As I see it, the so-called defensive referendum is an absurd and pointless exercise. It is also a waste of a very large sum of public funds, which is all the harder to justify given the current state of government finances.
I believe that it is the biggest mistake of A-bian’s political career. I suspect he knows that very well, but it’s too late for him to back down. It has definitely put paid to whatever chance he might otherwise have had of winning the election. Some of his recent pronouncements (words of bravado about the loss of the presidency being a price he’s prepared to pay for having the referendum go ahead) suggest that he realizes the consequences of his stand on this issue.
Before this referendum business came as such a gift to the pan-blue camp, the DPP’s election campaign was going very well. By focusing on the most manifest weaknesses of Lien, Soong and the KMT (ill-gotten wealth, dishonesty, corruption, etc.), they had given Chen a very real chance of pulling off a narrow win, in spite of his unfortunate choice of running-mate and the several percentage points of votes forfeited thereby (any of the other potential VP candidates would have been preferable and would have increased the Chen ticket’s tally of votes). But now he has diverted attention to a sure vote-losing issue and given the KMT and PFP a wealth of ammunition with which to attack and discredit him. It will certainly lose him far more votes from swing voters than it will gain, and that will be absolutely fatal to his chances of success. Instead of a close contest hanging in the balance and decided either way by a tiny percentage of votes, he now faces certain defeat by a substantial margin of between five and ten percentage points.
And could it possibly be worth sacrificing his chance of re-election to have this referendum take place? Definitely not! It won’t have the slightest positive effect on Beijing’s attitude or actions, and it won’t draw the world’s attention to honest little Taiwan’s valiant cause, because the world will remain all but oblivious to it – a few academics and Taiwan-watchers may take note of it, but it will hardly warrant a mention in the international media, and very few people outside Taiwan will care to know anything about it.
I am very sorry about this state of affairs. Although I do not have a high opinion of A-bian’s abilities as president, and am appalled at the thought of the current VP remaining in the presidential office for another four years, I do think that the DPP administration deserves to be given another four years to carry through their policies and reforms. While they started out badly, largely through want of experience, they have managed to put some very capable people into key positions, and are slowly beginning to get more and more things right.
As Lee Yuan-tseh has said, Taiwan’s biggest problem is the Legislative Yuan, which is dragging the country down. Reform of the legislature is more vital than anything else. I am confident that, if Chen won a second term, the pan-blue camp would not dare to oppose such reform for fear of what would happen to them in the next legislative elections if they did. But if the pan-blues win, as they surely will, I do not expect to see any but the most superficial reforms enacted, and certainly not a solution to the main cause of Taiwan’s worst ills.
After Chen loses this election, I hope he will keep his word and retire from politics, so that more capable people – like Frank Hsieh and Su Chen-chang – will be able to take over the leadership of the DPP and give us hope that something better may lie ahead for Taiwan in 2008.
