[quote=“Vorkosigan”]The maoist doctrine which the Chinese used when attaching Vietnam (a failure, but what the heck), will work when attaching a heavily armed Taiwan.
Vorkosigan[/quote]
No. That’s not going to happen.
[quote=“Mr He”][quote=“Vorkosigan”]The maoist doctrine which the Chinese used when attaching Vietnam (a failure, but what the heck), will work when attaching a heavily armed Taiwan.
Vorkosigan[/quote]
No. That’s not going to happen.[/quote]
I didn’t write that!
Vorkosigan
You need a modern military to conduct an invasion. China? 1-200 70’s era planes and one division capable of landing here.
FAS (I posted the link earlier) basically said in their report that Taiwan’s military modernization was a success, while the mainland one was a partly failure.
As it happens this topic came up while teaching numerous higher level corporate execs the other day. Their opinion was that PRC can not and will not attack with missles as 1) they would not want to face world opinion regarding the loss of life and 2) they would not want to destroy the infrastructure already in place. Afterall, its the infrastructure and wealth generating potential that they desire. General consensus was that PRC will someday attack but it will be a financial attack. They will put a few fighters and bombers in the air over Taiwan and keep them there for a few weeks, shutting down all imports and exports. These executives believe that Taiwan will immediately negotiate a structured peace and will end up with a local government similar to that in Hong Kong.
They are just telling each other optimistic, comforting fantasies. Why should China give a shit about loss of life? They don’t in Tibet, or in their gulags, nor does the rest of the world. They don’t give a shit about infrastructure either – the important stuff has already been moved to China, and new infrastructure can always be built in our Kingdom of the Concrete. The PRC’s take on Taiwan is about nationalistic expansion and domestic politics.
Shit, in fact, they may not invade simply because after that issue was resolved, what would be the next issue to hoodwink the public with? Mongolia?
Vorkosigan
Hong Kong never had any military worth talking about and China didn’t invade it. The CR was the opportunity to do so (“1997 is just a phone call away” as one govt official put it). Does China have a navy capable of blockading Taiwan ? Have blockades ever been that effective ?
Army or no army, they lost once and would no doubt again. If Taiwan switched its defence spending to building a world-class country, it would no doubt acquire a lot more “allies” than it has ever done by petty politicking and the diplomacy of face saving.