Other than “a writer and strategist based in Taiwan”. I haven’t noticed anything from him before. And I don’t see any resume, background, etc. about him, only indirect references.
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I don’t know, but he’s also written this much more recently
Well, figure it out or find out.
You feeling OK?
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To understand the real strength of these defenses, imagine them as a PLA grunt would experience them. Like most privates, he is a countryside boy from a poor province. He has been told his entire life that Taiwan has been totally and fatally eclipsed by Chinese power. He will be eager to put the separatists in their place. Yet events will not work out as he has imagined. In the weeks leading up to war, he discovers that his older cousin—whose remittances support their grandparents in the Anhui countryside—has lost her job in Shanghai. All wire money transfers from Taipei have stopped, and the millions of Chinese who are employed by Taiwanese companies have had their pay suspended.
Our private celebrates the opening of hostilities in Shanwei, where he is rushed through a three-week training course on fighting in the fetid and unfamiliar jungles of China’s south. By now, the PLA has put him in a media blackout, but still rumors creep in: Yesterday it was whispered that the 10-hour delay in their train schedule had nothing to do with an overwhelmed transportation system and everything to do with Taiwanese saboteurs. Today’s whispers report that the commander of the 1st Marine Brigade in Zhanjiang was assassinated. Tomorrow, men will wonder if rolling power outages really are just an attempt to save power for the war effort.
But by the time he reaches the staging area in Fuzhou, the myth of China’s invincibility has been shattered by more than rumors. The gray ruins of Fuzhou’s PLA offices are his first introduction to the terror of missile attack. Perhaps he takes comfort in the fact that the salvos coming from Taiwando not seem to match the number of salvos streaking toward it—but abstractions like this can only do so much to shore up broken nerves, and he doesn’t have the time to acclimate himself to the shock. Blast by terrifying blast, his confidence that the Chinese army can keep him safe is chipped away.
The last, most terrible salvo comes as he embarks—he is one of the lucky few setting foot on a proper amphibious assault boat, not a civilian vessel converted to war use in the eleventh hour—but this is only the first of many horrors on the waters. Some transports are sunk by Taiwanese torpedoes, released by submarines held in reserve for this day. Airborne Harpoon missiles, fired by F-16s leaving the safety of cavernous, nuclear-proof mountain bunkers for the first time in the war, will destroy others. The greatest casualties, however, will be caused by sea mines. Minefield after minefield must be crossed by every ship in the flotilla, some a harrowing eight miles in width. Seasick thanks to the strait’s rough waves, our grunt can do nothing but pray his ship safely makes it across.
As he approaches land, the psychological pressure increases. The first craft to cross the shore will be met, as Easton’s research shows, with a sudden wall of flame springing up from the water from the miles of oil-filled pipeline sunk underneath. As his ship makes it through the fire (he is lucky; others around it are speared or entangled on sea traps) he faces what Easton describes as a mile’s worth of “razor wire nets, hook boards, skin-peeling planks, barbed wire fences, wire obstacles, spike strips, landmines, anti-tank barrier walls, anti-tank obstacles … bamboo spikes, felled trees, truck shipping containers, and junkyard cars.”
At this stage, his safety depends largely on whether the Chinese Air Force has been able to able to distinguish between real artillery pieces from the hundreds of decoy targets and dummy equipment PLA manuals believe the Taiwanese Army has created. The odds are against him: As Beckley notes in a studypublished last fall, in the 1990 to 1991 Gulf War, the 88,500 tons of ordnance dropped by the U.S.-led coalition did not destroy a single Iraqi road-mobile missile launcher. NATO’s 78-day campaign aimed at Serbian air defenses only managed to destroy three of Serbia’s 22 mobile-missile batteries. There is no reason to think that the Chinese Air Force will have a higher success rate when targeting Taiwan’s mobile artillery and missile defense.
But if our grunt survives the initial barrages on the beach, he still must fight his way through the main Taiwanese Army groups, 2.5 million armed reservists dispersed in the dense cities and jungles of Taiwan, and miles of mines, booby traps, and debris. This is an enormous thing to ask of a private who has no personal experience with war. It is an even great thing to ask it of a private who naively believed in his own army’s invincibility.
You mean a bunch of only sons that played call of duty won’t be psychologically prepared for the realities of war?
Nonsense. War, war never changes as our hero in Fallout 4 once said.
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As far as hapless peasants, ChiComs have traditionally made it up on volume.
The question is, can you slow them down enough to buy time for the reservists to muster up and get their guns?
It’s about the advance warning. Arguably, they’ve had over 70 years warning already. Are the reservists in position yet?
The Maginot Line, named after the French Minister of War André Maginot, is a line of concrete fortifications, obstacles, and weapon installations built by France in the 1930s to deter invasion by Germany and force them to move around the fortifications. The Maginot Line was impervious to most forms of attack. However, the Germans invaded through the Low Countries in 1940, bypassing the Line to the north. The line has since become a metaphor for expensive efforts that offer a false sense of security.
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Maybe this should go in the China Uncensored thread? Whatever
I think the consensus is that the windows of opportunity for China to make a military move on Taiwan are October and April. So not likely to happen this year. Though I am worried that one day those planes will crash into each other, and then sh*t will hit the fan.
I have seen multiple videos analyzing this, and I always come away with that the cost for China would be way too high. It’s not a question of winning, but at what prize. The whole economy of China is relying on high growth rates. A war would disrupt everything and it would go on for months. I don’t think the Chinese want to risk civil unrest at home, even if they have the power suppress it. But what do I know. 
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I think it’s safe to say no one really knows what would happen if China attempted something with Taiwan.
I think it’s safe to say that the USA will respond militarily if China does something direct. And economically, etc. And the USA will request an international coalition to also respond in some form.
Regardless of Trump or Biden.
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This is incompatible with your first assertion 
Personally I doubt the US would do anything. And besides, China has now perfected, by experiment and experience, ways of invading and occupying any territory that takes their fancy without appearing to wage an actual hot war (if terrorist groups ever learn their techniques, we’re all f’cked). OTOH, those techniques would work less well in Taiwan; they depend largely on the existence of weak governments/institutions that are easily overshadowed and replaced.
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I guess we can liken Trump’s border wall idea, at its operational best, to a modern day Maginot Line, can’t we? 
Sorry, could not resist.
Taiwan is quite small though – surrounded by ocean. I think it would be comparatively much easier to fortify than the French border or the sprawling US border.
Where, exactly?
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Look at the Serious Political Pictures thread for a map.
China has effective sovereignty over several of its immediate neighbours, half-a-dozen countries in Africa, and two or three countries in Asia. You might argue that those countries still (nominally) have their own governments, but the reality is that China controls large tracts of territory, much of the visible economy, the security apparatus, and various national policies. China says “Jump” and those countries say “Would you like your shoes licked first, Mr Xi?”
Like I said, no hot wars, but the goal is achieved nonetheless. The technique is not dissimilar to the British colonial administration as-was.
China will blockade Taiwan, denying it food and fuel, and if the U.S. gets involved at all it will be to try to break the blockade.
It’s hard to envision a U.S. under President Kamala Harris going to war with China though.
The partnership of Douglas Emhoff, husband of vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), with a company representing organizations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), could generate conflicts of interest for Harris.
Emhoff is a partner in the investment services firm DLA Piper, which has represented CCP companies in the United States and Europe for nearly 30 years and has more than 140 lawyers at its service, according to National Pulse on Sept. 5.
DLA Piper raises questions about possible undue influence on the White House should the Biden-Harris formula win the Nov. 3 presidential election.
DLA Piper has received distinguished awards from CCP lawyers’ associations such as the China Business Law Journal and China Law and Practice and hires former CCP officials to serve with it.
Several of DLA Piper’s officials hold prominent positions on the CCP’s Senior Advisory Board, the China International Economic, and Trade Arbitration Commission (CIETAC), the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), and other of its organizations.
It also represents many CCP-owned companies, including two airlines and technology companies challenged by security issues in the United States such as ByteDance, and Tencent.
That is not going to happen.
Why wouldn’t they? If I was at war, that’s exactly what I would do.
The thing is how could they possibly blockade Taiwan when Taiwan has open access to the ocean and China is already blockaded right now?
As long as Taiwan has open access to the ocean, Taiwan remains more powerful than China.
They try going around Taiwan? Pick 'em off one by one.
By blockading it. Why would that be impossible? The balance of forces are greatly in their favor.
China can take very damaging measures to suppress attempts to do that. Taiwan won’t dare. China has all the access it needs right now for all intents and purposes.
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Yes