Taiwan Economic Update

zender: I would imagine it would be something along the lines of the average meal there might be more expensive for the average worker there than the average meal is for the average worker here, but they have a more advanced society generally and what they can save does go farther. To give an example, a person earning $50,000 in country X and able to save 10% of it after living costs is better off than someone earning $20,000 in country Y who is able to save 20% of that after living costs if they both go to country Z for a holiday, yet country X is obviously the more expensive country to live in. That’s why you find so much Eurotrash – people with menial jobs and low education levels who in most other countries wouldn’t be able to afford a trip to the local internet cafe – on vacation. Even after adjusting for a much higher cost of living, they still have so much left over.

Wealth gap has always been an issue in any fast growing economy. Hell look at the US in the reconstruction era you got Carnegie and Rockefeller controlling industries. Give countries a few more years then the wealth gap will slowly close.

I would hate for Taiwan to even emulate or follow the Japanese economic path.

Look at their public debt levels, especially compared to it’s GDP. It’s debt to GDP ratio is probably approaching 200%, and the government has consistently had a budget deficit of about 10%. Sure, households save a lot and invest the money in government bonds, but with the aging/declining population, these retirees will cash out their bonds in droves to pay for their expensive retirements. Then the Japanese government will have to borrow money from overseas at much higher interest rates, something won’t be sustainable for long because their population is aging and declining and revenues will be decreasing.

Of course, they can always jack up tax rates which will further eat into the savings of households and further discourage consumption.

Of course. Japan is driving towards a cliff, as are many other developed nations. Personally, I think the whole world is a shit sandwich and we’re all going to have to take a bite one way or another.

Japan is getting into deflation mode again, which is helping lower income people to survive a little better (by reduction of cost of goods). If you go to Japan, you can start to see many restaurants carrying inexpensive menus (compared with a few years back). I remember being in toyoko inn hotel where they serve all you can eat breakfast, and people were packing onigiri to eat later on. People now consider to be fashionable to mix Uniqlo and LV… the youth of Japan is more concentrated on trying to live a happy life, than just to simply make money. There was a poll where young males asked what to buy if given 100.000 Yen, many would spend the money in a high tech rice cooker… if someone in Europe was given 1.000€, they would also probably spend it in house appliances. People try to stay more at home, spending less outside. That is the new reality in Europe, in Japan, and in many other places…

If young guys think spending US$1250 on a rice cooker is a good idea, they are dumber than their LV-totin’ mommas.

I always laugh at the idea that Japan is in bad shape and had a lost decade or two. Anyone who visits it and sees their high standard of living could hardly agree. Most of them have socked away bags of cash which goes a long way with the strong yen. Plus deflation is natural and the only option after having the biggest bubble in the world and it makes it easier to afford day to day living. Just as Mr.Boogie said there are plenty of places to eat cheaper now there. The portions are still way too small though!

HH: Look at the debt to GDP ratio and the ageing population and now tell me they’re okay.

No it’s just most of SE Asia re-rising back to an economic power status (especially India and China) and is closing the wealth gap between western nations. We’re not all getting screwed, it’s just other people are getting as rich as westerners :wink:

No, in Japan’s case, it’s all to do with their ageing population coupled with GDP to debt ratio. Look this up and find out what it means. Then look at Japan’s figures in this respect. Then get back to me.

Taiwan is heading the same way. Manufacturing heading (past tense actually) to China and other destinations while the birthrate declines. Aging population and less output.

“Importing young people” may be the way to go, keeping costs on the lowdown and keeping production in house on the rock.

Not everyone can service everyone else in a service economy.

It’s a lot different when it’s an island of 23 mil vs an island of 127mil and Taiwan doesn’t have an issue of deflation. Japan’s needs to fix it’s political issue first (leaders resigning most of the time…). Taiwan’s aging population is a lot easier to replace than Japans… Loosen up immigration laws and you’re golden.

I didn’t say they would spend it all in 1 rice cooker, but it was on the shopping list. A high end Mitsubishi rice cooker can cost you 61.300 Yen… I have a friend that lives in Kyoto that has spent as much in appliances as he spent in the house itself. Every time I go there I need to spend hours just playing around with all the “toys”.

Getting away from the topic there guys. I visited Taipei recently and it seemed to be doing very well what with all the new shopping centres, direct flights and tourists from China etc. They’ll have to max out on shopping malls sometime! It’s less obvious in Taichung but there is still some construction of new factories here which has it’s good and bad parts. So I’d say Taipei and North Taiwan are doing the best, other areas less so but not too bad either.

Taichung has been a dump since 1990.

Luodong and Yilan, last time I saw, were pretty much still the same… a walk in the only mall there (Luna Park) is nice cause there ain’t many people around… even on sale season it was pretty empty.

I’d say, like most cities/towns in Taiwan, it’s been a dump since it’s founding, but less of a dump these days!

Loudong has changed a lot. We don’t even bother trying to walk in the night market on the weekend because it is packed with visitors. Around my apartment building, I can think of about thirty new houses that have gone up in the past five years. The Luna Mall can be pretty full on the weekends, especially on a rainy Saturday around dinner time. The biggest change is the new highway that let’s people get to Yilan in 40 minutes instead of three hours. Since that highway opened, Yilan is packed every weekend with visitors

well… it is a matter of seeing that as development or not… for me development would be something that locals could easily see, although I have to say that Luodong is better than Yilan (and I was living in Yilan in an upscale area, if you can call that). Now I live next to Luodong night market, and except weekends that I don’t try to mix with crowds, I normally buy my dinner there. The new park they are building in Nanmen rd can do something else, but still most of the town is quite ugly. People would need to start to invest more in getting their houses clean from the outside in, and the city would be far more than the Sports Park+night market duo.

Sorry, I don’t quite understand your point. Do you think that the locals don’t notice all the new houses and construction going on or that a lot of tourists come into town every weekend? Look at all of the bed and breakfast places that have opened up recently. I can think of four or five within a ten minute walk of my place. How is more construction, more businesses and more tourists not considered development?

My point is that you claimed that Loudong and Yilan have not seemed to have changed but I have noticed a lot of changes since I have been living here.