? impossible!

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[quote=“JeffG”][quote=“Deuce Dropper”]Earthquakes are not easily predictable.

So you want the government to spend money on something that works some of the time? Last I checked the R.O.C. was trying to move away from that construct.[/quote]

Actually the government really doesn’t have to pay for anything, the public could fund it, or it could all be funded privately.[/quote]

And why would the public do that? That’s what taxes are for.

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Who exactly do you know who has a track record in earthquake prediction? And where the HELL was he in the runup to last March 11? :laughing:

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According to Taiwanese academics and government people, Taiwan has the best earthquake warning system in the world! So there’s no need for a center,… :wink: . Here’s the relevant post (the system is mentioned early on and becomes the focus of discussion):

forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopi … earthquake

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Prediction … warning … completely different …

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Well, contrary to what the op said, reliable earthquake predictions doesn’t exist…refer to the post I just posted at the top of this page for sources.

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I am against government spending on earthquake prediction, but I am all for a place where all of the different earthquake predictors can gather. And I think that place should be underground by the Hsintien Temple with all the others who can see the future.

It could be quite the tourist atraction. I think we should keep the animals in one area … barking dachshunds to the left and crickets in boxes to the right; up ahead you have Romanian pigs with Magic 8-balls, an octopus in an aquarium, and birds coming out of cages to draw cards.

Then we could have an area of people shaking sticks until they fall out of cannisters, earcleaners from the Irrawaddy and oracles from Omaha, Tarot card readers from Timbuktu and clairvoyants from California, ghost whisperers from Ghana and bone throwers from Botswana, mediums from Mombasa hold hands while monks from Mandalay throw moon-shaped wood pieces. It would be the most advanced earthquake prediction center in the world, and a great place for photography as well.

We could let a few sit on the top steps of the underpass to survey the clouds or check for worms exiting the earth, but I think we should try to keep most of this underground.

Yep. I’m all for it.

1 Like
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I thought of offering some prediction for earthquakes.

Based on some assumptions.

  1. The speed at which two continental plates moving against, toward, underneath each other is constant. Therefore the pressure build-up should be predictable. The time of release can of course not be predicted.
  2. Looking for the absence of smaller earthquakes in order to determine, how much pressure is building up.

If you take the monthly pictures showing the earthquake centres six month previous to the 921 quake, and play them in a fast video loop, and compare this to any 6 month time-frame loop video post the 921 quake, you can clearly see that there was and absence of small quakes before the 921 quake.
After the 921 quake there appears to be a quake pattern that looks like forming an 8, the upper circle around northern Taiwan and the lower circle around the Taichung area.

Anyhow, you probably can predict a big one to come within a years time frame but never a precise date.

Another discussion I had with one of my students was, if you could warn the people further away from the epicentre.
We concluded following problems with that.
First of all it should be a really big earthquake. Then there would be a band around that circle at a certain distance where you could have some time for warning and the damage and danger the strength of those waves outweighs the danger caused by panic.
Father away from the band, it would probably cause more injuries caused through panic than the earthquake itself.
Too close to the quake, and you simply don’t have any time left.

Conclusion, stop panicking every single shaking. If you don’t feel any quakes for a year, you can start pissing your pants.
That’s all just my opinion!

It still could all be the other way around and each quake is a warning of something big coming. Huu!!

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My system is the opposite of Hamletintaiwan’s.

Rather than seeing where there hasn’t been a quake for a while (and predicting one), I see where there has just been a big quake, and I predict another one. :neutral:

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Anything scientifically valid regarding earthquake forecasting (like the kinds of things that Hamletintaiwan is talking about) is already being done by a number of scientists in Taiwan. Several of the most important ones are sitting upstairs from me right now.

Actually predicting an earthquake in a way that would be useful for evacuations or something is not possible. I can tell you that it’s stupid to build a building on certain faults, because there’s a good chance they’ll go in the next 30 years, but nobody listens to that sort of thing. Look at how many people are still living in landslide-prone areas even after Morakot. Or I could predict that Taiwan will have a magnitude 5 earthquake in a given week, because Taiwan has such an earthquake just about every week. Not very useful.

If it were possible, scientists would be all over it. Imagine the glory you’d get if you came up with a way to predict earthquakes that truly worked! Imagine the grants that you could get, the papers in Science, etc. Why in the world do people think that this is possible but is being ignored or suppressed by scientists? :loco:

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[quote=“zender”]I am against government spending on earthquake prediction, but I am all for a place where all of the different earthquake predictors can gather. And I think that place should be underground by the Xindian Temple with all the others who can see the future.

It could be quite the tourist atraction. I think we should keep the animals in one area … barking dachshunds to the left and crickets in boxes to the right; up ahead you have Romanian pigs with Magic 8-balls, an octopus in an aquarium, and birds coming out of cages to draw cards.

Then we could have an area of people shaking sticks until they fall out of cannisters, earcleaners from the Irrawaddy and oracles from Omaha, Tarot cards readers from Timbuktu and clairvoyants from California, ghost whisperers from Ghana and bone throwers from Botswana, mediums from Mombasa hold hands while monks from Mandalay throw moon-shaped wood pieces. It would be the most advanced earthquake prediction center in the world, and a great place for photography as well.

We could let a few sit on the top steps of the underpass to survey the clouds or check for worms exiting the earth, but I think we should try to keep most of this underground.

Yep. I’m all for it.[/quote]

Much easier to burn them all alive when they inevitably get it wrong then.

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Sorry, but you are partially incorrect, it is possible, however improvements need to be made. There have been people who have done it using various techniques, accuracy varies. As I know location, magnitude, and time are very possible and can be up to about 80-90% accurate, but not every time and not for every quake. Ranges are often provided, specific 100% accuracy for location, magnitude and time is more difficult. Duration and depth are two things that I have not heard much about in this field. I guess it depends on how accurate you would demand or want to know… For example would it be in a range of 100miles or right under your house…

[quote=“StuartCa”][quote=“JeffG”][quote=“Deuce Dropper”]Earthquakes are not easily predictable.
So you want the government to spend money on something that works some of the time? Last I checked the R.O.C. was trying to move away from that construct.[/quote]

Actually the government really doesn’t have to pay for anything, the public could fund it, or it could all be funded privately.[/quote]
And why would the public do that? That’s what taxes are for.[/quote]

Let me reverse the question, why wouldn’t they want to? Perhaps people want to know this information and are interested in funding it… I’m just saying… Certainly taxes are to fund governmental projects. So which one is better, government or private? There are obviously arguments for and against both even if it was agreed upon to start such a center.

[quote=“archylgp”]According to Taiwanese academics and government people, Taiwan has the best earthquake warning system in the world! So there’s no need for a center,… :wink: . Here’s the relevant post (the system is mentioned early on and becomes the focus of discussion):
forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopi … earthquake[/quote]

I saw that thread earlier. Indeed Taiwan’s warning system is getting better, I am not sure that is the best in the world, I have not read the entire thread above yet, but I am aware that one is being worked on and I think I may even know some of the people involved in working on it. However, prediction and warning are completely different.

Well, contrary to what the op said, reliable earthquake predictions doesn’t exist…refer to the post I just posted at the top of this page for sources.[/quote]

Did I say it was reliable? I don’t think I used that word I don’t think… What I said was is that it is possible, though not perfect. However, vast improvements need to be made and indeed more research and study needs to be done in this field before any firm prediction could be offered to the public.

[quote=“Hamletintaiwan”]I thought of offering some prediction for earthquakes.
Based on some assumptions.

  1. The speed at which two continental plates moving against, toward, underneath each other is constant. Therefore the pressure build-up should be predictable. The time of release can of course not be predicted.
  2. Looking for the absence of smaller earthquakes in order to determine, how much pressure is building up.
    If you take the monthly pictures showing the earthquake centres six month previous to the 921 quake, and play them in a fast video loop, and compare this to any 6 month time-frame loop video post the 921 quake, you can clearly see that there was and absence of small quakes before the 921 quake.
    After the 921 quake there appears to be a quake pattern that looks like forming an 8, the upper circle around northern Taiwan and the lower circle around the Taichung area.
    Anyhow, you probably can predict a big one to come within a years time frame but never a precise date.
    Another discussion I had with one of my students was, if you could warn the people further away from the epicentre.
    We concluded following problems with that.
    First of all it should be a really big earthquake. Then there would be a band around that circle at a certain distance where you could have some time for warning and the damage and danger the strength of those waves outweighs the danger caused by panic.
    Father away from the band, it would probably cause more injuries caused through panic than the earthquake itself.
    Too close to the quake, and you simply don’t have any time left.
    Conclusion, stop panicking every single shaking. If you don’t feel any quakes for a year, you can start pissing your pants.
    That’s all just my opinion!
    It still could all be the other way around and each quake is a warning of something big coming. Huu!![/quote]

Thank you for your response. Many of the things you have mentioned have and/or are being worked on now.

[quote=“zyzzx”]Anything scientifically valid regarding earthquake forecasting (like the kinds of things that Hamletintaiwan is talking about) is already being done by a number of scientists in Taiwan. Several of the most important ones are sitting upstairs from me right now.
Actually predicting an earthquake in a way that would be useful for evacuations or something is not possible. I can tell you that it’s stupid to build a building on certain faults, because there’s a good chance they’ll go in the next 30 years, but nobody listens to that sort of thing. Look at how many people are still living in landslide-prone areas even after Morakot. Or I could predict that Taiwan will have a magnitude 5 earthquake in a given week, because Taiwan has such an earthquake just about every week. Not very useful.
If it were possible, scientists would be all over it. Imagine the glory you’d get if you came up with a way to predict earthquakes that truly worked! Imagine the grants that you could get, the papers in Science, etc. Why in the world do people think that this is possible but is being ignored or suppressed by scientists? :loco:[/quote]

Thank you zyzzx for a logical response to the question proposed. Actually some of what you mention is already happening in Taiwan, however, as I know so far grants are not being offered because the research still has some way to go, but it is under way and hopefully within a few years papers will start getting published. How long will it take to get to the point of having a very reliable system in place has yet to be determined… I do know of one paper that has been published about a year ago regarding the Air France flight that went down years ago was actually caused by an updraft of very strong winds right before an earthquake occured and the flight unknowingly went into. This author has been using cloud predictions for years, he was about 70% accurate on last check.

I would agree that using predictions for evacuations would be useless if the populations continue to refuse to understand the risks of where they live. This is an education problem that needs to be dealt with and may take another generation before things vastly improve.

Perhaps I have my answer to my question, currently there are at least two major issues that have to be solved before a center could be opened. 1. Current earthquake predicting methods need to be perfected, improved and proved over a period of time, this is currently under way, but will take much more time. And 2 that people do not generally believe that quakes can be predicted and gaining the public’s trust is a must, there needs to be more work on this area as well.

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[quote=“JeffG”]
Thank you zyzzx for a logical response to the question proposed. Actually some of what you mention is already happening in Taiwan, however, as I know so far grants are not being offered because the research still has some way to go, but it is under way and hopefully within a few years papers will start getting published. How long will it take to get to the point of having a very reliable system in place has yet to be determined… I do know of one paper that has been published about a year ago regarding the Air France flight that went down years ago was actually caused by an updraft of very strong winds right before an earthquake occured and the flight unknowingly went into. This author has been using cloud predictions for years, he was about 70% accurate on last check.

I would agree that using predictions for evacuations would be useless if the populations continue to refuse to understand the risks of where they live. This is an education problem that needs to be dealt with and may take another generation before things vastly improve.

Perhaps I have my answer to my question, currently there are at least two major issues that have to be solved before a center could be opened. 1. Current earthquake predicting methods need to be perfected, improved and proved over a period of time, this is currently under way, but will take much more time. And 2 that people do not generally believe that quakes can be predicted and gaining the public’s trust is a must, there needs to be more work on this area as well.[/quote]

I’m not sure you correctly interpreted what I said. Studies of earthquakes, seismicity, earthquake likelihood (ie. X% chance of earthquake of X magnitude in the next 30 years), paleo earthquakes, etc etc are being done and are very well funded, because they are scientifically valid. This stuff is the bread and butter of many Taiwanese geologists. Earthquake prediction is not done and is not funded because it does not work. I would say that ‘people’ generally believe in it a hell of a lot more than scientists do, since the vast majority of scientists recognize that it does not work and can easy recognize the flaws in the arguments of those claiming to be able to do it.

The guy who came with the Air France thing is, quite frankly, a bit of a crackpot. The majority of what he’s written has been published in a newsletter for a group that is pushing alternatives to plate tectonics. That would be like biologists pushing alternatives to evolution - crackpot territory. If he actually had something valid to say, it would be in a real journal. And again, it’s not like there’s some conspiracy amongst scientists to suppress earthquake prediction - if this guy had something that actually did work, we’d all be very happy to see it, and it’d be on the cover of Science. But he doesn’t. Again, most people who are able to successfully “predict” earthquakes are making predictions like “there will be a magnitude 3.5 or greater in Taiwan next week.” And they’re always right, because Taiwan has a magnitude 3.5 just about every day. Maybe I should predict earthquakes too - if I didn’t worry about magnitude or precise location or timing, I bet I could get 100% accuracy as well.