I still don’t understand the argument of “just open up more to immigration” as a solution to population.
For population x, which is with 0 immigration
If there are y immigrants, greater than 0
And there are z descendants of immigrants, possibly 0 but probably not
x+z+y>x
The issue is not in numbers, but in the age distribution.
A country full of retired oldies will not have a good economy.
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Nor will the youth who remain, but they can always go to places like Canada
I think this is oversimplification of how it works. x is more likely to stay in the country and not immigrate anywhere else. Where as y doesn’t experience the same benefits as y in the country and probably can’t qualify for the same benefits that x gets when having kids. This puts them more at a disadvantage when they have kids so you can expect they’d have an even lower birth rate compared to citizens. Also, a lot of the times, the SEA workers will work here but their kids will still be back in the Philippines/Indonesia/wherever thus making z effectively equal to 0.
Not if the economy falls apart because there are no young people. Now who is oversimplifying?
I’ll just stop reading here
We’re both oversimplifying but I’m trying to make it more complex in a way that explains why more immigration does not necessarily cause a population to not decline.
Was what I said not true?
Does anyone have up to date figures for the percentage of children with an overseas parent? I’ve got a figure of a quarter in my head, but I can’t find any stats.
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As far as foreign students at local universities staying in Taiwan after graduation, I’m not sure there is any government policy preventing them from staying, the main reason they have to leave is that it’s really hard for them to find a job. And the reasons for that are many, but largely boil down to local employers being hesitant to hire them; and the reasons for that are many, including language/communication, maybe having to pay them a higher salary, will they be harder to manage than a local employee (e.g., unwilling to work unpaid overtime), or harder to retain (they’ll just work here a few years then leave Taiwan), etc.
A lot of these issues are difficult if not impossible to address by government policy. The government already relaxed the rules so that they have several months after graduation to look for a job; even if you further relax the rules on immigration / residency, eventually they have to find a job to support themselves.
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No way is it that high. I always ask the question in class when we talk about languages or traditions and it is max one or two per class of 20.
Wow. In the UK, it is 1/3.
Edit. You might be right.
20 percent 15 years ago. Looks like my kids don’t know where their parents are from or I’m teaching in Taipei. Ha ha.
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Purely anecdotal, but I know a few who found work with Taiwanese companies in their home countries. Obviously, not much good for Taiwan’s demographic issues.
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Most of them will be in rural areas.
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I would assume the figure is higher now.
Yes. So I think 1/4 is probably right. I’m very surprised.
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I think it strongly supports the argument that more SE Asians will lead to a higher birth rate.
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Yeah, that is one path for them, help rep Taiwan companies in their home country market … and maybe that could get them back here eventually, but as you say it’s probably not meaningful for the population / immigration issue.
I work for a large local employer and part of my job is going to the local universities to recruit students, been doing it for many years. It’s frustrating, I meet so many apparently bright and qualified students, bring their resumes back and send them around, and … silence. And we are supposedly one of the more ‘international-friendly’ employers here, I can only imagine what their odds are at most local companies.
Lately I’ve been asked more than once to join a government policy / strategy type meeting, they want to know, How can Taiwan attract more foreign talent? So the problem is on the government’s radar, as much from the employer/industry perspective as from the population decline perspective. And I have been telling them, Taiwan already is attractive to foreign talent. It’s more a problem of demand than supply – there are so many foreign students graduating each year and trying so hard to find jobs, and the companies don’t want to hire them. I really don’t have any recommendations for them about policy, I think they’ve done a lot of what they can do. I tell them to go into the major companies and talk to people, not just the CEO or HR but talk to the frontline hiring managers, find out what (if anything) would make them more open to hiring some of these foreign students.
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I was reading somewhere that China has started phoning newly wedded wives every month asking them if they’re pregnant yet. I think we can guess how the CCP will eventually try to solve the problem.
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Indeed, there’s only so much governments can do to solve societal issues. It’s very difficult to change the way people think, in democracies at least.
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Great post. Thanks for sharing your take on the situation.
Guy
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How about just telling the fukking gov’t to read forumosa for a while. get an ID and post a question or 2. Another area this government (whether KMT or DPP) is missing some chromosomes.
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