Sorry, but you are partially incorrect, it is possible, however improvements need to be made. There have been people who have done it using various techniques, accuracy varies. As I know location, magnitude, and time are very possible and can be up to about 80-90% accurate, but not every time and not for every quake. Ranges are often provided, specific 100% accuracy for location, magnitude and time is more difficult. Duration and depth are two things that I have not heard much about in this field. I guess it depends on how accurate you would demand or want to know… For example would it be in a range of 100miles or right under your house…
[quote=“StuartCa”][quote=“JeffG”][quote=“Deuce Dropper”]Earthquakes are not easily predictable.
So you want the government to spend money on something that works some of the time? Last I checked the R.O.C. was trying to move away from that construct.[/quote]
Actually the government really doesn’t have to pay for anything, the public could fund it, or it could all be funded privately.[/quote]
And why would the public do that? That’s what taxes are for.[/quote]
Let me reverse the question, why wouldn’t they want to? Perhaps people want to know this information and are interested in funding it… I’m just saying… Certainly taxes are to fund governmental projects. So which one is better, government or private? There are obviously arguments for and against both even if it was agreed upon to start such a center.
[quote=“archylgp”]According to Taiwanese academics and government people, Taiwan has the best earthquake warning system in the world! So there’s no need for a center,… . Here’s the relevant post (the system is mentioned early on and becomes the focus of discussion):
forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopi … earthquake[/quote]
I saw that thread earlier. Indeed Taiwan’s warning system is getting better, I am not sure that is the best in the world, I have not read the entire thread above yet, but I am aware that one is being worked on and I think I may even know some of the people involved in working on it. However, prediction and warning are completely different.
Well, contrary to what the op said, reliable earthquake predictions doesn’t exist…refer to the post I just posted at the top of this page for sources.[/quote]
Did I say it was reliable? I don’t think I used that word I don’t think… What I said was is that it is possible, though not perfect. However, vast improvements need to be made and indeed more research and study needs to be done in this field before any firm prediction could be offered to the public.
[quote=“Hamletintaiwan”]I thought of offering some prediction for earthquakes.
Based on some assumptions.
- The speed at which two continental plates moving against, toward, underneath each other is constant. Therefore the pressure build-up should be predictable. The time of release can of course not be predicted.
- Looking for the absence of smaller earthquakes in order to determine, how much pressure is building up.
If you take the monthly pictures showing the earthquake centres six month previous to the 921 quake, and play them in a fast video loop, and compare this to any 6 month time-frame loop video post the 921 quake, you can clearly see that there was and absence of small quakes before the 921 quake.
After the 921 quake there appears to be a quake pattern that looks like forming an 8, the upper circle around northern Taiwan and the lower circle around the Taichung area.
Anyhow, you probably can predict a big one to come within a years time frame but never a precise date.
Another discussion I had with one of my students was, if you could warn the people further away from the epicentre.
We concluded following problems with that.
First of all it should be a really big earthquake. Then there would be a band around that circle at a certain distance where you could have some time for warning and the damage and danger the strength of those waves outweighs the danger caused by panic.
Father away from the band, it would probably cause more injuries caused through panic than the earthquake itself.
Too close to the quake, and you simply don’t have any time left.
Conclusion, stop panicking every single shaking. If you don’t feel any quakes for a year, you can start pissing your pants.
That’s all just my opinion!
It still could all be the other way around and each quake is a warning of something big coming. Huu!![/quote]
Thank you for your response. Many of the things you have mentioned have and/or are being worked on now.
[quote=“zyzzx”]Anything scientifically valid regarding earthquake forecasting (like the kinds of things that Hamletintaiwan is talking about) is already being done by a number of scientists in Taiwan. Several of the most important ones are sitting upstairs from me right now.
Actually predicting an earthquake in a way that would be useful for evacuations or something is not possible. I can tell you that it’s stupid to build a building on certain faults, because there’s a good chance they’ll go in the next 30 years, but nobody listens to that sort of thing. Look at how many people are still living in landslide-prone areas even after Morakot. Or I could predict that Taiwan will have a magnitude 5 earthquake in a given week, because Taiwan has such an earthquake just about every week. Not very useful.
If it were possible, scientists would be all over it. Imagine the glory you’d get if you came up with a way to predict earthquakes that truly worked! Imagine the grants that you could get, the papers in Science, etc. Why in the world do people think that this is possible but is being ignored or suppressed by scientists? :loco:[/quote]
Thank you zyzzx for a logical response to the question proposed. Actually some of what you mention is already happening in Taiwan, however, as I know so far grants are not being offered because the research still has some way to go, but it is under way and hopefully within a few years papers will start getting published. How long will it take to get to the point of having a very reliable system in place has yet to be determined… I do know of one paper that has been published about a year ago regarding the Air France flight that went down years ago was actually caused by an updraft of very strong winds right before an earthquake occured and the flight unknowingly went into. This author has been using cloud predictions for years, he was about 70% accurate on last check.
I would agree that using predictions for evacuations would be useless if the populations continue to refuse to understand the risks of where they live. This is an education problem that needs to be dealt with and may take another generation before things vastly improve.
Perhaps I have my answer to my question, currently there are at least two major issues that have to be solved before a center could be opened. 1. Current earthquake predicting methods need to be perfected, improved and proved over a period of time, this is currently under way, but will take much more time. And 2 that people do not generally believe that quakes can be predicted and gaining the public’s trust is a must, there needs to be more work on this area as well.