It is quite hard to work out the actual percentage death rate, as there is gross underreporting of the numbers of infection, wither deliberately (to minimise bad press, like China did with its SARS cases) or unintentionally (because the disease is mild enough that many people who have it don’t realise or show minimal symptoms). The people in the second category are the real worry, and that is where the explosion in numbers that marks a real pandemic will come from.
Even a 0.1% death rate is nasty enough for a strain to be nominated as a dangerous strain, as Fox pointed out earlier. anything like a 1% rate is frightening.
Thankfully, it’s “only” a 'flu virus, and hasn’t been cross engineered into a respiratory-transmission haemorrhagic fever like Ebola… Still, Gaia has to regulate her pest species somehow, and AIDS appeared to be too slow.
[quote=“TomHill”][quote=“Icon”]And keeping with the upbeat theme, a few words of reassurance from our Health Minister:
[quote]As of May 21, the global mortality rate resulting from the new strain of swine flu stood at 0.7 percent, he noted. If the deaths in Mexico – the worse hit country among the 43 that have been affected – are excluded, the figure drops to 0.1 percent he added.
[color=#BF0000]If a 0.1 percent mortality rate is applied to Taiwan, it means that 20,000 people would die of the flu, Yeh said.[/color]
[/quote]
From CNA.[/quote]
But working further…
83 are dead globally.
The global mortality rate stands at 0.7%
Therefore 0.7% = 83 people.
So about 11800 people on earth…?[/quote]
The rest are little brown people in faraway lands. I’m sure you’ll concur that such people don’t really count. (Those 11,800 are the people who make up the NICE part of Edinburgh, in case you were wondering.)
[quote=“Icon”][quote] [color=#BF0000]If a 0.1 percent mortality rate is applied to Taiwan, it means that 20,000 people would die of the flu, Yeh said.[/color]
[/quote]
From CNA.[/quote]
Is that 0.1% supposed to be 0.1% of the whole population dying, or 0.1% of infected people dying? If the latter, Yeh has done his math wrong, I think.
[quote=“Dragonbones”][quote=“Icon”][quote] [color=#BF0000]If a 0.1 percent mortality rate is applied to Taiwan, it means that 20,000 people would die of the flu, Yeh said.[/color]
[/quote]
From CNA.[/quote]
Is that 0.1% supposed to be 0.1% of the whole population dying, or 0.1% of infected people dying? If the latter, Yeh has done his math wrong, I think.[/quote]
Re: Dragonbones
Not as much as Taiwan, as to the specific situation at hand. The message did turn more apocalyptic after Yeh came back from the WHA meeting. I guess the word was: play it up! Doom is near!
Between drawing doodles at the meetings and fidgeting nervously between seats, he must have gotten down some notes, right?
Every cabin crew on the two JAL flights I was just on had to wear a mask at all times. Never saw one of them with it off. And a lot of people on the flight as well were wearing masks. And yes it does make the stewardess seem more intriguing with masks on as you can only see their eyes.
IN SF, its all not in the news anymore. We seem to have gotten off with no big issue. Thank God.
Only problem is if it mutates into something more virulent.
[quote=“Icon”]Re: Dragonbones
Not as much as Taiwan, as to the specific situation at hand. The message did turn more apocalyptic after Yeh came back from the WHA meeting. I guess the word was: play it up! Doom is near!
Between drawing doodles at the meetings and fidgeting nervously between seats, he must have gotten down some notes, right?[/quote]
Stuck with all those people from all those foreign countries in a small room, he probably was paralyzed with fear he’d catch it himself. By the time he got out of there, I bet he was ready to enact a total lockdown. It looks like he had enough time to calm down enough to simply issue some incoherent apocolyptic warnings.
[quote=“tommy525”]Every cabin crew on the two JAL flights I was just on had to wear a mask at all times. Never saw one of them with it off. And a lot of people on the flight as well were wearing masks. And yes it does make the stewardess seem more intriguing with masks on as you can only see their eyes.
IN SF, its all not in the news anymore. We seem to have gotten off with no big issue. Thank God.
Only problem is if it mutates into something more virulent.[/quote]
So did you fly through Narita? If so, how was it - are they still going nuts in Japan? I fly through there on Tuesday (Taiwan to US) and am wondering if I need to worry about delays, missing my connection, etc…
[quote=“zyzzx”][quote=“tommy525”]Every cabin crew on the two JAL flights I was just on had to wear a mask at all times. Never saw one of them with it off. And a lot of people on the flight as well were wearing masks. And yes it does make the stewardess seem more intriguing with masks on as you can only see their eyes.
IN SF, its all not in the news anymore. We seem to have gotten off with no big issue. Thank God.
Only problem is if it mutates into something more virulent.[/quote]
So did you fly through Narita? If so, how was it - are they still going nuts in Japan? I fly through there on Tuesday (Taiwan to US) and am wondering if I need to worry about delays, missing my connection, etc…[/quote]
Yes I flew thru Narita. THey did have everyone on board fill out a questionaire, and then when the plane landed 4 health officers entered the cabin dressed like they were entering a science lab but they didnt actually do anything, and the forms were not even collected. I think the hysteria should be dying down over there.
[quote]The current measures, which are aimed at preventing the A(H1N1) swine flu virus from entering the country, include health checks of all passengers aboard flights from affected countries, before disembarkation.
[color=#FF0000] However, from June 1, the onboard checks will be limited to flights that report they are carrying suspicious cases of swine flu, Kuo said. [/color]
In cases where an airline passenger is found to have the A(H1N1) virus, [color=#FF0000]the quarantine measure will no longer be employed for people on the flight who had close contact with the infected passenger or who sat in the three rows in front and behind him or her[/color], Kuo said.
Instead, they will be given precautionary medication, he added.
Also, the current restrictions on the movements of such travelers will be lifted, he said.
However, starting June 1, the government units in charge of epidemic prevention and control will send inspectors to the communities that reported A(H1N1) infections to collect samples from residents for screening, he said.
Their main task will be to ensure that the chances of community outbreaks are zero, he said.
[/quote]
From CNA
Lovely. I’d blame the local officials for building a Tamiflu-resistant strain, but this bright idea is a WHO directive. Sigh
And just what we need: one more excuse for strange men to roam our neighborhoods with an excuse to enter our buildings. Sigh
just flew back from thailand…it looks like the panic is well and truly over here; not a mask in sight on the mRT this morning.
on the other hand the Taiwanese I saw in Bangkok airport looked like right dicks with their masks on. You could literally spot the Taiwanese because they were the only people idiotic enough to wear masks. Bunch of sheep.
Now, now, there’s also the Cantos of HK. Flu back with a plane load of the twats last night from Taipei - all jabbering way too loudly and fidgeting with their masks and then touching everything. Brilliant! Those masks offer a warm damp environment good for breeding the bugs, so touching the mask and everything around you is a great way to grow and spread any germs. If I wasn’t already resigned and somewhat immune to their grating stupidity I might have had a go at the clown lowering his mask to pick his nose and wipe the results on the furniture, but instead I just turned away and ordered another drink.
Elsewhere, a mate was detained in Shanghai over night when someone on his flight was found with a temp. He said they came on, checked temps, found a woman with a fever and then picked out several rows of passengers nearby and detained the lot. All clear was announced the following morning.
When I ride my scooter around, during traffic light stops there are soooo many people/bikes around you in very close distance, I am wondering how good my current bike face mask is, should I change it to those h1n1 approved masks?
