Taiwan’s GDP growth to hit fastest pace in 21 years
AND
Taiwan`s Export Order Value Hits Record US$34.88B. in August
Looks like things are turning around. I hope there is a sustained economic boost until 2012, so that the chances for the KMT in the next presidential election will improve.
An economic boost is meaningless unless it translates into jobs and wages increases. Only foolish people look at gdp growth as some kind of indicator. Taiwan’s economy is perfectly capable of stellar gdp growth without it helping ordinary people in the slightest.
Of course you’re right, but economic indicators improving means something good is happening. The economy doesn’t growth 9% without some measure of increased employment while export growth must go hand-in-hand with increased production of those export goods, no? But as I said, I’m hoping it’s sustained so that many people can benefit – increased wages and better job prospects – so that another KMT can be re-elected.
why
Because I’m a KMT-supporter. I know that may not be a popular thing in these forums, but oh well…to each unto his/her own.
Well, everyone has their cross to bear in this life. 
How did you know I was Christian?
You have great sympathy for the wretched of this world.
I have serious doubts for the KMT’s ability to win the next election. People see them cuddling up to China, and it makes them deeply angry. The only thing I can hope for is that Taiwan gets the recognition it deserves. China shits on Taiwan daily, and stops it from becoming a truly great country, and the KMT aren’t really making things better.
If I were a supporter of eventual reunification of Taiwan and China (or my preferred Commonwealth option) then I would say China must have some equity in Taiwan to have any legitimate claim to sovereignty. For example, when was the last time China funded the building of a bridge in Taiwan? …etc. Additionally, such a strategy if adopted would lead to greater protection for Taiwan from military strike. If that is the policy the KMT is favoring then it is probably a reasonable one. That kind of strategy has to be implemented over many years to garner favor and legitimize sovereign claims otherwise it is essentially stealing. I wonder under a democratic regime in Taiwan if that is even feasible given the polarity of opinions. It is the best option though and if Ma follows it and can stick with it for a long enough period of time say two terms plus then perhaps. It is probably more upside then down for Taiwan economically, socially too perhaps, but who knows.
They will inherit the earth.
You’re not from around here are you? Ever seen what the KMT did the earth here? Let’s not spread it around.
Let’s see incomes and living standards go up before we celebrate. As anybody who lives in Taiwan can attest, economic growth takes it’s toll on the environment and local farmers and workers. I’m also curious as to know if the GDP figures include orders that are actually processed in China but booked in Taiwan.
No. But they include the high value-added high-tech parts for those products that are made in Taiwan and shipped to Taiwanese factories in China for assembly into “made by Taiwan” products. These parts constitute a high proportion of Taiwan’s cross-strait exports, which yield most of the country’s precious trade surplus (and without which Taiwan would be running a trade deficit).
I’m very pleased with the way the government has steered the economy out of recession and got it humming along so nicely. The only worry on the horizon is that we’re going to be hit by the second dip of a double-dip global recession, which currently looks more likely than not.
The worries for Taiwan’s future are that ECFA will exasperate inequality, a looming fiscal crisis because of a ridiculous tax structure, the failure of education reform to create a new level of highly skilled workers, and most importantly the changing structure of the Chinese economy. You still seem to have this early 2000s notion that China will do the manufacturing while Taiwan does the intellectual and service work but China is moving away from a low-end manufacturing model at a rapid rate. Its latest 5 year plan is all about raising living standard, increasing domestic consumption, building global companies in the green and service industries, and in general shitting away from the manufacturing model that has been its engine of growth for 3 decades.
Can Taiwan compete? Already SMEs are complaining that the Chinese government has no use for them. Larger companies will be forced into mergers, which as we have seen with western companies, merely transfers technology and management skills to China.
China is changing fast and its plans to develop (and steal) talent and create global companies may leave Taiwan very marginalized indeed.
Good lord, MM, you’re way out of date with government thinking. Things have moved on a lot since the KMT came to power!
The whole point of government policy now, as served by ECFA, is that Taiwanese firms will start looking to the mainland more and more as a market for the consumption of their goods rather than just a place for making the simpler parts of things for export to Western markets. ECFA provides the tariff reductions and exemptions plus the opening of key service sectors; the rest is up to Taiwan’s domestic manufacturers, on their own or in alliance with foreign investors.
Everyone knows that China is being transformed from the workshop of the world into the world’s biggest and most attractive consumer market. Taiwan’s government understands that as well as anyone, and is acting accordingly. Now, thanks to the series of cross-strait agreements concluded over the past two years and culminating in the all-important ECFA, Taiwanese firms and foreign firms investing in Taiwan will have a huge advantage over everyone else in tapping into that market. No wonder governments and businesses around the world are now eyeing Taiwan with such interest!
The current highly advantageous cross-strait division of labor in the ICT and other high-tech industries, which makes Taiwan such a key player in global supply chains, will be maintained and enhanced. At the same time, well established and newly emerging high-end consumer production industries plus service industries will target the mainland as a tremendously promising export market in which they can hardly fail to succeed under the beneficial conditions created by ECFA. The future for Taiwan’s economy could hardly look rosier, provided the worrisome weaknesses of the advanced economies don’t bring the whole global economy crashing into ruins.
Cheeky bastard. 
This was your line of arguing for closer economic links with China just a year ago.
But I’d like to talk more about this later. Not tonight. Good to see you and the family again btw. Hopefully there will be a time Emma won’t cry when she sees me.
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Taiwan’s gross domestic product to grow by 9.2 percent in 2010, the fastest rate in 21 years, according to the Council for Economic Planning and Development Sept. 24.
The EIU report noted that Taiwan’s economy grew by an average of 13.1 percent in the first two quarters of 2010. This stellar performance, the EIU said, “largely reflects the global economy’s return to health, which has translated into an upsurge in Taiwan’s exports and domestic demand.”
Note the quote: “…largely reflects the global economy’s return to health” - therein lies the problem. The world’s economy has not returned to health. The incredible Wall St bankster scam that passes for “the economy” in the USA is a house of glass. The great “recovery” we’ve seen over the past year was bought with about $4 trillion of US taxpayer money pumped into the banks. And that’s $4 trillion the government didn’t have, merely created with accounting tricks.
But all Ponzi schemes eventually collapse. To the extent that Taiwan is dependent on the US economy, the country is screwed. Any US Treasury bills held by Taiwan (I understand it’s something like $100 billion) will eventually prove worthless. China also holds a lot of US debt, and can expect to suffer when the USA defaults.
Europe’s banks are also not in good shape, but I have more confidence in them than in the USA, which seems content to play a game of “hide the turd” as long as possible.
The only bright spot on the horizon may come after the Ponzi collapse. Something will emerge from the smoking rubble of the global economy. I expect that China is trying hard to develop its domestic market, and Taiwan could be a part of that. Of course, that depends on politics. I expect that Taiwan will get more drawn into China’s orbit - like it or not, 1.2 billion potential consumers is something Taiwanese industry won’t want to pass up.
As for The Economist, I once had a subscription but came to recognize what a worthless rag it was. And if anything, it’s worse now - unabashed cheerleader of discredited Chicago School economics (ie privatize profits, socialize losses).
Good question about the GDP calculations. Everybody knows the iPhones (and I would assume iPad) are made by FoxConn in China (which is a Taiwan transplant company). Does anyone know how many of the components are made in Taiwan and then shipped over there for assembly? I would suspect the display portion and maybe chips might be made in Taiwan but don’t know for sure. It might be just a matter of time before much of the component manufacturing moves to China as well.
I can’t remember the figure but I seem to recall the majority of Taiwan export orders are actually processed in China these days. Now the whole pie may have grown that it averages out but I’m not so sure. There is a strong motivation on the part of the government (and Taiwan based companies) not to be too specific about where those orders are being processed and I’m pretty sure, knowing the way things work, that many China processed orders do get thrown into Taiwan GDP growth figures. Otherwise how come we haven’t seen huge hiring programs and salaries shooting up to service the skyrocketing production of the aforementioned iPads and iPhones.
You always need to check the government figures from Taiwan (as with most governments), it’s no use just reading a GDP figure on it’s own.