I was wondering, being an American, do you think that China can sucessfully take over Taiwan without nuclear weapons?
Or will the Taiwanese military beat back the communists?
Right now, I think you guys don’t even need the US’s help to maintain your autonomy.
Taiwan would probably not be able to withstand a Chinese attack. It would depend on how China attacked Taiwan. A lightning, shock and awe attack on Taiwan would cause the fewest deaths. The average Taiwanese soldier doesn’t care about the country. He justs wants to put in his time and go back to chasing girls and playing on-line games
While undoubtedly the PRC is capable of launching a nuclear strike, I seriously doubt that it will employ such a tactic. For one, the in toto destruction of Taiwan is not only harmful to the PRC’s economy, it may also impute to the leadership of the PRC the crime of genocide, especially given that Taiwan has stopped short of declaring independence. (Let’s be honest, the question between the Taiwan Strait ain’t all the different from the damnable question in the Balkans back in the late 90s).
So far as conventional invasion is concerned, I do not share Grasshopper’s pessimism. It is true that the PLA maybe able to launch a lightning strike against Taiwan. But Taiwan’s air/ missile defense system is presently sufficient to ward off attacks that may render the island’s defense system in a paralyzed state.
A few years back, some defense experts surmised that the PRC maybe able to starve Taiwan into submission via extensive naval blockade. But recent studies cast serious doubts upon such theory. The Naval Service to the PLA does not enjoy naval superiority over Taiwan’s defense force. In addition, virtually all submarines the PRC need to rely on in order to form an effective blockade were relics of WWII. These Soviet-made, diesel-powered subs can hardly escape D&D from the quasi-Aegis defense system employed by the Taiwanese arm forces.
Finally, I like to point out that Grasshopper made a rather interesting observation about the Taiwanese soliders. There’s no gainsaying that what Grasshopper said contains a ring of truth. But i would be rather cautious about such a sweeping generalization. After all, the same thing can be said about, say, American G.I.s in Okinawa :?
C&H,
thanks for the interesting report. the report paints a rather unflattering portrait of the PRC’s military sinew, but the analysis seems to have been based on sound data and, to a large extent, is in keeping with the reports made by military experts in both the U.S. and Taiwan. But don’t take my words for it, I am no military expert 
Also, I think Mr. Nolt has too sanguine a view of Taiwan’s military development. Since 1996, some gray eminence in the Taiwanese government has been pushing for arm-tech. purchase en masse from both France and the U.S. Aside from the kick-back scandal (which ended in the murder/suicide of a top-notched naval officer) this generated, the newly augmented technology/ equipment had resulted in the over-extension of the Taiwanese military. This has actually weaken the Taiwanese military since the year 2000.