I wonder if COVID affected people’s behaviour, in terms of conceiving.
It dropped almost everywhere due to covid I heard.
This trend may accelerate as it goes into a negative feedback cycle.
The 20s age group has shrunken already and then becomes 30s. And the number of teens are less than 20s.
It will just keep plummeting.
Not good news for the kindergarten teachers.
Not good news for university teachers, either, with an 18 year lag.
I don’t know why they think there’s a bump up in mid 2020s before going down again ?
There are around 170,000 deaths in Taiwan each year. So, if we’re going to be consistently below 10,000 births a month there are going to be some rapidly changing demographics.
Super aged society with 1 in 5 over 65 years old by 2025!
Year of the Dragon?
Probably. Most have kids in their 30s here. 1988 generation would they be too old ?
It seems highly optimistic.
Yep. Not sure how the health system’s going to handle it. At some point they are going to have to accept that they need to make immigration easier. For everyone, including SE Asians.
It’s a very good website calculator . I’m impressed.
It’s crazy they are sleep walking into it with a candle burning at both ends. Taiwan doesn’t do big rapid changes but they need to wake up .
This is a good one as well and very important economically. The inflection point is coming up very soon.
Can anybody guess what it is ?
Another version with a longer term view.
I think it’s one of those things that people know is coming but ignore. The universities have known for over a decade that they were about to lose loads of local student intake, but very little was done.
Ah but in 30 years, there actually won’t be enough people to move into all those crappy “luxury” condos that people paid millions of USD for, and the bubble will, if not pop, deflate
Maybe you’ve hit on the solution to the China issue. Taiwan will want to reunify so that mainlanders can keep the property bubble inflated. Pretty sure both sides of the strait can get behind 1 country, 5 condos…
I was about to agree with you when I remembered that China doesn’t actually let you own your property. Don’t you “rent from the government for 50 years” or something?
Yeah but if they make an exception for Taiwan it will make the property here even more attractive so the Taiwanese would have an even bigger incentive to reunify…
Hopefully the income increase in the foreseeable future will relieve some of this disaster.
Made me laugh